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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #929 pullin‘ up… 🚗🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more unflappable than an extraction team keeping its Hollywood pitch straight while airport security studies the storyboards… 🎬🛂

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🏦 Bitcoin civil war

  • 📡 It was all noise

  • 💎 Tightening

  • 💰 And more…

Prices as at 5:25am ET

BITCOIN CIVIL WAR 🏦

BREAKING: Saylor urges Bitcoin to reject BIP-110 in 110-point essay as soft fork's August showdown approaches

Bitcoin's having its biggest family fight in years.

And Michael Saylor just picked a side…

Over the weekend, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on earth dropped a 3,700-word, 110-point essay titled "110 Reasons BIP 110 Is a Bad Idea." It's been viewed more than 1 million times.

So what's the fight actually about?

One simple question: what is Bitcoin for?

BIP-110 is a proposed soft fork (a backwards-compatible rule change) that would spend a year blocking "spam" from the blockchain - think Ordinals, the NFT-like data people have been stuffing into Bitcoin blocks.

Supporters make a fair case: that junk burdens everyone running the network and forces real payments to compete with digital clutter.

Keep Bitcoin focused on one job, they say. Money.

Saylor's answer is a flat no.

And his core argument is a sharp one.

"Bitcoin cannot read intent."

The network can't tell whether a chunk of data is a spam image or a legitimate contract, proof, or app nobody's invented yet.

So the moment you start banning uses, you've turned neutral code into a censor.

And today's target is data storage

Tomorrow's could be privacy tools, or corporate apps, or anything a majority decides it doesn't like.

That precedent is what he's really worried about.

His framing: Bitcoin doesn't need guardians of purity. It needs guardians of neutrality.

There's a nastier detail too.

BIP-110 would drop the bar for activation from the usual 95% of miners down to 55%.

Saylor calls that "too aggressive," warning it invites a chain split - where Bitcoin cleaves into two rival versions, exactly what birthed Bitcoin Cash back in 2017.

But here's the reality check.

The proposal is almost certainly going nowhere. It needs 55% of blocks signalling support. It's currently sitting near 1%.

And the spam crisis it's fighting?

Ordinals activity has collapsed to near all-time lows - under 10,000 inscriptions a day, down from 400,000 at the 2023 peak.

So the war is far louder than the threat.

Which is rather the point. These fights are never really about spam.

They're about who gets to decide what Bitcoin is for. 🚀

Sound familiar?

Over 4 million people have had the same lightbulb moment.

Morning Brew is a free daily newsletter that breaks down what's happening in business, finance, and tech — clearly, quickly, and with enough personality to make it the best email in your inbox.

No yelling. No filler. Just the news, finally making sense.

IT WAS ALL NOISE 📡

Every generational asset gets its obituary written a dozen times before it matters. Raoul Pal just put two charts side by side to prove it.

Pal is a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and founder of Real Vision.

Raoul Pal

Here's what he posted:

"Even if they're right, where's it going to be in 5 or 10 years? It's just all so pointless."

Raoul Pal

Then he showed the receipts.

Bitcoin since 2012, log scale. Count the crashes. 2014. 2018. 2022. And this one. Every single one felt terminal at the time. Every single one is now a small red patch on a line heading up and to the right.

And the Nasdaq since 1985. The dot-com collapse erased roughly 80% and was the proof that tech was finished.

Today the index sits above 28,000, and that catastrophe is a dip in the middle of the chart.

"I remember the same in BTC and the same in NDX... it was all noise."

Raoul Pal

The top-callers were loud, confident, and occasionally even right about the next six months. And it didn't matter at all.

The charts don't remember who called the top. They only remember who stayed. 📡

TIGHTENING 💎

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to five weeks ago:

  • 6m - 12m: 19.17% (up from 18.66%)

  • 1y - 2y: 13.18% (up from 12.65%)

  • 2y - 3y: 6.23% (up from 6.08%)

  • 3y - 5y: 9.73% (down from 9.79%)

  • 5y - 7y: 7.15% (down from 7.18%)

  • 7y - 10y: 8.34% (down from 8.36%)

  • >10y: 17.70% (up from 17.66%)

TL;DR: 81.51% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

Up from 80.38% two weeks ago - a 1.12% jump, one of the biggest single-fortnight gains of the whole run. Long-term dormancy isn't just holding above 80%, it's accelerating toward 82%.

The younger long-term bands did the lifting. The 6-12 month cohort pushed to 19.17% as drawdown buyers keep aging past the six-month line, and the 1-2 year band climbed nearly as much - coins graduating up the ladder rather than hitting exchanges.

The oldest supply crept higher too, with the 10+ year base ticking up to 17.70%. A few mid-range bands gave back a hundredth or two, but that's rounding, not selling.

More than four in every five Bitcoin now sit still for six months or longer. Through the entire drawdown, the float has done nothing but tighten. 💎

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Upbit parent Dunamu faces South Korean regulator sanctions process. South Korea has begun formal proceedings over Upbit’s November hack, despite uncertainty over whether current law permits penalties for hacking or IT failures.

Bitcoin’s quantum problem gets a recovery tool, but not for Satoshi’s coins. Project Eleven funded a proof that could establish wallet ownership after a quantum attack using key-derivation evidence.

France orders internet providers to block Polymarket. The regulator cited illegal betting and manipulation risks ahead of Polymarket’s largest event-market settlement.

Kraken says simpler options can unlock crypto’s next derivatives market. Kraken launched USD-settled BTC and ETH options, arguing simpler design is the missing ingredient for broader adoption.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

  • Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Which country became the first to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: El Salvador 🥳

El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender in September 2021, becoming the first country to take that step.

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