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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #811 pluggin’ in… 🔌🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more cutthroat than a courtroom where power matters more than truth… ⚖️🔥

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin tests $73,000, erasing gains since Trump's election night win

Bitcoin just erased every gain since Trump's election night victory…

BTC crashed to a low of $72,945 on Tuesday - its lowest level in 15 months.

The entire post-election rally is now gone. Since October's all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has dropped 45%.

At the time of writing, it's since bounced slightly to around $76,300. But the damage runs deep.

44% of supply now underwater

According to Glassnode, 44% of all Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss. That's up from just 22% a month ago.

Liquidations keep piling up.

Over $650 million in positions were wiped out in the past 24 hours - with Bitcoin longs taking $234 million of that hit.

This isn't a correction - it's a crypto winter

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan isn't sugarcoating it.

Hougan argues the bear market actually started in January 2025 - not October. If that's true, we're 13 months in.

And historically, crypto winters last about that long.

Galaxy's Alex Thorn warned the slide could continue.

He pointed to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average at $58,000 as a potential target if selling persists.

Stocks are bleeding too

This isn't just a crypto sell-off.

Risk assets are getting crushed across the board.

Software stocks like Shopify, Adobe, and Salesforce dropped 7-12% on Tuesday.

AI giants Nvidia and Microsoft fell 3%. Private equity names like Blackstone and KKR lost 6-10%.

A small relief

Late Tuesday, the House passed a funding bill 217-214, ending the shutdown.

Prices bounced off their lows after the news broke.

But the bounce is fragile…

Ethereum is still down 26% on the week. Solana fell below $100. And prediction markets now put 75% odds on Bitcoin hitting $69,000 before $100,000.

The winter is here. The only question now is how deep it goes.

Let us know your thoughts in the poll below. 👇

We’ll be sharing the results in tomorrow’s newsletter.

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If you’ve been reading us for a while, you already know Tom Lee doesn’t spend much time worrying about short-term price action.

He watches liquidity.
He watches macro.
And most importantly, he watches what tends to lead markets.

In his latest CNBC interview, Lee addressed the question a lot of investors are quietly asking:

If the Fed is easing and the dollar is weakening… why isn’t crypto ripping?

Here was his answer:

Translation: after the blowups and liquidations, there simply isn’t as much speculative fuel in the system.

Less leverage = slower moves.

But Lee pointed to something else siphoning capital right now:

Makes sense.

When traditional hard assets start screaming higher, capital rotates there first. Investors chase what’s already moving.

But here’s the part that matters.

Tom doesn’t see this as competition.

He sees it as a signal:

We’ve seen this movie before.

Gold runs.
Silver follows.
Bitcoin explodes later.

The market often rotates through the traditional store-of-value trade before rediscovering the higher-beta version.

So if you’re wondering why crypto feels sluggish while metals are printing highs…

Tom Lee’s message is simple:

Be patient.

The baton usually gets passed to the winner. 🥇

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.351 (Two weeks ago: 0.423)

That's a sharp drop.

We've moved deeper into the low-risk zone, now sitting well below the 0.5 line.

Still comfortably above the despair levels of deep bear markets, but the gap is narrowing.

What does that mean?

This is no longer the middle. The setup is getting more attractive for buyers.

We're not at generational bottom territory yet - that typically comes below 0.2 - but the risk/reward is shifting.

If BTC Risk keeps dropping toward 0.2-0.3, this becomes a compelling accumulation zone.

If it reverses and climbs back past 0.8, that's your signal to trim, not add. 📊

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Doubles Down on BitMine, Coinbase Stocks Amid Bitcoin Plunge. Cathie Wood's investment firm, Ark Invest, added exposure to crypto-related equities despite a continuing slide in crypto prices.

Trump's Fed Nomination ‘Mixed’ Signal Bitcoin, US Liquidity. President Trump’s nomination for a new Fed chair introduced a mixed signal for Bitcoin and US liquidity, but his perspectives on interest rate policy may hold the key to risk asset recovery.

'You are not scaling Ethereum': Vitalik Buterin issues a blunt reality check to the biggest crypto networks. The roadmap in place doesn't make as much sense because progress among layer-2s toward later stages of decentralization has been slower and more difficult, and Ethereum itself is now scaling directly on layer-1.

Standard Chartered cuts Solana 2026 target to $250, sees shift from 'memecoins to micropayments'. Standard Chartered sees Solana evolving “from memecoins to micropayments", with forecasts of SOL to $2,000 by 2030.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: ETHLend 🥳

Aave launched as ETHLend in 2017 with an ICO that raised $16.2 million. The platform operated as a peer-to-peer lending marketplace before pivoting to the pooled liquidity model and rebranding to Aave (Finnish for "ghost") in September 2018.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.