
GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #1009 bringin‘ the news… 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more unbothered than a pirate captain stepping off his sinking boat straight onto the dock… 🏴☠️⛵

What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The bounce was borrowed
🔓 The unlock problem
📊 Starting line
💰 And more…


Prices as at 2:31am ET

THE BOUNCE WAS BORROWED 🏦

Bitcoin fell back under $76,000 after US stocks had their worst day since April 2025 on Thursday and took the post-election bounce with them.
The Nasdaq fell 5.5% and the S&P 500 4.3%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (the main basket of US chip stocks) dropped 12%, its worst day since the Covid crash in March 2020.
Bitcoin finished about 5% lower on the day, Ether more than 7%, and over $1 billion of leveraged crypto bets were liquidated, most of them on higher prices.
Investors are worried that Democrats running Congress will slow the data centers behind the AI boom, on top of existing doubts about whether all that AI spending pays off.
Bitcoin miners, many of which have turned their sites into AI data centers, fell 15% to 20%.
Bitcoin had shrugged off the sweep itself on Wednesday and climbed above $80,000.
FalconX's Joshua Lim says that move was "driven by a lot of short-covering into a well-telegraphed result."
(Short-covering is traders buying back to close bets against the price, which lifts it without any new buyers arriving.)
CoinGlass counted $378 million of those bearish bets wiped out in an hour on Wednesday, and on Thursday the bulls got the same treatment, with open interest (the total value of open futures bets) dropping under $26 billion from $28 billion earlier in the day.
The good news is the bond market moved the other way…
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.84%, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in December slipped below 70%, down from 95% in late September.
Wintermute's Jasper De Maere wants Bitcoin to reclaim $80,000 and hold it before turning more positive, and is watching $73,000 and $68,000 below.
The midterms are still reaching Bitcoin through chip stocks, but on Thursday it fell less than half as far as they did, with much of the borrowed money flushed out. 🚀
Bitcoin keeps falling with AI stocks. If you had to put your money in just one for the next five years, which would it be?

$1,000 in Nvidia Became $132,000. Analysts Eye 5 More
Ten years ago, Nvidia traded for about $1.65 a share on a split-adjusted basis. Most people knew it as the video game chip company and never gave it a second look. Today it trades above $217, and a $1,000 stake would be worth roughly $132,000.
Almost everyone heard the name along the way, but very few bought before the crowd caught on.
Now analysts have flagged five smaller companies supplying the chips, servers, power and networking behind the AI build-out, with price targets as high as 55%. Tell us where to send them and we'll text you all five tickers free, plus SMS alerts when we spot the next setup.
Normally $19.99. Free today.

THE UNLOCK PROBLEM 🔓
Arthur Hayes published a new essay on Wednesday night arguing the AI trade is about to buckle under the weight of its own shares.
Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, and one of crypto's most-read macro essayists.

Arthur Hayes
His target is supply, and SpaceX has already listed, with Anthropic and OpenAI lining up behind it.
Each floats a small slice of shares, and insiders are free to sell more over the following months.
By his count, SpaceX's tradable share count is up 50% since its June debut while the price went nowhere, with another 8.6 billion shares unlocking by next June.
For Anthropic, he reads the filing as roughly 83% dilution for IPO buyers by mid-2027.
The labs are going public to borrow, and lenders read the share price.
A sliding stock means pricier debt for everything AI, banks that stop growing their balance sheets, and fewer dollars flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Thursday gave a taste of it, with SpaceX down 9% and Nvidia down 9.3%.
He's also flagged a weekly drop in US bank balance sheets, though he admits it's only one print.
Of course, this is one trader's maths, and AI revenue could outrun the selling.
He says that wouldn't matter, since the stock price is what lenders watch.
His endgame is still a bailout, with central banks printing to rescue the AI build-out, which he expects to be great for Bitcoin, eventually.
Until then, his fund Maelstrom is sitting it out.
Hayes is waiting on that bailout, and he's reading AI share prices for the first sign of it. 🔓

STARTING LINE 📥
Today we'll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Here's how to interpret this metric:
Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂
Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

8.19 million BTC on exchanges.
We've moved this chart to a new data source, and it puts the figure far higher than our old one did.
So there's no like-for-like comparison with two weeks ago, and this reading becomes our starting point.
That's about 41% of all Bitcoin mined so far.
At today's price it's roughly $640 billion of Bitcoin held on exchanges.
Two weeks from now we'll get the first like-for-like read on which way it's heading. 📥

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Stablecoins Go Mainstream as Samsung Wallet Adds USDC on Solana. Eligible US Galaxy users can now buy, hold and send USDC in the app, which runs on about 82 million compatible devices in the US.
Europe's largest asset manager Amundi tokenizes equity index fund on Ethereum. The new share class tracks the STOXX Europe 600, as tokenized stocks reached $4.24 billion, up nearly 27% in 30 days per RWA.xyz.
Anchorage Digital seeks CFTC swap dealer registration for crypto options business. If approved, the federally chartered crypto bank plans to offer bitcoin and ether options with maturities of up to one year.
Standard Chartered and SBI back crypto insurer Soter as funding reaches $23.5 million. The round also brings in 500 BTC and 2,000 ETH, as banks push for theft cover after Binance's $6.3 billion hack.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Meerkat Explains (link) - Big topics, explained simply
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
After the 2016 DAO hack, Ethereum hard-forked to reverse the theft. What is the original chain, which refused the rollback, called today?
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Ethereum Classic 🥳
A hacker drained about 3.6 million ETH from The DAO, and most of the network forked to reverse the theft. Holdouts who wouldn't rewrite history kept the original chain running as Ethereum Classic (ETC).
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.


