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- 🥜 Expect higher Ethereum prices
🥜 Expect higher Ethereum prices
PLUS: Bull Run Signal
GM to all 37,819 of you. Crypto Nutshell #206 keepin’ watch. 👁️ 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more refreshing than realizing you're a wizard on your 11th birthday... ⚡🧙
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤨 Ethereum ETF approval odds
🌕 Expect $3,000+ Ethereum Soon
🏃♂️ Short-term holders are coming
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 3:30am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETHEREUM ETF APPROVAL ODDS 🤨
BREAKING: JP Morgan analysts predicts 50% chance of spot Ethereum ETF in May
JPMorgan believe the approval odds for a spot Ethereum ETF are currently 50%.
Managing Director for JPMorgan Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said:
“In our opinion, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in May, it would need to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to bitcoin) rather than a security … This is far from given, and I wouldn’t put more than a 50% chance to the SEC classifying Ethereum as a commodity before May.”
For the SEC to approve the Ethereum ETFs they would need to classify Ethereum as a commodity.
Which they haven’t done yet.
Gensler’s statement following the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs made it clear that Bitcoin is currently the only crypto commodity in their eyes.
“As I’ve said in the past, and without prejudging any one crypto asset, the vast majority of crypto assets are investment contracts and thus subject to the federal securities laws.”
However, the SEC recently approved Ethereum futures ETFs…
ETF analyst James Seyffart takes this as a sign that the SEC has therefore implicitly accepted Ether as a commodity.
“By approving those Ethereum futures ETFs, they’re implicitly accepting those Ethereum futures as commodities futures,”
P.S In our exclusive interview with Raoul Pal, he thought approval odds of an Ethereum ETF were closer to 75%.
However, he expects a delay, with approval in August.
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EXPECT $3,000+ ETHEREUM SOON 🌕
We knew with very high likelihood the Bitcoin ETF was going to be approved since June 2023.
Why?
Because BlackRock submitted an ETF application.
BlackRock essentially never loses when it comes to ETFs.
With the approval of their spot Bitcoin ETF, their win to loss ratio is now: 576 approvals to 1 denial.
They don’t lose.
We now know with very high likelihood that the Ethereum ETF is going to be approved.
Why?
Because BlackRock has an active application.
That’s why today’s expert, Pentoshi, believes we are about to see a $3,000+ Ethereum.
We don’t love technical analysis, but it does have some merit.
The best technical analyst in the crypto space? Pentoshi.
Because of his wicked accurate calls, Pentoshi has racked up over 700,000+ loyal followers. Also, he uses a penguin as his identity. 🐧
In his latest tweet, he showed he was targeting Ethereum to approach $3,400+ in late March / early April.
As we approach the deadline for the Ethereum ETF, investors are going to get FOMO. We all saw what happened in the lead-up to the Bitcoin ETF.
An Ethereum ETF also has one major benefit over the Bitcoin ETF - Yield.
Staked Ethereum receives a yield. This means an Ethereum ETF will likely pay out dividends.
If there’s one thing institutions & wealthy boomers love, it’s yield.
If you missed the build-up to the Bitcoin ETF, don’t make the same mistake twice.
Onwards & upwards for Ethereum. 🌕
SHORT-TERM HOLDERS ARE COMING🏃♂️
Today we’ll be taking a look at one of the most powerful on-chain metrics.
The Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL) visually breaks down the balance of wealth in the Bitcoin Network. ⚖️
RHODL weighs active supply bands by their realized USD value as a proportion of the Realized Cap.
For example, A 1y-2y age bracket with a value of 5% indicates 5% of the Realized cap USD value is derived from coins aged between 1y and 2y.
(The realized price is measured as the price a coin was last moved at)
In the chart below we’ve filtered it down to only show age bands less than 3 months.
The darker the colour, the younger the age band.
Here’s the breakdown:
1m-3m: 10.16%
1w-1m: 10.23%
1d-1w: 5.40%
24h: 1.05%
That’s 26.84% of Bitcoin’s realized cap being made up of coins less than 3 months old. (about usual for this point in the cycle)
Peaks in Bitcoin’s price coincide with peaks in the amount of short-term holders - this is what we call FOMO (fear of missing out).
This is when absolutely everybody is talking about Bitcoin.
When you’re grandma asks you how to buy Bitcoin, it may be time to sell…
Regardless, we’ve still got a loooong way to go before we’re anywhere near those levels. (Check out 2021 & 2017)
Still only very early stages of the bull-run. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Over 4k Solana users lost more than $4 million to phishing attacks last month. One of the phishing attackers of last month has already made a profit of over $1 million by converting stolen USDC to ETH using AllBridge.
How low can the Bitcoin price go? After the green light for Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin's price teeters, sparking debate on how much it could drop.
The launch of the spot bitcoin ETF is just the beginning. There were a number of reasons why spot bitcoin ETFs saw a slower start than expected — but things might change in the long run.
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What hash function does Bitcoin use? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) SHA-256 🥳
he SHA-256 function that Bitcoin uses is short for “Secure Hash Algorithm” and was designed by the United States National Security Agency (NSA).
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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