GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #869 gallopin' on in…🐴🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more ferocious than a cage fight where the ref stopped counting rounds ago… 🥊🩸

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin may be in disbelief rally as calls for further downside persist

Bitcoin is up around 14% in April.

Its best month in a year.

After the longest monthly losing streak since 2018, Bitcoin has climbed from $62,000 to a high of $79,000.

ETF flows are positive across every rolling period. USDT supply has surged by $5 billion in two weeks to nearly $150 billion, pumping fresh liquidity into the system.

The S&P 500 just closed at record highs.

And yet the mood is still sceptical…

Analyst Matthew Hyland said there's "no euphoria or interest" despite the rally. Most traders still expect another leg lower by October.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees an investable low forming in September or October.

Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin is calling for a $57,000 bottom based on historical cycle timing.

But here's the thing.

That disbelief might be the most bullish signal of all.

As Santiment put it: "True market bottoms rarely occur when the crowd is confidently calling the low. They typically form when the consensus is that prices are headed much lower."

Sound familiar?

Under the surface, the smart money is moving.

Hyperliquid whales have built their most aggressively long position since early March.

This group has historically led spot price moves by days to weeks. Funding rates have been negative for 47 straight days, meaning shorts are paying longs to stay open.

That's the exact setup that produces violent squeezes when price breaks higher.

Van de Poppe sees $86,000 as the confirmation level. "If we clearly break $86K, there's a serious chance the low is in."

The next catalyst is Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

It's likely Powell's last as Fed Chair, with 99.5% of traders expecting rates held flat.

How Bitcoin reacts could set the tone for May.

The data says we’re recovering. The crowd still isn’t buying it.

History says pay attention to the gap.

So what do you think? Let us know your thoughts in the poll below. 👇

Every major shift in defense procurement creates a new set of market winners. The current shift toward AI-enabled systems, satellite infrastructure, and advanced aerospace is moving faster than most investors realize, and the companies leading it are still early enough to offer real upside. We put together a research report that names five of them, breaks down their technology and contract position, and explains the investment timing. Whether you're actively building a defense allocation or just want to understand where the sector is heading, it's worth 10 minutes.

See the report

In case you didn’t know yet, Tom Lee has an eye-watering Ethereum price target of $62,000.

And this week, crypto analyst Borovik went viral breaking down exactly why it could happen.

For context, Lee is the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chairman of BitMine Immersion, one of the largest publicly traded ETH treasuries in the world.

He's been one of the most accurate macro forecasters on Wall Street for over a decade.

And when he calls $62,000 ETH, he's not throwing out a number to get clicks. He's running the math on Ethereum becoming the global payment rail.

A 27x from current prices.

That sounds outlandish until you actually look at what's happening behind the scenes.

Borovik laid out 4 developments that make the case impossible to ignore:

That's roughly $40 trillion in combined institutional infrastructure suddenly funnelling into the same chain.

The same chain that already settles more stablecoin volume than Visa. The same chain that already hosts the majority of real-world asset tokenization. The same chain that's quickly becoming the backbone of digital finance.

And here's what most people are missing:

Ethereum is still trading at roughly the same price it was 4 years ago.

While the fundamentals have completely transformed. While the institutional adoption has accelerated beyond anything anyone predicted.

While the supply has been shrinking through staking and burns.

Fundamentals through the roof. Price doing nothing. That's the textbook definition of a coiled spring.

Tom Lee isn't predicting a miracle. He's predicting that price eventually catches up to reality. And right now, reality is moving fast.

This is just the beginning. 🌐

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 27.37% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 27.84% two weeks ago. The short-term pool continues to shrink.

One number stands out this week.

The 1 day to 1 week band more than doubled - from 1.51% to 3.41%. That's a significant spike in very recent transaction activity. A burst of fresh hands entering the market over the past few days.

But everything else is draining downward.

Daily activity cooled slightly. The 1 week to 1 month and 1-3 month bands both contracted - the latter shedding 1.39%, the largest single drop across any cohort. And even the 3-6 month group - the final holding pen before long-term status - ticked lower as coins graduated across the six-month line.

So the pattern is clear: a wave of new activity at the front door, while the rest of the short-term supply steadily ages out the back.

Under 28% of Bitcoin is now held by short-term participants.

Less fuel for liquidation cascades. Less supply available for forced selling. A market building resilience underneath the noise. 💎

22-year-old sentenced to 70 months for money laundering tied to $263 million crypto syndicate. The case traces a social-engineering and hardware-wallet theft ring that prosecutors say stole roughly $263 million in crypto.

Litecoin provides post-mortem update on chain reorganization. Litecoin said valid transactions stayed intact after a zero-day bug triggered a 13-block reorganization tied to its MWEB privacy layer.

Coachella Uses Google DeepMind AI to Test the Future of Live Entertainment. Coachella is experimenting with AI-built artist tools, immersive digital worlds, and 3D performance archives that could shape future fan experiences.

Why DeFi is not dead after the KelpDAO exploit. A $292 million exploit and $13 billion TVL drop looks catastrophic on the surface, but the data tells a different story.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A new protocol offering better incentives to lure liquidity away from an established competitor 🥳

The most famous example was SushiSwap launching in 2020 by offering extra token rewards to Uniswap liquidity providers who migrated their funds. It successfully drained over $1 billion from Uniswap in days.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.