GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #884 skippin‘ on by… 🎶🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more tactical than a heist crew counting exits before the casino cameras blink… 🎲🕶️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin drops below $77,000 on Trump's Iran threat, renewed inflation fears

Bitcoin just slipped back into the danger zone.

After last week's push toward $82,000, BTC dropped below $77,000 today…

The market didn't just cool off.

It lost the level that was meant to prove the $80,000 breakout had legs.

And we can’t point our finger at one specific thing causing this sell-off.

It was a combination of macro impacts hitting all at once.

Bitcoin dropped sharply towards $76,600 after Trump threatened Iran again, oil prices jumped, and traders started worrying about inflation coming back through energy.

If oil keeps rising, the Fed has less room to cut rates. And when rate cuts look further away, crypto usually feels it fast. (Especially when the stock market is closed)

Treasury yields also hit pressure points. The dollar strengthened. Risk appetite faded.

Then came the crypto-specific hit:

Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1 billion in net outflows last week, ending six straight weeks of inflows.

ETF demand has been one of the cleaner signs that institutions were still buying the dip.

So when that flow flips red at the same time macro gets ugly, moves like this often happen.

But there’s no need to panic…

This isn’t a full breakdown yet.

Bitrue's Andri Fauzan Adziima told The Block the dip looked like "healthy digestion" inside a wider uptrend. But he also said $74,000 is the downside level to watch.

CoinEx analyst Jeff Ko made a similar point. He said old May crashes weren't caused by the calendar. (Sell in May and go away…)

"The calendar didn't cause those drawdowns - specific shocks did."

Bitcoin isn't falling because May is cursed.

It's falling because oil, rates, ETF outflows, and geopolitical risk all hit at once.

The question now is simple:

Can buyers defend the mid-$70Ks and drag BTC back toward $80,000, or was last week's breakout just another failed test? 🤔

Most retail investors will hear about the SpaceX IPO only after it's too late. And by the time the headlines hit, the volatility has already begun.

This exclusive briefing covers the early signals Wall Street is watching right now, the access paths most people don't know exist, and why the window to prepare is narrower than you think.

Inside, you'll discover the verified signals that typically appear before a major IPO filing, what retail investors can legally access before a company goes public, and the positioning strategies serious investors evaluate before the market shifts. Don't wait for the news to break—get the data you need today.

Access the briefing

Tom Lee just explained Ethereum's recent weakness. And the answer is hiding in an unexpected place.

Lee is the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chairman of BitMine Immersion.

He's one of the most followed macro voices on Wall Street and one of the most consistently bullish institutional voices on Ethereum.

And in a 3-part thread today, he laid out exactly what's happening:

The biggest headwind for Ethereum right now? Oil prices.

Lee's data shows ETH's inverse correlation to oil is the highest it's ever been. Every time oil rips higher, Ethereum gets sold.

The setup is mechanical. As oil has risen over the past 6 weeks, ETH has fallen in near lockstep. The chart almost looks identical when you invert the oil price. Same line, different colour.

So what does that mean? The moment oil reverses, ETH recovers.

It's that simple.

But Lee's real message came in the third tweet.

That's the punchline.

The oil correlation is a short-term distraction. The structural thesis is tokenization and agentic AI, both of which are accelerating right now.

Wall Street tokenizing trillions of dollars. AI agents using Ethereum as their settlement layer. None of that has anything to do with the price of WTI.

Short-term tactical noise. Long-term structural rocket fuel. ⚡

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 25.49% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 26.30% two weeks ago. We've now broken below the 26% level for the first time this year.

Both the <1 day and 1 day to 1 week bands contracted, with fresh transaction activity continuing to cool. The only band that expanded was the 1 week to 1 month group, catching the supply that aged forward from the shorter windows.

But the real story remains in the deeper cohorts. The 1-3 month band keeps shrinking. The 3-6 month group shed another 0.32% as more coins crossed the six-month line into long-term holder territory.

That pipeline has been the dominant force in the short-term data all year. Supply enters at the front, works its way through the bands, and exits out the back into long-term holding. And it's not being replenished fast enough to offset the outflow.

A quarter of Bitcoin's supply is now held by short-term participants. That's a significant compression in the reactive, sellable supply over a relatively short period. 💎

President Trump Discloses Coinbase, Robinhood and Bitcoin Mining Stock Trades. New ethics filings show Trump-linked managed accounts traded Coinbase, Robinhood and Bitcoin mining stocks.

DeFi's new front: VerifiedX bets bitcoin's next chapter is programmable, private. VerifiedX is pitching native-style Bitcoin DeFi with privacy and self-custody features.

Saylor signals BTC buy as retail holders get push on STRC dividend vote. Saylor hinted at another Strategy Bitcoin purchase while pushing STRC holders to vote on semi-monthly dividends.

Alleged Forsage co-founder extradited from Thailand, pleads not guilty in $340 million Ponzi case. A Forsage co-founder has become the first of four charged defendants to face a U.S. courtroom.

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Trivia Answer: Total value locked 🥳

TVL estimates how much value is deposited in a DeFi protocol or group of protocols. It is often used as a rough gauge of activity, trust, and liquidity.

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