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🥜 Prepare yourself
PLUS: ETF Outflows
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #425 weighin’ it up… ⚖️ 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more adventurous than a quest to throw a ring into the fires of Mount Doom... 💍🌋
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
😨 What’s going on?
🦃 Best Thanksgiving ever
⚖️ Bitcoin exchange balances
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
WHAT’S GOING ON? 😨
BREAKING: BlackRock’s IBIT logs first daily net outflows since May
It’s been tough out here lately…
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering just over $59,000. Having reached a low of $58,751 earlier in the day.
And to make matters worse, the Bitcoin ETFs have recorded their third outflow day in a row…
Yesterday saw $71.8 in net outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs:
Grayscale GBTC: -$22.7 million
Fidelity FBTC: -$31.1 million
BlackRock IBIT: -$13.5 million
Bitwise BITB: -$8.1 million
Valkyrie BRRR: -$1.7 million
Did you notice it?
That’s right.
Even BlackRock recorded a net outflow yesterday…
BlackRock’s IBIT saw it’s first negative day since May 1, with $13.5 million in net outflows.
Here’s the thing though.
This is IBIT’s second ever negative day across 160 days of trading.
That is an absolutely insane record, and as ETF analysts have constantly hammered on about:
Outflows and neutral days are the norm for ETFs.
But we get it.
With the price of Bitcoin barely moving and the ETFs seeing net outflows…
It doesn’t really feel like a “bull market” right now does it?
So we’ll leave you with a little bit of hopium for the end of the week.
If we take a look at past cycles, everything seems to happen after the US election. (White is this cycle, green is 2020-21 & blue is 2016-17)
Which is only 66 days away…
(We’ll explain why this is the case in the next section)
And Bitcoin is currently outperforming prior cycles, which we broke down last week.
So it looks like we’ll just have to hold out a little longer. 😎
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BEST THANKSGIVING EVER 🦃
This will be the greatest Thanksgiving Bitcoiners have ever had.
Why?
The price of Bitcoin.
That’s the message out from Mark Yusko.
For those of you who don’t know Yusko, he’s the:
Founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital ($1 billion AUM)
30+ years of financial market experience
Amongst the first institutional investors to buy Bitcoin
In an interview this week, Mark broke down exactly where he thinks we are in the cycle:
“We're in the first third of Crypto Fall. Crypto Fall started in May and the last half of Crypto Fall is gonna be unbelievable. I've said this before: this is going to be the greatest Thanksgiving Bitcoiners have ever experienced, because we're finally invited back.”
To be fair to Mark, this isn’t a new prediction either. He called this at the beginning of the year, when we interviewed him ourselves.
But why is Mark so confident in a higher Bitcoin by Thanksgiving?
Uncertainty.
Right now the biggest question hanging over crypto is:
Who will be elected as President in November?
Right now, it’s a coin flip
This uncertainty is keeping prices muted.
However, this will be completely resolved on November 4th.
Crypto will then have the opportunity to do it’s thang and be higher by Thanksgiving, on November 28th.
How high does Mark think it will go?
“November to March / April, when we start to peak, I stand by my call that we'll easily see six figures.”
November also lines up with when Bitcoin starts to scream higher, in previous cycles:
Bitcoin ROI from Halving
The stars do seem to align on a big Thanksgiving… 🔮
BITCOIN EXCHANGE BALANCES ⚖️
Time for a check in on the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Here’s how to interpret this metric:
Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂
Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻
Currently there is 3,020,767 Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Which is only ~15.30% of the entire circulating supply.
And over the last 30 days, exchange balances have decreased by ~10,288 BTC.
As Bitcoin continues to leave exchanges, it signals that investors have a preference for long-term holding.
Remember the old saying?
Not your keys, not your coins
So as it stands, ~84.70% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is not on an exchange.
That’s HUGE when you think about it.
Put simply, there just isn’t that much Bitcoin available for sale right now.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
TON activity halted twice in a single day, surpassing ten-hour downtime. Following a nearly six-hour downtime, TON stopped producing blocks over four hours ago due to overload of network activity.
Millions lost as Mbappé’s hacked account promotes $460M crypto scam. A trader lost $1 million on a fake Mbappe token, after the Real Madrid star's X account was hacked.
U.S. House Committee Plans for Heap of Crypto Hearings in September. The House Financial Services Committee is expected to look at DeFi, U.S. enforcement and "pig butchering" in a series of hearings.
Crypto.com taps Standard Chartered to expand global fiat services. The tie-up will enable “seamless” fiat deposits and withdrawals for U.S. dollars, euros and dirhams in 90 countries.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bullseye Trades (link) - Daily stock market tips
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is the maximum amount of Ethereum that can ever exist? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) Infinite 🥳
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum does not have a capped supply.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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