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What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Strategy sold another $105 million of bitcoin last week, repurchased $81.2 million of STRC

Strategy's bitcoin pile got smaller again last week.

The largest corporate holder on earth sold 1,638 coins, about $105 million worth, taking its stack down to 842,138 bitcoin.

It hasn't bought a coin since June, and it's been trimming the stack instead of adding to it.

In the same week, it raised $290 million selling fresh stock, added $250 million to a cash reserve that now holds $4 billion, and spent $81 million buying back its own preferred shares.

So it sold bitcoin and printed equity in the same breath, then put the money into dollars and buybacks rather than more coins.

That only makes sense once the premium is gone.

Strategy's whole model ran on its shares trading well above the value of the coins behind them (its mNAV), which let it sell stock high and add bitcoin per share.

With that gap closed to roughly break-even, issuing stock to buy coins adds nothing, so the cash covers the preferred dividends instead, and selling a slice of bitcoin is the cheapest way to fund them.

Then there's Trump Media…

Since it started, the company has moved 7,281 bitcoin off its own wallets, and the roughly 4,261 left now rounds to the exact 4,260 it pledged as collateral on notes due in 2028.

Strip out the pledged coins and its free bitcoin position is effectively gone.

The company won't say whether the transfers are sales or custody moves, and points to its next quarterly filing for the answer.

On-chain trackers at Lookonchain read them as sales, and put the loss already locked in near $318 million.

To be fair, Strategy has hinted it might buy again if bitcoin holds its long-run average near $63,000.

But the two most visible corporate buyers of the last cycle both sent coins the other way in the same week.

For two years the loose supply flowed onto balance sheets like these and stayed put.

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Fred Krueger just tied AI's growth curve directly to Bitcoin's endgame. And the logic is hard to argue with.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

Here's what he tweeted:

His starting data point is the pace of it. Anthropic's run rate has reportedly gone from $9 billion to $74 billion in eight months. That's not a growth curve, that's a vertical line.

From there, his conclusion:

Sit with what superintelligence at scale actually means. Software becomes free. Analysis becomes free. Design, code, content, research - anything that can be generated collapses toward zero cost.

And when almost everything becomes infinitely abundant, the only things that hold value are the ones that cannot be produced at any price.

That's a very short list. Prime land. Great art. And one monetary asset with a supply cap that no intelligence, human or otherwise, can amend.

It's the same conclusion Raoul Pal reaches from the other direction. An economy of billions of agents transacting constantly needs rails that are programmable, instant and always on. Not 3-day settlement and banks that close on weekends.

Infinite intelligence. Twenty-one million coins.

Scarcity is the last thing left to own. 💠

Back to the ETF flow data, our weekly read on institutional appetite.

Green means money flowing in, red means it's heading out.

The streak snapped.

Bitcoin ETFs bled $62 million on the week, the first red week after three green ones.

Thursday pulled in $233 million, then Friday handed back $265 million, the worst day in weeks, and that one session decided it.

IBIT wasn't the culprit this time.

BlackRock's fund took in $87 million across the week, while Grayscale, Fidelity and ARK gave back $168 million between them, most of it on Friday.

Ethereum went its own way again, netting $10 million and green on four of five days.

Small, but positive for a third week running while Bitcoin cracked.

Lifetime the funds hold $51.77 billion in Bitcoin and $11.18 billion in Ethereum, so a $62 million red week is a scratch, not a wound.

Three green weeks, then a red one, and it opened the moment IBIT stopped covering for the funds heading out. 📊

Former FBI Agent Charged With Stealing Nearly $1 Million in Crypto and Using ChatGPT for Investment Advice. Prosecutors say the former counterintelligence supervisor stole funds from investigation-linked wallets before asking ChatGPT how to invest the money and relocate.

U.S.-Japan intervention revives yen carry trade fears for bitcoin. Coordinated yen support revived carry-trade concerns, although dollar strength may be the greater immediate BTC risk.

Bessent’s top crypto adviser Tyler Williams exits US Treasury: Report. A key architect of the administration’s digital-asset agenda is departing while landmark crypto legislation remains stalled.

DEXs capture record 24% of spot crypto trading as CEX volumes sink. Decentralized exchanges reached a record share of spot trading as centralized-exchange activity contracted.

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