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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🔁 The four-year cycle is over?
🔥 Legacy of fire
📉 It keeps going lower
💰 And more…
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THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE IS OVER? 🔁
BREAKING: Bitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead
The four-year Bitcoin cycle? Dead.
That’s the verdict from Arthur Hayes - and his reasoning flips every old model on its head.
In his new essay “Long Live the King!” the BitMEX co-founder argues that Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets were never about halvings.
They were about liquidity.
“When the price of money rises and the supply falls, Bitcoin crashes… When money is cheap and plentiful, it soars.”
That, he says, is why this cycle is different.
Trump wants to “run it hot,” the Fed is already cutting rates with inflation still above target, and China’s moving to end deflation - not tighten.
In Hayes’ words:
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”
In short: the halving clock doesn’t matter anymore.
It’s always been about liquidity.
As CoinDesk put it:
“Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market in the coming months as supportive monetary conditions prevail.”
And Hayes agrees - this isn’t a top forming, it’s a new regime.
The 4-year cycle may be dead… but the bull market isn’t.
Long live the King. 🚀
LEGACY OF FIRE 🔥
Michael Saylor - Bitcoin’s biggest champion - just dropped a bombshell in his latest interview.
He was asked: When you pass away, what happens to your Bitcoin?
Here’s how he answered:
“If I burn those keys, then I have made everybody in the network that much richer and more powerful forever… I gave the most power to the person that believed the most what I believe.”
Here’s what makes this so wild and so telling:
You already know Michael Saylor:
As head of MicroStrategy, he’s led one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
Personally, Saylor has accumulated 17,000+ BTC, worth over $2+ billion USD.
He’s not just an institutional promoter - he’s put his own life savings where his mouth is.
What’s he really saying?
He’s hinting at something deeper than a legacy plan.
Burn his keys and his Bitcoin becomes permanently removed, shrinking the tradable supply for everyone else.
No inheritance. No pass-down. Just exit, and the network inherits.
His belief?
Bitcoin’s strength lies in its capped supply.
As people pass away or lose keys, coins will vanish - forever.
It’s not just about accumulation.
It’s about deflation by mortality.
Bitcoin has no top, because fiat has no bottom. 🖨️
IT KEEPS GOING LOWER 📉
Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Here’s how to interpret this metric:
Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂
Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻
Just 2,830,720 BTC now sit on exchanges - barely 14.2% of total supply.
Since January, another 248,333 BTC (worth roughly $30.2 billion) has been pulled off the market.
We haven’t seen balances this low since 2019, when Bitcoin traded near $8,000.
And this time, it’s not retail…
It’s institutions, corporate treasuries, and long-term holders quietly draining supply and locking it away.
History couldn’t be clearer: when liquidity dries up, Bitcoin doesn’t drift sideways.
It detonates. 💥🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Senator Lummis pushes tax break for small Bitcoin payments. Could it unlock everyday adoption? Senator Lummis aims to make Bitcoin everyday money by proposing tax exemptions for small transactions, reducing friction in daily crypto use.
Massachusetts Bitcoin reserve bill gets lukewarm response at hearing. Committee members, during a Tuesday hearing in Massachusetts’ legislature, had no questions regarding proposed crypto reserve bills that were first introduced in February.
New Record Will Have to Wait. Silver hit $50 per ounce for the first time ever, but that milestone sparked a fast bout of profit-taking.
Senate Democrats' DeFi legislative proposal draws fire from committee Republicans, crypto advocates. A new proposal from Senate Democrats aimed at preventing illicit activity through DeFi is getting heat from the crypto industry.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What does the Puell Multiple measure in Bitcoin analysis?
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: Miner revenue relative to historical norms🥳
The Puell Multiple gauges when miner revenues are unusually high or low — a key cycle indicator. 📈
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.