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- 🥜 Ethereum ETFs by Summer?
🥜 Ethereum ETFs by Summer?
PLUS: Rates cuts on their way
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Ethereum ETFs to launch by September
🤑 Here we go
💪 HODLer breakdown
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:55am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETHEREUM ETFs TO LAUNCH BY SEPT? 🏦
BREAKING: Gensler confirms spot Ethereum ETFs will be approved ‘this summer’ during Senate hearing
Finally we have an update on the Ethereum ETFs.
According to Gary Gensler, we can expect the launch of the Ethereum ETFs by the end of Summer.
Here’s what Gary Gensler had to say:
“The Ethereum exchange-traded product of filings that were in front of us from stock exchanges — I think there were eight or nine of them — were all jointly approved… Individual issuers still are working through the registration process that’s working smoothly, and I would envision sometime over the course of this summer...”
Quick recap, only the 19b-4 filings have been approved for the Ethereum ETFs.
Issuers are still waiting on the S-1 filings to be approved before they can officially launch.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also commented on the news:
Here’s something funny though…
Even with the SEC approving the Ethereum ETFs, Gensler still won’t admit that Ethereum is a commodity.
When asked whether Ethereum is a security or commodity, Gensler didn’t give a clear answer.
BUT, at the same hearing, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair was asked if Ethereum is a commodity and simply responded with a “yes”.
Remember there’s been a recent push from congress to hand over all crypto regulatory authority to the CFTC.
Anyway, not long now for the Ethereum ETFs…
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HERE WE GO 🤑
Recent interest rate cuts by major central banks could trigger a new bullish wave for Bitcoin.
That’s the latest message out from Arthur Hayes.
If you don’t know who Arthur is, here’s why you should listen to him:
Crypto veteran who founded BitMex (crypto exchange)
Net worth of over $500+ million
10+ years in crypto and expert in macroeconomics
In a recent blog post, Hayes explains that every G7 central bank has an inflation target of 2%.
Despite differences in culture, growth, debt & demographics this target is the same for all. (that really doesn’t make sense to begin with)
In the chart above, each coloured line represents a different G7 central bank’s reported inflation.
The horizontal blue line is at 2%. 🎯
And as you can see, no G7 country’s “reported” inflation statistic is below the target.
Typically in a scenario like this a central bank would not cut interest rates…
BUT last week, both the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates while inflation was above the target.
Bank of Canada
The BOC cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red).
European Central Bank
The ECB also cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red).
However, on Wednesday the Fed (united states central bank) decided to keep interest rates unchanged…
But they did signal that at least one rate cut is expected before the end of the year.
Hayes also believes that the Bank of England (BOE) may cut interest rates sooner than we think:
“The BOE meets shortly after the G7, and while the consensus is they hold their policy rate steady, I think we are in for a surprise to the downside, given the BOC and ECB cuts. The BOE has nothing to lose.”
Now why is all this interest rate talk important?
Historically, risk assets like Bitcoin perform best when rates were low and the supply of fiat money was increasing.
Between March 2020 and April 2021, after the Fed lowered its key interest rate to 0.25%, Bitcoin climbed from less than $4,000 to $64,000.
Hayes notes that this trend could repeat itself:
“The June central banking fireworks kicked off this week by the BOC and ECB rate cuts will catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums… The trend is clear. Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles.”
We’ve been here before…
So what’s Arthur’s advice?
Simply: Go long Bitcoin.
“We know how to play this game. It’s the same fucking game we have been playing since 2009 when our Lord and Saviour Satoshi gave us the weapon to defeat the TradFi devil. Go long Bitcoin and subsequently shitcoins.”
Hayes closes out the blog post with the following:
“But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers.”
Here we go. 😎
HODLER BREAKDOWN 💪
It’s time to check in on the supply of Bitcoin last active 1+ years ago.
This is one of our favourite charts. It’s so simple to understand and it’s extremely useful.
It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Taking a look at the chart below you’ll notice significant dips in these metrics when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. (especially with the 1+ year age band)
Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 65.37% (up from 65.24%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 54.19% (up from 54.17%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 46.13% (down from 46.19%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.53% (down from 30.57%)
Over the last two weeks, the 3+ and 5+ ages bands experienced a slight decrease. (we’re talking really really small decreases)
But the 1+ and 2+ age bands also experienced minor increases. (over the last two weeks)
Since Bitcoin’s price began running up in October 2023, the 1+ and 2+ age bands have seen somewhat of a major decrease.
However, this is perfectly normal during a bull run.
Long-term holders are always going to eventually take profits, it’s just the way things go.
(we only have to worry about this if we start seeing continuous selling from LTH’s - that signals a market top forming)
And when long-term holders sell, their coins become “young” again as they change hands.
All in all, long-term holders still have an extremely high conviction in Bitcoin. 💪
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
MicroStrategy issues $500M in convertible notes to buy more Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is set to offer $500 million in convertible senior notes due in 2032 to finance more Bitcoin acquisitions.
Bitcoin is the only decentralized currency, Tether CEO says. Bitcoin is the only decentralized currency, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in an interview with Cointelegraph at the Bitcoin-only conference.
U.S. Judge Signs Off on $4.5B Terraform-Do Kwon Settlement With SEC. The settlement bans Kwon and Terraform Labs from buying and selling crypto asset securities while agreeing to pay $4.5 billion in disgorgement.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong preaches bipartisanship as Trump touts crypto cred. “Both parties are recognising that they need to address this issue,” Armstrong said, in reference to the lack of crypto regulation.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
In what year did China ban Bitcoin mining? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) 2021 🥳
Crypto trading and mining has been banned in China since 2021.
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