GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #983 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more careful not to trip the alarm than a spy dangling on wires over a white vault floor while one drop of sweat heads for the tiles… 🕵️💧

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin steadies as soft PCE cools October Fed rate hike bets

The Fed's favourite inflation gauge came in cooler than forecast on Wednesday, and traders slashed their bets on an October rate hike.

Core PCE rose 3.0% over the past year against the 3.3% economists expected, and the odds of a hike fell from around 70% earlier in the week to under 50%.

(PCE is the price index behind the Fed's 2% inflation target, so a soft reading takes some heat off the rate-setters.)

Bitcoin jumped above $85,000 within the hour, then surrendered the whole move and was trading near $83,600 by the end of the US day.

Yields on 10-year Treasury’s rose anyway, to 5.29%, their sixth daily gain in a row, while the 30-year hit 5.64%.

Those long-term rates are set by bond buyers rather than the Fed, and they're still demanding more to lend to Washington for a decade or longer.

Earlier this week gold fell harder than Bitcoin on an Iran headline, a sign the selling was coming through bonds rather than the war.

On Wednesday the hike odds fell and yields rose anyway, so for now it's bond investors who are capping Bitcoin.

The demand hasn't dried up, to be fair.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $66 million on Tuesday, stretching their inflow streak to nine sessions and about $3.1 billion.

Bitcoin also finished the quarter up about 43%, with Ether up about 71%.

Protecting gains that size gets harder while long-term yields keep going up.

For anyone holding Bitcoin, where the 10-year goes from here matters more than what the Fed does in October… 🚀

Over 4 million people have had the same lightbulb moment.

Morning Brew is a free daily newsletter that breaks down what's happening in business, finance, and tech — clearly, quickly, and with enough personality to make it the best email in your inbox.

No yelling. No filler. Just the news, finally making sense.

Try it for free

Matt Hougan has a theory for why crypto rallied after the Clarity Act died in the Senate.

He's the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management and one of the sharpest voices on crypto ETFs and institutional adoption.

Here's what he wrote in his weekly memo:

The bill fell short of the 60 votes it needed on September 15, and by his count Bitcoin's up 8% since, with NEAR up 104% and Uniswap up 49%.

His read is that the industry gave up a lot to get Clarity this close, and the failure handed those concessions back.

Clarity's final text banned platforms from paying any interest or yield on stablecoins, with fines of up to $5 million per violation.

With the bill dead, the 2025 GENIUS Act still sets the rules, and it only stops issuers from paying interest, so exchanges like Coinbase can keep paying rewards.

The SEC moved next, letting tokenized US stocks trade on-chain two days after the vote, then saying a buyback announcement on a working network doesn't turn a token into a security.

Hougan reckons that's part of why tokens that spend their fees buying back supply have run hardest since.

None of it changes much for Bitcoin, which is already treated as a commodity, and that goes some way to explaining why it's trailing NEAR and Uniswap.

The risk is in his memo too… rules set by regulators aren't law, and a new administration in January 2029 could install a tougher SEC and CFTC.

He isn't overly worried, betting crypto will be too woven into big finance by then to unwind.

Crypto traded a law for a head start, and the next administration can rewrite the rules that head start runs on. ⚖️

Time for a check in on Ethereum's supply side dynamics.

To do that we'll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.

Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain's security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.

43.86 million ETH is now locked in staking, up from 43.33 million two weeks ago.

Another record, and this time the pace picked up.

Staking drew in about 525,000 ETH this fortnight, up from the 482,000 added the period before.

That ends a run of three straight slowdowns, from 740,000 to 550,000 to 482,000.

It works out to roughly 37,500 ETH a day heading into lock-up.

The supply that can actually reach an exchange is still shrinking, and this fortnight it shrank faster. 🔒

Ex-NCA Officer Must Repay $2.4M for Bitcoin He Stole When It Was Worth $77K. Paul Chowles stole 50 BTC seized in a Silk Road 2.0 probe in 2017 and is already serving five and a half years.

Crypto industry gave $8 million to Clarity Act lobbyists who didn't close the deal. Federal disclosures put Coinbase's share at $2.2 million, out of $13 million the industry spent lobbying in the first half of 2026.

Bitget ‘gradually back to usual’ as protection fund reaches $309M. CEO Gracy Chen says withdrawals for all tokens resume Friday, with bitcoin, ether and USDT already restored after the $388 million theft.

White House weighs new CFTC event contract rules in growing prediction market power struggle. Two CFTC proposals under White House review would bring event contracts into the swap definition and exclude casino-style gambling products.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Hal Finney 🥳

Satoshi sent Finney 10 BTC on 12 January 2009, in block 170. Finney was a cryptographer and one of the first people to run the Bitcoin software after launch.

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.