GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #757 connectin’ the dots… 🔵🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more intense than a pilot defying gravity at Mach speed just to prove a point… ✈️⚡

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Odds of December Fed rate cut plunge to 33% as BTC falls below $89K

The bleeding has not stopped in crypto, but the script behind it has changed.

Bitcoin briefly slipped below $89K overnight before bouncing back toward 91K.

That leaves it roughly 5% below its 2025 open and more than 25% off the October peak.

The trigger this time was not another liquidation cascade. It was the Fed.

Minutes from the October meeting showed one of the widest policy splits in years.

Some officials want more cuts. Others want to pause for the rest of 2025. One even wanted a bigger cut. Another wanted none at all.

Translation: there is no preset path anymore.

Then the BLS confirmed October jobs numbers are scrapped and November’s report will only arrive after the December decision. (September’s report will however be released tomorrow)

One of the Fed’s most important inputs has vanished…

Without fresh jobs data, the market has stopped believing in a near-term pivot.

Rate-cut odds for December have collapsed from almost 100% three weeks ago to roughly one-third today.

You can see the stress everywhere:

But there is another side to this.

The Fed is now stuck between a weakening labor market and inflation that still refuses to die.

If growth rolls over without clean data, the pressure to ease harder in 2026 only grows.

And every delay in cuts today usually means more liquidity later.

So where does that leave Bitcoin right now?

Short term, the path is still looking messy:

Thin liquidity, crowded leverage, and a central bank making decisions with half its dashboard switched off.

Medium term, nothing in this week’s drama changes the core thesis:

Bitcoin still trades as a pure bet on future liquidity and distrust in fiat.

We are in the fear phase of that cycle.

Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.

Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.

Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.

Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*

Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

👉 My subscribers skip the waitlist

_{*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.}

Tom Lee is back - and once again, he’s the calm voice of reason while everyone else keeps lowering expectations.

In his latest interview, he laid it out clearly:

Bitcoin might be chopping… but the story isn’t over.

According to Lee, a lot of OG Bitcoin whales have been selling above $100K - nothing unusual, just rotation.

But in his view, BTC is still massively underallocated across institutions.

His latest call?

Bitcoin still has a real shot at high $100Ks… maybe even $200K by year-end.

A big ask? Sure.

But here’s where Lee got much more confident:

Ethereum.

He’s sticking to a prediction made by Mark Newton (Fundstrat’s head of technical strategy), who sees Ethereum at: $9,000 to $12,000 by January.

That’s over a 3x from today’s prices - in just a few months.

The short version:

Bitcoin looks strong…

But Ethereum might be the real 2026 surprise. ⚡

Today we’ll be checking in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

Only 13.09 million ETH are left on exchanges.

That’s just 10.79% of the entire supply.

And since January, another 5.84 million ETH has been pulled off exchanges.

Read that again…

This is what a supply squeeze looks like before the market wakes up. Even with ETH dropping alongside the rest of crypto, exchange balances still aren’t rising.

That tells you everything you need to know. This isn’t panic. It isn’t capitulation.

It’s veteran holders trimming profits while the long-term supply keeps tightening.

Whales aren’t bailing.

They’re positioning. 🐳

Why Adam Backs thinks Bitcoin's 20-year quantum runway matters more than today's headlines. Bitcoin faces "probably not" any vulnerability to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer for roughly 20 to 40 years.

$90K Bitcoin price is a ‘close your eyes and bid’ opportunity: Analyst. Bitcoin’s near 30% correction highlights extreme fear among investors, but it could also be a strong bottom signal.

Crypto Borrowing Breaks All-Time High, but With Stronger Collateral This Time. Onchain lending drove crypto-collateralized debt to a new peak in Q3 2025, but the leverage underpinning the market is now better collateralized than during the last cycle.

Coinbase app code appears to include early prediction market and stock-trading modules. The timing of the interfaces aligns with Coinbase’s Dec. 17 event, where the exchange says it will unveil new products and business updates.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” 🥳

Satoshi embedded a real UK Times headline from January 3, 2009 — a pointed message about financial instability. 📰

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.