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- 🥜 Ethereum All-Time High: May 2024
🥜 Ethereum All-Time High: May 2024
PLUS: ETFs Destroy Bitcoin
GM to all 30,764 of you. Crypto Nutshell #186 dashin’ through. 🦌 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's less dramatic than waking up as a mob boss managing a family and a criminal empire... 👔 🚬
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
💣 Why the ETFs could destroy Bitcoin
🧠 Ethereum all-time high: May 2024
⚡️ Bitcoin’s network activity
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:40am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETFs COULD DESTROY BITCOIN 💣
BREAKING: Spot Bitcoin ETFs could ‘completely destroy’ Bitcoin
For the last few months, everyone’s been hyping up the approval of the coming Bitcoin ETFs.
But in a recent blog post, the former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, believes the ETFs could “completely destroy” Bitcoin if they are too successful.
Why does Arthur believe this? 🤔
Simple. Bitcoin only has value if it moves. (miners rely on transaction fees)
The spot Bitcoin ETFs will “vacuum up assets” and “store them in a metaphorical vault”.
This is the scenario Arthur lays out:
Bitcoin ETF issuers will hold a majority of the Bitcoin supply. Investors only purchase shares of these ETFs instead of holding their own Bitcoin. These coins never move again as the ETF issuers have no actual use for the Bitcoin.
As there are barely any Bitcoin transactions on-chain, miners make no money on transaction fees. In this scenario, they can’t afford to stay operational and have to shutdown. 😢
“The end result is miners turn off their machines as they can no longer pay for the energy required to run them… Without the miners, the network dies, and Bitcoin vanishes.”
It’s definitely an interesting perspective, that’s for sure…
But, we don’t think things will quite play out the way Arthur describes them.
For this scenario to even begin to play out, Bitcoin ETF issuers would have to hold a majority of the Bitcoin supply.
With over 70% of the Bitcoin supply currently held by long-term holders, we don’t think this could ever feasibly happen.
Let us know what you think in the poll at the bottom of this newsletter. 👇
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ETHEREUM ALL-TIME HIGH: MAY 2024 🧠
Ethereum is going to hit a new all-time high of $5,300 in May of 2024.
That’s according to the work done by macroeconomic expert, Raoul Pal.
For those not too familiar with Raoul, the basis of his research & work is called: The Everything Code.
The Everything Code is Raoul’s thesis that global liquidity is on a predictable 4-year cycle.
Raoul then uses this predictable liquidity cycle to forecast the prices of assets.
Using his ‘Everything Code’ Raoul has made some stellar calls over the last 12 months.
The most impressive were:
Calling the bottom of crypto in November 2022 ✅
Backing Solana to outperform in 2023 ✅ (Solana is up 1053% YTD!)
Yesterday, Raoul dropped his 2023 masterclass.
Within it, he uses his ‘Everything Code’ to make some predictions for the first half of 2024.
First off Ethereum:
Raoul forecasts Ethereum will hit $5,300 by May of 2024. 🤯
However, Raoul also warned to not take these indicators as gospel.
“Don't take this as written in stone. Directionally, we should be coming to all-time highs in Ethereum in the first half of 2024.”
The predictions for Bitcoin are even more bold:
Bitcoin to hit $218,000 in May 2024, before going on to hit $520,000 in April 2026. 😳
Even Raoul admits the Bitcoin projections seem insane:
“The ‘Everything Code’ is new. Yes - it's worked in the past. But who knows? Because it gives us crazy numbers like $218,000 by May. That's post halving, post ETF. It gives you a target of $500,000 by 2026 - which is in line with the log trend. So it's possible. It just doesn't feel like the most probable outcome. It feels a bit ludicrous to me.”
Raoul believes applying a 50% discount to the Bitcoin projections seems more probable.
Which still gives us a new Bitcoin all-time high by May of 2024 of $100,000+.
The main take away of Raoul’s master class?
You have one job to do in this crypto cycle:
Do not f*ck it up. ☠️
“The whole idea of this crypto cycle is: Do not f*ck it up. You can basically capture most of the returns just by being in Bitcoin, ETH and Solana. If you need to feed your inner degen? Put 80% in stuff like that and 20% in the stuff you want to punt. Again: Don't f*ck this up.”
To watch Raoul's entire 1 hour masterclass - check it out here.
BITCOIN’S NETWORK ACTIVITY ⚡️
Today we’ll continuing or deep dive into Glassnode’s Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear chart.
Links to the previous parts in case you missed them:
To kick things off, we’ll be looking at the amount of new addresses in the Bitcoin Network.
🔴 30-day Simple Moving Average of New Addresses
🔵 365-day Simple Moving Average of New Addresses
This metric will flash 🟨 yellow when the 🔴 30-day SMA is above the 🔵 365-day SMA. This indicates a short-term expansion in on-chain activity.
Bull runs are often categorised by sustained periods of this condition. A clear sign of improving network fundamentals and an expanding user base (adoption).
Interestingly, this metric is no longer flashing 🟨 yellow. Christmas day saw the 🔴 30-day SMA fall below the 🔵 365-day SMA for the first time since October.
However, we believe this is nothing to worry about. (yet)
The 2020 run-up saw this exact same situation happen numerous times.
Next we’ll be moving on to Fee Revenue.
As a quick reminder, the total miner reward consists of transactions fees + the block reward (currently 6.25 BTC)
🟥 Fee Revenue accounts for a larger amount of the total miner reward
🟦 Fee Revenue accounts for a small amount of the total miner reward
Periods of 🟥 indicate that Bitcoin blocks are full and there is growing demand for transaction activity.
(this also helps the profitability of miners)
Historically these conditions have preceded major price run ups.
Another day, another set of bullish indicators. 😎
Stay tuned for tomorrows newsletter, where we’ll be breaking down the current market profitability.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which of the following USD Stablecoins is currently the largest, measured by market cap? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) USDT 🥳
USDT is currently the largest USD stablecoin with a market cap of ~$91 billion.
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