🄜 Is Bitcoin overvalued?

PLUS: Billions Are Coming

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GM to all 45,221 of you. Crypto Nutshell #237 ready for the moon. šŸ‘Øā€šŸš€ šŸ„œ

We’re the crypto newsletter that won't twist your mind like a detective trying to capture a serial killer who uses the seven deadly sins... šŸ•µļøā€ā™‚ļøšŸ“¦

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ‚ ETF inflows are accelerating

  • 🌊 $150 billion is coming

  • šŸ‚ Is Bitcoin overvalued?

  • šŸ’° And more…

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MARKET WATCH āš–ļø

Prices as at 5:25am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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ETF INFLOWS ARE ACCELERATING šŸ‚

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETF inflows snowball: last 4 days bigger than first 4 weeks

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin ETFs have been on a roll recently.

According to data from Apollo, the last 4 days have outperformed the first 20.

  • First 20 days of trading: ~42k BTC net inflows

  • Last 4 days of trading: ~43k BTC net inflows

Isn’t that nuts?!

Checkout the chart below for a visual representation of net flows.

net flows

In other ETF news, Bitwise is the fourth institution to reach over $1 billion in assets under management. 🄳 (an insane milestone for any ETF to hit)

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF store had this to say:

ā€œBitwise is most impressive IMO. Only crypto fund-native firm in group. That should tell you something about true investor demand. This isn’t a TradFi marketing exercise.ā€

Nate Geraci
Bitwise

Things are only going to get more crazy with these ETFs…

(To be continued in the next section..)

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$150 BILLION IS COMING 🌊

$150 billion is about to be unleashed upon the Bitcoin ETFs.

That’s the latest prediction out from Ric Edelman.

ric1

For those of you who don’t know Ric Edelman, here’s a quick rundown on some of his credentials:

  • Founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals

  • Ranked 3 times as the United States #1 Independent Financial Advisor by Barron's

  • Added to the Financial Advisors Hall of Fame in 2019 (apparently that’s a thing?)

Safe to say, when it comes to the tradition finance world, Ric knows what he’s talking about.

Speaking recently at the Exchange ETF Conference, Ric had this to say regarding the Bitcoin ETFs:

ā€œThis is just the beginning… By the time we get to the end of 2025… we’re going to see total inflows of more than $150 billion, we’re only at $5 billion right nowā€

Ric Edelman,

Why does Edelman expect $150 billion in inflows? šŸ¤”

Well according to him it’s ā€œsimple arithmeticā€.

Individual investment advisors collectively manage around $8 trillion in assets.

Three quarters of advisors say they are going to allocate to these ETFs.

Surveys show that their average allocation will be ~2.5% of total assets.

Let’s do the math:

$8 trillion x 77% x 2.5% = $150 billion worth of inflows

And that’s just independent advisors…

(This calculation excludes wirehouses and institutional investors which makes this number even more insane)

Ric also explained how this will impact Bitcoin’s price:

ā€œThe supply [of Bitcoin] is fixed. All of those 10’s of billions of dollars of inflows. It’s a supply demand issue. Classic. As the increased demand occurs and the limited supply environment, it can only translate to a rapid and exponentially higher price.ā€

Ric Edelman

The ETFs have literally changed the game. šŸ˜Ž

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IS BITCOIN OVERVALUED? šŸ¤”

With Bitcoin blasting through $52,000 you may be wondering - is Bitcoin overvalued?

Or is it still undervalued?

Let’s compare the market value to the realized value and find out.

  • Market Value (Market cap): current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the circulating supply

  • Realized Value: the price at which each coin last moved multiplied by the circulating supply

A market top (red zone) is categorised by market value being significantly higher than the realized value.

A market bottom (green zone) is categorised by market value being significantly lower than the realized value. (also the best time to scoop up cheap Bitcoin)

onchain

With Bitcoin’s recent price performance, MVRV has exploded.

Going from 1.42 to 2.00 within the last week. 😱

But what does this mean?

Well, as we’ve only just bounced off the green zone, Bitcoin is far from overvalued.

In fact it’s STILL undervalued.

Historically this metric has picked major Bitcoin price highs to within 2 weeks. (red zone)

So it’s definitely one we’ll be checking in on every now and then.

We’ve still got a long way to go this upcoming bull run.

We hope your bags are packed. 

This rollercoaster has only just begun. šŸŽ¢  šŸ˜Ž

CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Ark’s Cathie Wood says SEC probably will only approve BTC and ETH ETFs. Cathie Wood, CIO and CEO of Ark Invest, told the Wall Street Journal on Feb. 13 that she expects regulators to approve ETFs for very few cryptocurrencies.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF passes 100K BTC under management. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF surpassed 100,000 BTC in holdings, while total spot BTC inflows posted another record above $630 million.

Citi the latest TradFi player to test out asset tokenization. Citi is the latest financial firm to test out tokenization efforts that offer big advantages over traditional models.

WHAT WE’RE READING šŸ“š

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? āœļø

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after ā€œMeme Cornerā€)

Who wrote Ethereum's Yellow Paper, which serves as the formal definition of the Ethereum protocol.

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MEME CORNER šŸ˜‚

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: C) Gavin Wood 🄳

The Yellow Paper is a formal definition of the Ethereum protocol, originally by Gavin Wood.

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