GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #83 feelin’ the red… 🔴🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last weeks Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

<sub>If you’re new here, this is a weekly personal research report intended as a tool for you to complement your own analysis. These insights are not recommendations but rather what is being considered for investment and the rational behind the choices.

Please note that this information is exclusive to Crypto Nutshell Pro members, so refrain from sharing it. You are free to use it as you wish—whether as a starting point for your own research, as a tool to enhance your research skills, or simply to track how things unfold.</sub>

_{Ultimately, the choice of how to use this information is up to you. If you choose to invest based off this information, you accept full responsibility for that decision.}

<sub>This report presents a simplified & filtered overview of an extensive research process, which is based off high-quality data from paid reports, newsletters, and tools. Accessing this data is costly, costing tens of thousands per year, as many sources employ dedicated teams for data collection.

Crypto Nutshell Pro serves as a filter, analysing and synthesising this data to provide unique insights, drawing from deeper crypto expertise compared to many source teams. By starting with top-tier research, we aim to refine it into valuable insights for you to further explore and utilise as a resource.</sub>

A week ago, Bitcoin was sitting at $59,000 and it genuinely felt like the floor was about to give out.

This week, the largest IPO in history debuted green, oil is cracking, and the evidence for a cycle low is stacking up faster than almost anyone expected.

Everyone was bracing for the next leg down.

Instead, we might have just watched the bottom go in.

Let's get into it. 👇

1. The Low That Might Actually Be The Low

On June 5th, Bitcoin touched $59,000.

That marked a 53% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high back in October. As deep, as ugly, and as emotionally brutal as any low this cycle has handed us.

A week later, we're back above $63,000.

And the reason that matters isn't necessarily the bounce itself. It's what caused it.

Two catalysts landed in the same 48-hour window. The exact dual setup we've been waiting on for months.

The first was the SpaceX IPO finally pricing and trading.

We'll get into why that's such a big deal in a second, but here's the part that matters for the floor: a chunk of the selling that crushed crypto over the past month wasn't people giving up on Bitcoin.

It was people raising cash to get into the biggest stock listing in history. Roughly $5.7 billion has bled out of Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May.

Some of that was rotation into AI. A meaningful slice of it was investors selling crypto to free up dry powder for SpaceX.

Once the IPO prices and trades, that specific pressure ends. The forced seller goes away.

The second catalyst was oil.

For months we've described energy as the macro variable that refuses to die. Higher oil feeds inflation, inflation pushes Treasury yields up, and rising risk-free yields punish everything speculative, crypto included.

This week oil cracked hard on signs of an Iran deal, with WTI sliding to around $84-85, among its lowest levels since the war began.

Put simply: the two things that have been holding this market underwater both started to lift in the same week.

That's why the bottom calls are suddenly everywhere. The phrase making the rounds is blunt: winter is over.

We think there's a real case for that.

But we're not going to pretend the other side doesn't exist.

So let's lay out both sides…

2. The SpaceX Paradox

First, the size of this thing.

SpaceX raised $75 billion at $135 a share, priced at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, and opened on Friday around $150 before pushing roughly 20% above its IPO price.

It is, by a wide margin, the largest IPO in history. The previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, raised $25.6 billion.

Here's the paradox, and it's the most important idea in this whole newsletter.

SpaceX hurt crypto on the way in.

The capital that funded it came partly out of our market. You could see it directly on-chain, with Binance Wallet alone pulling in $557 million from nearly 28,000 wallets for IPO exposure, and SpaceX perps on Hyperliquid swelling to over $240 million in open interest.

Crypto rails were used to buy the thing that was draining crypto.