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BREAKING: Senate Republicans release 'final' Clarity Act draft as Trump accepts most ethics provisions

Friday, the crowd leaned bullish.

56% of you voted for higher prices, another 38% for chop and range, and almost nobody called for a fall.

Bitcoin poked toward $80,000 on Friday's inflation print, then gave it back to sit near $77,000.

The chop-and-range voters had it right.

The bigger news landed overnight.

For two months the whole Clarity Act, the bill that would give US crypto its first real rulebook, has been stuck on one clause, the ethics rules barring officials, Trump included, from cashing in on crypto.

Late Sunday, Senate Republicans released what they're calling the final draft, and Trump agreed to most of those restrictions on himself.

Cynthia Lummis, who wrote the text with two colleagues, says it folds in 126 changes Democrats had asked for.

One of them moves enforcement of the conflict rules to state attorneys general, away from a Justice Department that reports to Trump himself, the exact objection Democrats wouldn't drop.

The limits cover the President, the Vice President, members of Congress and their spouses.

It removes the obstacle that killed every earlier attempt, but it doesn't clear the vote.

The bill needs 60 senators on Tuesday, Republicans hold 53, so at least seven Democrats have to cross.

None have said yet that they will, and the rules still leave officials' children out.

The man whose crypto fortune was the problem has agreed to limit it.

That's the concession every earlier draft failed to win.

The Democrats who called this bill dead on arrival now have to decide whether it's enough. 🚀

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Arthur Hayes is looking straight past Wednesday's Fed decision to what he thinks comes after it.

Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, and one of crypto's most-read macro essayists.

Here's what he posted:

The whole market is fixated on one number this week, whether the Fed hikes 25 basis points on Wednesday.

Hayes is pointing at a slower and much bigger problem sitting underneath it.

The AI boom runs on borrowed money.

Data centres, chips and power are being funded on the bet that the hyperscalers (the big cloud and AI giants) keep buying compute forever.

If that demand ever stalls, the loans behind it go bad, and Hayes sees only two ways out.

Either Washington steps in and buys all that compute itself.

Or the Fed prints to rescue the insurers and lenders left holding the bad AI debt.

His verdict on both paths: "both require printed money."

And that's the same trade for us either way.

More fresh dollars, chasing the same fixed 21 million Bitcoin.

It's the reason the debasement crowd keeps stacking straight through a hawkish Fed.

A rate hike can chill the market for a week.

The structural bill still gets settled in newly printed currency.

So while everyone watches Wednesday, Hayes is watching the printer. 🖨️

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins, with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’re focusing on long-term holders (LTHs), defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 81.03% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 💎

Up from 80.92% two weeks ago, a 0.11% gain that claws back part of last fortnight’s slip.

The front still leaked, with the 6-12 month band giving up 0.32%.

But this time the coins aged forward instead of dropping out, lifting the 1-2 year band 0.45% as a wave crossed its first birthday.

That single move outweighed the entire loss up front, so the base grew even as its youngest edge thinned.

Deeper in, the multi-year cohorts barely twitched, the 7-10 year and 10-year-plus bands adding a rounding error between them.

That works out to roughly 22,000 Bitcoin aging back over the six-month line this fortnight, the mirror image of the 93,000 that slipped under it last time.

Two weeks ago the front was selling into $80,000, now it’s sitting still and getting older. 💎

Revolut says customer data exposed through fake government email. Passports, selfies and Bitcoin transaction histories of some customers were handed to a fraudster using a government agency's own domain.

Circle's $400M Tazapay deal buys emerging market links that take 'years to build'. The $400 million acquisition targets emerging markets, where one expert says stablecoins' next battleground lies against rival Tether.

Symbiosis says it recovered 15 BTC after Bitcoin bridge exploit, offers attacker 20% bounty. Roughly 46.1 billion syBTC were minted in the exploit, but the attacker realized only about 336,000 dollars in proceeds.

AI Agents Spending Money Online? New Research Says Not Really. TRM examined roughly 52.7 million dollars across 198.9 million settlements on the x402 protocol and found little of it came from AI agents.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Decentralized Finance 🥳

DeFi is short for Decentralized Finance, financial services like lending, borrowing and trading that run on smart contracts instead of banks or brokers.

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