GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #950 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more steadfast than carrying the ring-bearer uphill after the lembas and small talk run out… 💍⛰️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: SEC Shelves Crypto Rule Meeting Days After Senate Punted Clarity Act

A couple of days ago we said the SEC wasn't waiting for Congress to write crypto's rules.

It turns out someone told it to wait…

The agency had set a meeting for last Friday to propose Regulation Crypto, its own rulebook letting token projects raise money in the US without full SEC registration.

Then it scrapped the meeting, with no new date.

The reason given was a scheduling issue.

Per CoinDesk, the real reason is that the White House and some lawmakers leaned on the agency to hold off.

They worry a fast SEC rule could complicate the CLARITY Act, the crypto bill the Senate returns to next month.

This is the fork we've flagged since July, and the administration has now picked a side.

The SEC's rule is the quick route, but it's reversible, undoable by a future commission without a single vote in Congress.

CLARITY is the slow route, a statute that splits crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC and stays put once it passes.

Move on the reversible version now and you hand wavering senators a reason to ask why the permanent one is even needed.

So the White House benched its own backstop to protect the bigger prize.

The bet is that the permanent rulebook is worth more than the fast one, even at the cost of momentum now.

But CLARITY still needs at least ten Democrats it doesn't have, over the same ethics fight about the president's crypto holdings that stalled it all summer.

If September fails, the workaround the SEC just shelved is the only path left.

For now the whole rulebook hangs on a vote that still doesn't have the numbers.

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Will Clemente just laid the current weekly chart next to late 2022, and the resemblance is hard to unsee.

Clemente is one of the most respected on-chain analysts in crypto and co-founder of Reflexivity Research.

Here's what he posted:

Break down what he's seeing.

Bitcoin sold off directly into the prior cycle's all-time high, that old $20k region from 2021, and turned it into support. On the way down it printed its first oversold weekly reading in years.

Then the tell. As price grinds lower, momentum refuses to follow, forming a bull divergence. Price making lower lows while the underlying strength quietly builds a higher floor.

That exact structure appeared on the weekly in late 2022, at the point maximum fear handed off to a 2.5 year bull market that ran to $126k.

Oversold, into former resistance, with momentum diverging. The last time the chart looked like this, it paid to be buying.

History doesn't repeat, but it's rhyming loudly. 🪞

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 81.39% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

Up from 81.28% two weeks ago, a 0.11% tick that claws back half of last print's dip.

Two weeks ago the base gave back 0.22% and we wondered whether old hands were finally stirring.

This print they quietened down.

Coins keep crossing the six-month line and aging up, nudging the 6-12 month, 1-2 year and 2-3 year bands all higher, none by more than 0.14%.

The 3-5 year band kept leaking, down another 0.20%, though that's well short of last print's 0.55%, so the give-back is fading.

The oldest supply barely stirred, the 10-year-plus base a rounding 0.02% higher at 17.76%.

More than four in five Bitcoin still sit dormant six months or longer, and last print's wobble already reads as noise against a base back to tightening. 💎

People Are Turning to AI for Mental Health, California Wants It Banned. A California bill would prevent AI chatbots from acting as therapists.

Crypto investors are looking past market-cap rankings and back to fundamentals. Investors are increasingly judging tokens by usage, economics and value capture.

Ethereum devs to narrow 66 proposals tied to Hegotá upgrade. Native privacy is among the priorities, with FOCIL currently the only scheduled inclusion.

Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin AG in latest spat over sports contracts. Novig has sued officials in five states as the federal-versus-state fight expands.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A project's team abandoning it or draining funds after attracting buyers 🥳

A rug pull is an exit scam that leaves holders with a collapsed or worthless token after the people behind the project disappear or remove its liquidity.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.