🥜 First lower, then higher

PLUS: Tariffs are here

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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #590 keepin’ pace… 🐆🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more heartwarming than a toy cowboy and space ranger finding their way back home... 🤠🚀

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 😲 Tariffs are here

  • 🎢 First lower, then higher

  • 📉 Historic lows

  • 💰 And more…

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Prices as at 3:25am ET

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TARIFFS ARE HERE 😲

BREAKING: Crypto markets fall after Trump lays out sweeping reciprocal tariffs

At the start of the week, we warned you volatility was coming

And here it is.

After an initial pop, crypto and stocks began tumbling as President Trump unleashed a wave of sweeping tariffs.

BTC

We knew tariffs were coming.

But not like this…

Here’s what went down:

Trump dropped a 10% baseline tariff on nearly 200 countries - but some were hit much harder:

  • 🇨🇳 China: 34%

  • 🇪🇺 EU: 20%

  • 🇯🇵 Japan: 24%

In his executive order, Trump declared:

“The trading relationship between the United States and its trading partners has become highly unbalanced.”

Donald Trump

As soon as the intensity of these tariffs was revealed, risk assets began selling off around the world:

  • S&P 500 erased $2 trillion in market cap

  • Nasdaq futures dropped nearly 900 points

  • Bitcoin fell ~6.45% from ~$87,900 down to ~$82,600

  • Ethereum and Solana dropped over 6%

  • Even Trump’s memecoin fell 7.81%

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index collapsed into “Extreme Fear” territory at 25.

And while economists debate whether these tariffs will actually fuel inflation… markets are pricing in one thing: uncertainty.

And remember…

Markets absolutely hate uncertainty.

But Trump also made another very important announcement that seems to be going a little under the radar

“And now we are going to pass the largest tax cuts in American history. And we will not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits.”

Donald Trump

Buckle up.

Q2 is just getting started.

Kaizen
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FIRST LOWER, THEN HIGHER 🎢 

Larry Lepard is sounding the alarm — we’re headed lower.

Short-term? Expect a dip.

But long-term? A massive run is coming.

Larry Lepard

Quick reminder on Larry:

  • Founder & Managing Partner at Equity Management Associates 💼

  • Harvard grad with 40+ years investing experience 🎓

  • Fierce advocate for sound money and anti-Fed policies 🧠

In his latest interview, Lepard broke down what he sees coming for Bitcoin and the broader macro landscape.

To start, Larry’s expecting some downside in the near term:

We could see something in the high 70’s… which I know is not what people want to hear.”

Larry Lepard

Larry thinks there’s still room for a pullback. But he doesn’t think it will last long.

Why?

Because the Fed is already quietly pivoting — slashing quantitative tightening from $25B/month to just $5B.

That’s a big cut and a concession… I think it’s to help Trump out.”

Larry Lepard

Lepard believes when the market rolls over — stocks, economy, employment — the Fed will step in hard:

They’re going to cut… and when that happens, Bitcoin’s going to go the other way.”

Larry Lepard

Finally, Larry gave a year-end target:

“I told Nico I think Bitcoin could be $140K to $250K by December.

Larry Lepard

Yes, there might be short-term pain.

But Lepard’s macro view is clear: Bitcoin wins when the Fed prints.

And make no mistake — the Fed will print. 🖨️

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HISTORIC LOWS 📉

Today we’ll be checking in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

  • Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

  • Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

According to Glassnode, there are 16.84 million ETH on exchanges - that’s just 13.95% of the total circulating supply.

Even better? This number has dropped by 730,619 ETH in just the last two weeks - worth roughly $1.34 billion at current prices.

Despite all the FUD swirling around ETH, long-term holders aren’t flinching.

Exchange balances are still hovering near historic lows - a strong sign that supply is tightening.

And when supply dries up

You know what tends to happen next. 🚀 

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

BlackRock approved to offer crypto services in UK, expanding digital asset footprint. BlackRock's UK registration unlocks crypto ETPs but maintains strict control over new client onboarding and fund handling.

VanEck eyes BNB ETF with latest Delaware trust filing. VanEck has filed to register a Delaware trust company for a potential spot BNB ETF in the United States, marking a first for the crypto asset.

Share Fidelity Lets Investors Directly Invest in Crypto Through New IRA Plan. Clients of the brokerage firm have increasingly voiced interest in a tax-advantaged way to trade and hold crypto, a person familiar with the matter, said.

Standard Chartered says Avalanche's AVAX token price could surge to $250 by 2029. Avalanche’s recent Etna upgrade has made it cheaper and more appealing for developers to build.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

  • Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Which cryptocurrency introduced the concept of smart contracts?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

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Trivia Answer: Ethereum 🥳

The smart contracts introduced by Ethereum are considered fundamental building blocks for decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) applications.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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