🄜 Ethereum could hit this price

PLUS: Cycle Update

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ¦ VanEck raises prediction

  • šŸ•°ļø Times are changing

  • šŸ¤” Where are we in the cycle?

  • šŸ’° And more…

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MARKET WATCH āš–ļø

market data

Prices as at 6:30am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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VANECK RAISES PREDICTION šŸ¦

BREAKING: VanEck predicts Ethereum will hit $22,000 per token by 2030

ethereum

VanEck believes Ethereum will hit $22,000 by 2030. 🤯

That’s a 487% return from todays price and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.8%

This price target is based on Ethereum’s significant user base and economic activity:

  • 20 million monthly active users

  • Facilitates $4 trillion in annual settlement value

  • Overseas $308 billion in digital assets

According to VanEck, the launch of the Ethereum ETFs is arguably the most important step:

ā€œWe anticipate that spot ether ETFs are nearing approval to trade on U.S. stock exchanges. This development would allow financial advisors and institutional investors to hold this unique asset… and benefit from the pricing and liquidity advantages characteristic of ETFs.ā€

VanEck research report

Continuing on, the report explains:

ā€œWhile maintaining its dominant position among smart contract platforms, we see a credible path to $66B in free cash flow to token holders supporting a $2.2 trillion asset, or $22k per coin, by 2030.ā€

VanEck research report

But $22,000 is only VanEck’s ā€œbase caseā€.

They also included price targets for their bull and bear cases by 2030:

  • Bull case: $154,000

  • Base case: $22,000

  • Bear case: $360

($360 - $154,000 that’s quite the range they’ve got there…)

VanEck also notes that Ethereum’s user base has been increasing at a rapid rate.

ethereum

Did you also know that Ethereum has has higher revenue per user than most Web2 businesses?

onchain

$22,000 does feel a little conservative…

But if $22,000 by 2030 is the case, you can’t really complain about a compound annual growth rate of 37.8%

As a reminder, the Ethereum ETFs have only been approved. They haven’t launched yet. šŸš€

If you’re interested, checkout the full report here.

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TIMES ARE CHANGING šŸ•°ļø

This catalyst will take the crypto market to new all-time highs.

And no ones paying attention…

That’s the latest message out from Matt Hougan.

Matt Hougan

Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, one of the Bitcoin ETF issuers.

According to Hougan, there’s been a significant change in Washington’s attitude towards crypto over the past month.

ā€œFor the past few years, crypto has largely broken down on partisan lines. The GOP has been broadly favorable toward crypto, while big segments of the Democratic Party have been hostile.ā€

Matt Hougan

And who can forget Elizabeth Warren’s plans to ā€œbuild an anti-crypto armyā€ last March.

But times are changing…

The past month has seen 3 key moments signalling a political shift:

  • May 8: 21 Democrats voted alongside a number of republicans to repeal SAB 121 - an SEC rule that prevented large banks from custodying crypto

  • May 20: 71 Democrats joined 208 republicans to vote for FIT21 - legislation that grants crypto regulatory oversight to the CFTC

  • May 23: The SEC led by Democrat-appointed chair Gary Gensler approved spot Ethereum ETFs (which no one expected)

ā€œCrypto still has a long way to go, politically speaking. On Friday, President Biden vetoed the SAB 121 repeal, defying the growing bipartisan majority in both houses of Congress. But even this is a minor setback. We’ve been sailing upwind for a decade in crypto. Finally, the winds have started to change.ā€

Matt Hougan

Now although all of this political talk can get a little boring… 🄱

It’s extremely important for the future of crypto.

But Matt explains that no one seems to really care. (yet…)

ā€œI’ve been on the road speaking at conferences for the past few weeks and, try though I might, I cannot get this story to resonate with people. I talk about the votes, and Warren’s anti-crypto army, and the surprise progress on Ethereum ETFs, and people’s eyes glaze over.ā€

Matt Hougan

Once people begin to understand just how significant this political shift is, that’s when we hit new all-time highs. šŸ“ˆ

ā€œThe market will wake up to the fact that we are in a new era for crypto, and when it does, I suspect it will move the industry towards all-time highs. But until it does, there may just be some alpha laying around.ā€

Matt Hougan

Soon. āŒ›

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WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE? šŸ¤”

Today we’ll be taking a look at the MVRV Z-Score.

This metric simply compares the market value to the realized value.

  • Market Value (Market cap): current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the circulating supply

  • Realized Value: the value of all coins at the price they were last moved

A market top (red zone) is categorised by market value being significantly higher than the realized value.

A market bottom (green zone) is categorised by market value being significantly lower than the realized value. (also the best time to scoop up cheap Bitcoin)

onchain

The easiest way to use this metric is to think about it as a gauge of where we currently are in the cycle.

Since the cycle bottom in November 2022, MVRV has been rallying. With some dips along the way of course.

Currently it’s at 2.55 (Two weeks ago it was at 2.48)

That puts MVRV in-between the green and red zones.

Meaning we’re roughly in the middle of the cycle.

We’ve still got a long way to go before Bitcoin’s deemed ā€œovervaluedā€ by this metric.

Quick reminder that we’re also only just entering the ā€œbanana zoneā€ā€¦

Expect this metric to drastically rise over the next few months. šŸŒ

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Gensler slams crypto exchanges for unsavory practices, says spot Ethereum ETFs will 'take some time'. SEC Chair Gary Gensler said spot Ethereum ETFs will "take some time" to launch despite approving the associated 19-4b filings last month.

Bitcoin ETFs notch nearly $500M inflows despite nobody searching for it. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw joint inflows reach $488 million with Google Trends data showing related search interest is still down from a 2021 peak.

Advocacy Group 'Stand With Crypto' Says It's Exceeded 1 Million Signups. The organization, backed by crypto exchange Coinbase, signed a million online members, raised millions in donations and started a U.S. campaign fund in less than a year.

Coinbase Debuts Smart Wallet, Gunning to Bring 1 Billion Users to Crypto. Coinbase rolls out its Smart Wallet, an offering it says will make the DeFi space more accessible for new crypto users.

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Trivia Answer: A) Keys 🄳 

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