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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #618 dialin’ in… ☎️🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more charming than a blue hedgehog outrunning evil with nothing but attitude and sneakers... 🌀👟
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🚀 Major breakout?
🇮🇪 Ireland wants Bitcoin
💪 Conviction
💰 And more…
Prices as at 4:15am ET
MAJOR BREAKOUT? 🚀
BREAKING: Bitcoin trades near $104,000; analyst says new all-time high 'plausible'
We’re so close…
Bitcoin is back within striking distance of its all-time high - trading just 4.8% below January’s $109,114 peak.
But this rally isn’t driven by hype.
It’s being powered by a trifecta of macro catalysts, institutional momentum, and real-world adoption.
1. U.S.–China Trade Deal Breakthrough
After weeks of escalating tariff battles, both countries announced “substantial progress” in Geneva, with a joint statement expected shortly.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the talks “productive,” and markets agreed — the Dow popped 500 points and Bitcoin surged.
Some analysts say the rally confirms BTC’s role as a macro hedge.
If Bitcoin strength fades post-deal, it may mean tariffs were the fuel.
But if BTC keeps running, it suggests something bigger: investors are treating it as a long-term safe haven.
2. CPI Data and Fed Pivot Bets
Tuesday’s CPI print is the next big catalyst.
Markets expect inflation to tick down to 2.3%.
A cool print would turbocharge rate cut bets — already pricing in a 61.7% chance for July and 96.4% by October.
Even if CPI runs hot, traders may dismiss it as backward-looking — tied to tariffs that are now off the table.
Powell himself gave the bulls ammo last week, saying “the underlying inflation picture is good.”
3. Institutional Flows Still Climbing
The Bitcoin ETFs have been on a roll…
BlackRock’s IBIT has now seen 20 straight days of inflows totalling over $5 billion.
Institutional demand is well and truly back.
Rate cut momentum. Trade war cooling. ETF demand rising.
Bitcoin isn’t just back - it’s seriously positioned for a major breakout.
All eyes now on Tuesday’s CPI.
One cool print might be all it takes. 👀
Smarter Investing Starts with Smarter News
Cut through the hype and get the market insights that matter. The Daily Upside delivers clear, actionable financial analysis trusted by over 1 million investors—free, every morning. Whether you’re buying your first ETF or managing a diversified portfolio, this is the edge your inbox has been missing.
IRELAND WANTS BITCOIN 🇮🇪
Today’s expert?
An unlikely one.
MMA legend Conor McGregor just threw his gloves into the Bitcoin ring — and maybe soon, into Irish politics.
Who Is Conor McGregor?
If you somehow don’t know:
Former UFC champion in 2 weight classes
One of the most well-known athletes on the planet
Now considering a run for Irish President 🇮🇪
And now?
He’s talking about Bitcoin.
Here’s what he tweeted:
He also announced a Twitter Space to share his vision for what needs to change.
Why It Matters
Conor’s not an economist.
Not a hedge fund guy.
Not even a tech bro.
And that’s exactly the point.
When voices this far outside finance start taking Bitcoin seriously…
Citing the U.S. strategic reserve
Proposing the same idea for Ireland
Framing Bitcoin as a tool for sovereignty and strength
…you know we’re entering a new phase.
Bitcoin’s not just a niche trade anymore.
It’s becoming a national conversation.
And when McGregor of all people is talking about Strategic Bitcoin Reserves…
You know we’re on the brink of a generational run. 🐎
CONVICTION 💪
Time for a check-in on the Long/Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): Coins held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): Coins held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: All coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: All coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is powerful because it shows exactly what price range long and short term holders bought their Bitcoin at. 🔍
Right now, the key threshold date is December 7th, 2024 - when Bitcoin was trading around $99,800.
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today, LTHs control 14,146,853 BTC - a massive 71.22% of the circulating supply.
Meanwhile, STHs hold just 2,694,876 BTC - only 13.57% of supply.
And the gap between them?
It’s getting wider by the week.
Over the past 90 days, 334,707 BTC has matured from short-term to long-term status - a clear signal that investors are sitting tight and playing the long game.
And historically, when more Bitcoin moves into stronger hands, the result is often the same:
Supply dries up. Selling pressure fades. And price action explodes. 🚀
Simply put, the strongest hands in the market are tightening their grip.
And they’re doing it with conviction.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Concerns over Trump's conflict of interest are slowing the progress of broader crypto policy. Democrats are delaying crypto and stablecoin legislation to stop Trump from profiting off crypto ventures.
White House claims 'substantial progress' on China trade deal. Although the White House claimed progress was made, no official details on a deal were announced, casting doubts on the purported agreement.
Coinbase Is Buying Bitcoin, Just Don’t Call It a Treasury Strategy. Coinbase has bitcoin on the balance sheet, but management wants to be clear it's not taking the Michael Saylor/MSTR approach.
Vice President JD Vance to Headline Bitcoin Conference, Following Trump's Lead. Vice President JD Vance will speak at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas later this month, one year after President Trump headlined in Nashville.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which country became the first to officially adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: El Salvador 🥳
El Salvador made global headlines by embracing Bitcoin — letting citizens pay taxes, buy goods, and even get their Starbucks with BTC. 🇸🇻⚡
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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