GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #967 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more sure the Force is with us than a farm boy who switched off his targeting computer for one shot down the trench… ⚔️🌌

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin Holds, Wall Street Stalls as Oil Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets

Bitcoin spent Tuesday pinned to a line it can't afford to lose.

At around $78,300 sits the floor under its recent run at $80,000, and what's leaning on it has nothing to do with crypto.

Oil pushed to a three-month high, with WTI near $95 a barrel and Brent creeping toward $100, as tensions flared again around the Strait of Hormuz.

Pricier oil feeds straight into inflation, which is the last thing a Fed already tempted to hike wants to see.

Odds of a rate hike at next week's meeting have crept back to about 59%.

This is the same channel that's moved Bitcoin all year…

War headlines don't spook it anymore, but they reach it through oil, then inflation, then a central bank that won't cut.

Higher crude, higher hike odds, and a rates asset like Bitcoin gets squeezed.

Stocks wore it worse on Tuesday, with the Dow off more than 1%, while Bitcoin roughly held its ground.

The whole market is now frozen until Friday, when August inflation prints and settles whether the hike talk sticks.

Forecasts have headline inflation holding near 3.4%, so a hot number would all but lock it in.

Analyst Rekt Capital warns a weekly close under $78,300 would confirm a lower high, echoing May, when a break from $82,800 unravelled toward $57,000.

Hold above it and the rally lives to see that number.

Lose it first, and a breakdown does the Fed's tightening for it. 🚀

Ready to stop scrolling job boards and start building something of your own?

The Hustle's free "Side Hustle Ideas Database" uncovers 100 unconventional, actually-actionable ways to earn on the side.

Inside you'll find:

Subscribe for free today and get instant access. Your next income stream is one click away.

Get The Free Guide

While the market holds its breath for Friday's inflation print, Fred Krueger is watching a different number, and it's one the Fed doesn't get to set.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

Here's what he posted:

The 10-year Treasury yield is the long end of the bond market, the rate buyers and sellers set rather than the Fed.

The lead up top is all about the short end, whether next week's meeting brings a hike off a hot, oil-fed inflation number.

Krueger's call sits a level above.

He sees the 10-year grinding to 5% whatever the Fed does at the front.

Washington has to sell a wall of new debt to cover its deficit, and buyers won't take it without a fatter yield.

A 5% ten-year reprices everything stacked on top of it, from mortgages to corporate loans to the government's own interest bill.

That's the same pressure weighing on Bitcoin right now.

But both stories run off one engine.

A government that can only fund itself by issuing more paper is the oldest case ever made for owning something with a fixed supply.

Bitcoin gets sold in the scramble for cash, and it exists for the exact reason the long end won't sit still.

The inflation print lands Friday. The bond market has already made up its mind. 📈

Today we’ll be taking a look at the overall stablecoin supply.

Stablecoins are the backbone of crypto liquidity, used for seamless trading and instant cross-border transactions.

The chart below tracks the aggregate change in the total stablecoin market cap.

$262.96 billion in stablecoins now sit on-chain. (Two weeks ago: $261.62 billion)

Up $1.34 billion in a fortnight, and the first back-to-back green print in two months.

Last print supply clawed back nearly half of a $2.87 billion drop and we called the money “sloshing in and out.”

This print it kept coming, at nearly the same pace.

Two green prints of $1.37 billion and $1.34 billion have now put back close to everything that red print took out.

Stablecoin supply grows when fresh dollars are minted onto exchanges to deploy, so this is new capital arriving, two fortnights running.

The pool is near enough back to where it sat two months ago, so the summer drain has been all but undone.

Neither print was big, but together they’ve put the pool back to where the summer started. 💵

Strategy's Return to Bitcoin Buying Lasted Exactly One Week. The Bitcoin treasury giant skipped a purchase this week, spending $176.3 million buying back its own STRC preferred stock and doubling that buyback program to $2 billion.

Jack Dorsey's Block joins rush for federal bank charters from OCC. The Jack Dorsey-founded payments company is seeking to become a federally regulated national bank, joining a wave of crypto and fintech firms applying to the OCC.

Robinhood takes stakes in Crypto.com, OG.com in prediction markets deal. Robinhood will route event contracts through OG.com's CFTC-regulated infrastructure and take equity stakes valued against Crypto.com's recent $20 billion valuation.

Circle agrees to buy cross-border payments firm Tazapay for $400 million. The USDC issuer is paying $400 million for regulated last-mile infrastructure linking stablecoins to local banking systems, largely across Asia.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Recovering access to a wallet and its funds 🥳

A seed phrase is a list of 12 or 24 words that backs up a wallet's private keys, and anyone who holds it controls the funds.

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.