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PLUS: Hong Kong ETFs approved
Today’s edition is brought to you by RYSE - the smart home company that aims to become the Ring and Nest of the smart shades industry.
GM to all 64,129 of you. Crypto Nutshell #297 crashin’ in... 💥 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more electrifying than a race car driver battling to win the most prestigious race... 🏎️ 🏁
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🇭🇰 Hong Kong makes a move
🤑 Bitcoin is going this high
🤔 Where’d the flows go?
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 7:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
HONG KONG MAKES A MOVE 🇭🇰
BREAKING: Hong Kong approves Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs as US lingers on ETH approval
Hong Kong continues to position itself as a global crypto hub with the approval of both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
On April 15, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) approved crypto ETFs for:
Harvest Fund Management
Bosera Asset Management
China Asset Management
Although this is a good development for Bitcoin and Ethereum (more accessible to a larger pool of investors), ETF analyst Eric Balchunas warned everyone to cool their expectations.
Balchunas outlined four key reasons:
The Hong Kong ETF market is tiny ($50 billion) - in comparison, the US ETF market is ~$9 trillion
The 3 approved issuers are tiny - no big players like BlackRock involved yet
Underlying ecosystem is less liquid / efficient - there are wide spreads and premium discounts
Fees are likely to be in the 1-2% range - nowhere near the cheap fees of the US ETFs
Balchunas’ takeaway is that the approval of ETFs in other countries is no doubt a net benefit for crypto.
But we shouldn’t be expecting net inflows anywhere near the size of what we’ve seen so far in the US.
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BITCOIN IS GOING THIS HIGH 🤑
Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this cycle… easily…
That’s the latest prediction out from Larry Lepard.
For those of you who don’t know Larry Lepard, he’s:
Founder & Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates
Graduated from Harvard, with 40 years of finance experience.
Huge sound money advocate (money that cannot be printed)
In hist latest interview, Larry explained the hidden tax that is inflation, and why Bitcoin solves this.
“The notion that we can continue to grow debt at a rate in excess of GDP, that is an illusion that will end at some point. What they’ve really just done is stolen from the rest of us.”
In 2024, US debt has reached ~124% of GDP.
And according to Bloomberg, debt levels this high are simply not sustainable.
US Debt as % of GDP
With this in mind, Larry gave a price prediction for this cycle.
“I think the last cycle was truncated due to FTX. So I think this cycle will go higher, I think it’ll be $200k easily…That sounds about right to me.”
A casual 3x. No biggie.
Larry also mentioned that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin reach as high as $500,000 this cycle…
Continuing on, Larry also expects decreased volatility going forward:
“I think we’re done with 80% - 90% down… The corrections are going to be a lot shallower.”
The Bitcoin ETFs have changed the game.
You can already see that playing out with Bitcoin’s recent price drawdown.
Past bull markets saw numerous 30% corrections, we haven’t seen corrections of that magnitude. (yet…)
WHERE’D THE FLOWS GO? 🤔
Time for our weekly check in on digital asset fund flows. (globally, not just the US ETFs)
Last week saw minor outflows of $126 million.
This brings year-to-date net inflows to $13.4 billion.
Recent negative price action has stalled investor activity.
Even when it’s a net outflow week, Bitcoin is still the main focus.
Last week Bitcoin experienced net outflows of $110 million.
Ethereum also had a rough week with net outflows of $28.7 million.
(That’s the 5th outflow week in a row for Ethereum)
The United States saw the largest outflows, with $145 million.
Canada, Switzerland and Sweden followed with net outflows of $6m, $5.7m & $5.2m respectively.
However, Germany flipped the script with notable inflows, totalling $28.6 million.
CoinShares notes that investors are seemingly hesitant now, due to the positive price momentum stalling (for the entire crypto industry).
This trend looks like it’ll continue at least for the short-term.
As it stands, BlackRock is the only US ETF to record inflows so far this week.
After a relatively slow 4 weeks, we believe investors are waiting for the Bitcoin halving to play out. (3 days to go)
We expect to see inflows pick back up following this. 👀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Solana rallies 9% as developers launches update to tackle network congestion. Solana blockchain is tackling its high transaction failures with new update. SOL price sees immediate increase.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is the only fund with inflows since Friday. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has been the only U.S. Bitcoin fund to post inflows, but it hasn’t been enough to outpace outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.
Elizabeth Warren Demands U.S. CFTC Chair Explain His Chats With SBF. CFTC chief Rostin Behnam previously disclosed there were meetings and messages with FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried.
There Are Many Bitcoin Critics Left in Finance, Despite BlackRock's Newfound Love. At a recent gathering of investors in Miami, skepticism remained high even after finance titan BlackRock's shift toward touting the original cryptocurrency.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is Ethereum's current all-time high?(USD) |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) $4,721.07 🥳
According to Coinbase, Ethereum’s current all-time high is $4,721.07
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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