GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #965 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETF Demand Grows While Ether and XRP Cool

Friday we asked where you stood on Bitcoin.

59% of you were bullish, 31% saw chop, and 11% braced for a drop.

Bitcoin then slipped from about $81,000 to just under $80,000 over the weekend, so the range crowd read it better than the bulls.

Underneath the fade, the ETF money this rally has been missing finally strung together three straight weeks.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.8 billion over that stretch, their strongest of 2026, with almost $987 million in the latest week alone.

For weeks the climb off the summer lows ran on a short squeeze and then a thin trickle of fund buying that kept threatening to dry up.

Three weeks of real inflows is a different animal.

A squeeze is forced covering that burns out in days.

ETF money is someone choosing to buy and hold, week after week, and that's what holds a price up instead of spiking it and leaving.

The fuel that ran out a week ago came back, and this time it isn't borrowed.

The bid is also getting pickier.

Friday's haul cooled to $175 million as Bitcoin dipped below $79,000, and Ether and XRP funds went quiet after their own hot streak.

The cash is concentrating in Bitcoin alone, a flight to the one asset with a working ETF machine behind it rather than a broad crypto bid.

This weekend's dip had steady buying underneath it, where the last pullback had money heading out.

A shallow fade with three weeks of inflows behind it looks more like a floor forming than a top.

The crowd leaned bullish and missed the week by a hair, but the thing that decides the next leg finally turned up. 🚀

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Cathie Wood read Friday's jobs report and came to the opposite conclusion to everyone who sold it.

She's the founder and CEO of ARK Invest and one of the most closely followed growth investors in the world.

Here's what she posted:

The report was a blowout: the US added 162,000 jobs in August, roughly triple what economists expected, and unemployment held at 4.1%.

The market's reflex was textbook: hot jobs mean a hotter Fed, so futures traders lifted the odds of a September hike to 58% from 49.4% a day earlier, and Bitcoin dropped from a four-month high just over $82,000 to about $79,300 within minutes.

Wood's argument is that the reflex is reading an economy that's on its way out.

Her list is long: capital spending breaking through a ceiling that held for 20 years, companies that adopt AI hiring faster, equities at records while rates rise, Bitcoin pulling away from gold.

Add it up and she sees stronger real growth paired with technology-driven deflation, a boom that never needs the Fed to slam the brakes.

To be fair, this is a forecast, and the test is already on the calendar…

Her case rests on inflation measures that run cooler than the headline, and the August CPI lands before the Fed meets on September 15-16, so the idea gets checked inside a fortnight.

Why it matters for crypto: Bitcoin has spent 2026 trading as a rates asset, selling off on every hot number because a hot number means a hawkish Fed.

If Wood is right, that reflex is priced to an economy that's being replaced, and Friday's dip was a false alarm.

If she's wrong, Friday is the template for the rest of the year.

Same jobs number, two economies, and the August inflation print decides which one the Fed is looking at. 🔭

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins, with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs), defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here’s how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 19.20% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders. 💎

Up from 18.80% two weeks ago, a 0.40% rise and the third print of growth in a row.

The front kept emptying, with the 1-day-to-1-week and 1-week-to-1-month bands giving up 0.85% between them, so no new wave of coins came in behind the run past $80,000.

Instead the 1-3 month band swelled 1.05% to 6.58%, the coins bought into the summer breakout getting older without getting sold.

That one band now holds more than a third of the entire short-term float.

Even the 3-6 month cohort grew, up 0.16%, so more coins aged into it than left across the six-month line.

Roughly 80,000 more Bitcoin sit in short-term hands than a fortnight ago, and almost none of it is fresh.

The float is bigger, older, and still not selling. 💎

Better and Coinbase's bitcoin-backed mortgages can reuse borrowers' collateral. Better Mortgage can re-lend the pledged Bitcoin, and borrowers cannot recover their crypto until the main mortgage is fully repaid or refinanced.

Ancient Bitcoin Wallet That Turned $120 Into $3 Million Wakes Up. At least four more decade-old wallets moved a combined $15.7 million between August 29 and September 4, one batch tagged to Coinbase in a likely sign of selling.

LeBron James teases Polymarket partnership in new social media video. The tease follows James's free agency decision, which drove $273 million in trading volume across prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.

Tether-backed Orionx to shut down after audit flags $7M custody gap. The exchange is closing permanently after an audit found more than $7 million in customer assets had moved to wallets outside its custody.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.