GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #859 deliverin' the news… 📮🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more menacing than a quiet neighbour whose basement has too many locks… 🏠🔒

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

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BREAKING: Bitcoin slips below $71,000 as Trump orders U.S. to join Iran in blockade of Strait of Hormuz

The ceasefire lasted five days…

After 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, U.S. and Iranian officials walked away with nothing.

Iran refused to give up its nuclear program. Trump called it the only issue that "really mattered."

Hours later, he ordered the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

"No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," Trump posted on Truth Social, calling Iran's tolls "world extortion" and ordering the Navy to destroy mines laid across the waterway.

Bitcoin dropped from $73,000 to below $71,000 on the news. Oil futures spiked 9.5% to $105 a barrel as U.S. futures markets opened.

The ceasefire rally from last week has been almost entirely erased.

The stakes are rising.

U.S. CPI inflation has already jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%, and analysts at The Kobeissi Letter warned that further escalation could push it above 4%.

Strategic oil reserves, which have been covering a 5 million barrel per day shortfall since the war began, are approaching their limits.

If those buffers run dry without a resolution, the supply gap could double.

But not everyone is panicking.

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said the market has already flushed out most of the weak hands.

After a 50% drawdown from October's highs, he sees $65,000 as solid support and believes a base is forming.

Oil futures remain in backwardation, which signals markets still expect a resolution rather than a prolonged crisis.

The institutional picture backs that up.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $786 million in inflows last week, the strongest since February. Morgan Stanley's new MSBT fund pulled in $46 million alone.

And as Van de Poppe put it, the economy may now be too weak for the Fed to do anything other than print. 🚀

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Raoul Pal just boiled the entire bull case down to a single tweet. And 416,000 people read it in the first couple of days.

Pal is a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and the founder of Real Vision.

He tracks global liquidity the way most people track the weather. And when he says something this simple, it's because the signal is too clear to complicate.

Here's exactly what he posted:

6 indicators.

Every single one of them pointing up.

At the same time.

Across the biggest economies on the planet.

This is the exact macro backdrop that has driven every major Bitcoin rally in history.

Global liquidity has a 90% correlation to Bitcoin since 2012.

When it expands, risk assets expand with it. When M2 grows, capital flows into hard assets.

When ISM rises, the business cycle accelerates and risk appetite returns.

All 6 are firing right now.

And Pal's point is that people are spending so much time debating the 4-year cycle, quantum computing fears, geopolitical risk, and whatever the latest doom narrative is, that they're missing the actual signal.

The one that has mattered more than anything else for over a decade.

Liquidity is rising.

When liquidity rises, risk assets rise. It's that simple. It's been that simple for 13 years.

And it's still that simple today.

Pal has laid out the thesis in 50-point tweet storms. He's written extensive reports. He's done hour-long interviews breaking down every single variable.

But sometimes the most powerful move is to strip it back to 6 lines and tell people to stop overcomplicating it.

The macro is screaming…

The only question is whether you're positioned to hear it. 📡

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 27.84% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 28.11% two weeks ago. Shrinking again.

The interesting story this week is the split between the youngest and oldest bands.

Fresh activity is picking up. The <1 day and 1 week to 1 month cohorts both grew, suggesting new buyers are stepping in. That's a subtle but meaningful shift after weeks of fading daily volume.

But the middle is hollowing out. The 1-3 month band dropped 1.22% - the sharpest contraction across any cohort. But those coins didn't get sold. They aged forward into the 3-6 month group, which swelled by nearly a full percent.

And that 3-6 month band is the waiting room. One more push and those coins cross into long-term holder territory - where they historically stay.

So the picture is this: new buyers entering at the front, existing supply graduating out the back, and the total short-term pool continuing to contract.

The reactive supply keeps thinning. The patient base keeps growing. 💎

Tron’s Justin Sun slams Trump-backed WLFI for treating users as ‘personal ATM’ after $75 Million DeFi loan. Once WLFI's largest outside backer, Sun is going public days after the Trump-family venture borrowed $75 million against its own token on a DeFi protocol advised by one of its own insiders.

Hong Kong awards first stablecoin licenses to HSBC, Standard Chartered-led group. The approvals by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's central bank, mark the first batch under the Stablecoins Ordinance, which took effect in August 2025.

Michael Saylor Hints Strategy is Buying More Bitcoin. The co-founder of Strategy, the biggest Bitcoin treasury company in the world, signaled that the company is about to buy more of the digital currency on Monday.

Bitwise files second amendment to Hyperliquid ETF, adds Wintermute and Flowdesk as trading counterparties. The filing comes a day after Bitwise Europe listed a physically-backed Hyperliquid staking ETP on Deutsche Börse Xetra.

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After FTX collapsed and revealed it had been spending customer funds, major exchanges like Binance and Kraken began publishing proof of reserves using on-chain verification and third-party audits to rebuild trust.

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