GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #890 bargin‘ on in…🚢🥜

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

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BREAKING: Bitcoin stalls near $76,500 as muted trading points to macro wait-and-see

Bitcoin is still stuck in the danger zone…

For the past week we’ve been chopping around $77k.

And at the time of writing we’re sitting at around $76.5k. That's above last week's worst levels, but still below the $78K-$80K area we've been watching as the confidence line.

The twist is that this doesn't look like everyone is abandoning crypto.

It looks more like rotation.

Singapore-based market maker, Enflux, said "the bid is there," but no one is adding size.

That feels exactly like the market we’re in right now.

Buyers haven't vanished. They're just not leaning in hard enough to push Bitcoin back through the level that matters.

ETF flows explain part of it.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been bleeding since May 7, the six-day outflow streak hit about $1.55B. (More on this later)

Steady selling creates supply, and BTC has not found enough demand to absorb it cleanly yet.

But the more interesting part is where some money is going.

CoinDesk reported that while BTC and ETH funds saw heavy outflows last week, HYPE, XRP, and SOL products still pulled in money.

That matters because Bitcoin led the April recovery when ETF demand came roaring back and price climbed above $80,000.

Now BTC is back in the mid-$70,000s, ETF sellers are still active, and the market is rewarding smaller pockets of momentum instead of buying the whole sector.

Global defense budgets are expanding, but the allocation has changed. A growing share of spending is going toward AI-enabled systems, satellite networks, and advanced aerospace, not the platforms that dominated the last generation of procurement. We identified five companies at the center of this reallocation in a single research brief. Inside, you'll find the investment case for each, the contracts driving revenue, and the risks worth understanding before you commit capital. If you want exposure to defense sector growth beyond the traditional mega-caps, this report is a practical starting point. Free, concise, and built for investors who want to move ahead of the crowd.

Read the report

Larry Lepard just dropped a non-consensus call that should have every Bitcoin holder paying attention.

Lepard is a 42-year veteran investment manager, Harvard MBA, Managing Partner at Equity Management Associates, and author of "The Big Print."

His entire thesis boils down to four words: fix the money, fix the world.

And his latest take? Kevin Warsh is about to cut rates.

For context, Kevin Warsh is the newly nominated Fed Chair, widely viewed as the most market-friendly pick in years.

Markets have been split on whether he'd actually move on rates given sticky inflation and the ongoing war-driven supply pressures.

Lepard says he will. And he'll use the AI productivity narrative and "transitory" war inflation as cover to do it.

The evidence is stacking up. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Bloomberg, "We're really likely to see rate cuts this year because of Kevin Warsh."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC, "Nothing is more transient than a supply shock," predicting easing price pressures after "one or two more hot inflation numbers."

Lepard's read on the play is sharp.

Here's why this matters for crypto:

Rate cuts mean cheaper money. Cheaper money means more liquidity. More liquidity means risk assets rip. And no asset on earth correlates with global liquidity like Bitcoin.

Raoul Pal has shown that Bitcoin has a 90% correlation to global liquidity since 2012.

If Warsh cuts, the liquidity floodgates open. M2 expands. Risk-on returns. And the assets with fixed supply, no counterparty risk, and the deepest liquidity become the biggest beneficiaries.

This is the exact macro setup Bitcoin has been waiting for. War winding down. Oil falling. Inflation cooling. And a market-friendly Fed Chair ready to inject liquidity into a system that's already starving for it.

The non-consensus call today becomes the consensus trade tomorrow. 💰

Today we're looking at US Spot ETF Net Flows - a metric that tracks the daily net movement of funds in and out of the major Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

It's a straightforward gauge of institutional appetite.

Green bars mean more money flowing in than out. Red bars mean the opposite. The 7-day moving average smooths out the noise and shows you the underlying trend.

So where are we now?

Since May 7th, US Spot ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every single trading day. That's over two weeks of persistent, consistent selling from the institutional side.

Late April saw a surge of strong inflows - some of the largest green bars since January - as Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000. That momentum carried into early May.

Then it flipped. Hard.

The 7-day moving average has swung from solidly positive to deeply negative, and the red bars in mid-to-late May are some of the heaviest we've seen since the January sell-off.

Price has responded accordingly, sliding from above $80,000 back toward the mid-$70,000s as ETF selling adds consistent supply-side pressure to the market.

The question now is whether this mirrors the January-February pattern - where heavy outflows eventually exhausted themselves and reversed into a multi-week inflow streak - or whether the selling has further to run.

For now, the institutional bid that supported the April rally has clearly stepped back. And until those red bars start shrinking, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. 📊

Tom Lee Outlines Liquidity Catalyst for Ethereum Firm BitMine Following Russell Index Update. BitMine is expected to join the Russell 1000 on June 26, which Tom Lee says could unlock large passive-index demand for the ETH treasury company.

Bitcoin options are coming to Nasdaq. Here’s what it means for you. Nasdaq PHLX has conditional SEC approval for cash-settled bitcoin index options, but the product still needs CFTC approval before trading.

New York lawsuit tests lost property claim over dormant Bitcoin. A lawsuit is trying to claim ownership over 39,069 dormant Bitcoin wallets, raising a strange legal question that still runs into the basic problem of missing private keys.

‘We don’t know who deployed this’: Squid distances itself from $3.2 million third-party module exploit. A third-party Gnosis Safe module using the Squid name drained about $3.2M from 86 Safes, while Squid said its core protocol was not involved.

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Trivia Answer: Sending tiny amounts of crypto to wallets to help trace or identify the owner 🥳

A dusting attack sends tiny amounts to wallets so analysts can try to connect addresses and weaken user privacy.

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