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🥜 Diving in
PLUS: DeFi here we go?
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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #640 smashin’ in… 🥊🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more mind-blowing than discovering your whole life is a simulation controlled by machines... 🧠💊
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Holding steady
🏛️ Sovereign wealth is diving in…
💪 Resilience
💰 And more…
Prices as at 3:40am ET
HOLDING STEADY 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin Steadies Near $110K as Traders Await Inflation Data, Fed Signals
After yesterday’s rally, Bitcoin is holding steady - less than 2.1% from its all-time high at the time of writing.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is flexing harder - up 4% to $2,795 and gaining momentum.
But the real action?
DeFi is exploding.
DeFi names like UNI (+24%) and AAVE (+13%) exploded after surprisingly optimistic comments from the new SEC Chair:
“An innovation exemption could help fulfil President Trump’s vision to make America the “crypto capital of the planet” by encouraging developers, entrepreneurs, and other firms that are willing to comply with to certain conditions to innovate with on-chain technologies in the United States.”
A massive shift from Gary Gensler’s “regulation-by-enforcement” era.
But here’s the twist…
Despite all this action, traders aren’t chasing.
Funding rates across major exchanges like Binance are still negative.
The average rate sits at just 1.3% annualised - a level typically seen at market bottoms, not near tops.
Translation?
More traders are betting on a pullback than a breakout.
And that’s bullish…
Because when price is grinding up while sentiment stays cautious…
There’s dry powder on the sidelines and plenty of room for upside.
Macro Tailwinds Are Building 🌬️
The next big catalyst?
Today’s CPI print. (Dropping about an hour after this newsletter hits your inbox.)
Markets expect:
Core inflation: +0.3% MoM
Headline CPI: +2.4% YoY
A soft print could light a fire under risk assets.
And Bitcoin is already drifting higher in anticipation.
But don’t count on a rate cut just yet…
CME FedWatch is pricing in a 99.9% chance the Fed holds steady this week.
The first cut?
Likely September - with a 60% probability currently priced in.
Meanwhile, global sentiment is improving:
U.S.–China trade tensions are cooling
The U.K. just lifted its ban on crypto ETFs
Hong Kong is accelerating its CBDC pilot with Chainlink
And with institutional inflows picking up again…
The foundation for a supercycle is quietly forming.
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SOVEREIGN WEALTH IS DIVING IN 🏛️
When sovereign wealth funds move… they move the whole market.
And according to Anthony Scaramucci, they’re already on the edge of the pool - just waiting for a green light to dive in. 🤿
Who is Scaramucci?
Founder of SkyBridge Capital (manages billions)
Deep ties to institutions & sovereign wealth funds
One of the most connected voices in traditional finance
In his latest interview, Scaramucci gave a peek behind the curtain:
“People worth $10, $20, $30 trillion… are already buying on the margin.”
But the real wave?
That only hits once U.S. legislation gives the green light.
That means:
Stablecoin regulation 🪙
Guidance for banks to custody BTC 🏦
Rules for tokenizing real-world assets 📜
When that happens?
“They’ll be buying half a billion to a billion in Bitcoin at a time.”
Why this matters:
This is the big money.
It’s not retail.
It’s not traders.
It’s the deepest pools of capital on earth.
If sovereign wealth funds allocate just 1–3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin?
We’re not talking about $1M Bitcoin being a moonshot.
We’re talking about it being the base case.
The infrastructure is being built.
The capital is waiting.
The moment proper regulation hits…
The floodgates open. 🌊
RESILIENCE 💪
Let’s check in on one of our favourite metrics: Bitcoin’s supply last active 1+ years ago.
It’s a simple but powerful signal - tracking how much BTC has remained untouched as a percentage of total circulating supply.
Here’s the logic:
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Here’s the latest supply breakdown vs. two weeks ago:
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 62.22% (down from 62.36%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 52.16% (up from 52.07%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 44.86% (down from 44.87%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.62% (up from 30.60%)
That means 62.22% of all Bitcoin still hasn’t moved in over a year.
Yes - we’ve seen small dips in the 1+ and 3+ year cohorts.
But they’re marginal.
Meanwhile, the 2+ and 5+ year bands are actually ticking higher - a sign that the oldest and strongest holders aren’t going anywhere.
Some light profit-taking is normal as BTC inches toward new highs.
But let’s be clear:
This is not a mass exodus.
This is resilience.
The conviction from long-term holders remains rock solid. 💎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
RLUSD surpasses $300M supply as Ripple secures UAE backing. The growth happens amid a partnership with the Dubai Financial Services Authority to use RLUSD inside the Dubai International Financial Centre.
Bank of Japan pivot to QE may fuel Bitcoin rally - Arthur Hayes. The BoJ may pivot to quantitative easing during the next interest rate meeting in June, providing the next catalyst for Bitcoin and risk assets, according to Arthur Hayes.
SOL Gains 5% on Report of Spot ETF Developments. The U.S. regulator asked prospective ETF issuers to amend a key paperwork, Blockworks reported.
Trump-backed American Bitcoin mining firm acquires first $23 million worth of BTC. American Bitcoin, the newly launched Bitcoin mining company backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., purchased 215 BTC.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
How many total Bitcoins will ever exist? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: 21 million 🥳
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins - hardcoded into the protocol. This built-in scarcity is a key reason it’s called “digital gold.” 🪙🏆
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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