GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #791 clearin’ the way… 🧹🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more savage than a frontier revenge story where nobody gets out clean… 🪓❄️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Strategy's stock rallies 5% after MSCI says will not bar DATs 'for the time being'

Well there it is…

The huge FUD surrounding whether Strategy would be excluded from MSCI indexes has been addressed.

The global index provider will not exclude DATs from its indexes in February. Strategy stock surged 7.5% after hours.

What MSCI said

But MSCI confirmed "institutional investor concern that some DATs exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are not eligible for inclusion."

The firm said distinguishing between investment companies and those holding digital assets "as part of their core operations requires further research."

Translation: Digital Asset Treasury companies aren’t fully out of the water yet but are safe for now.

Why this matters

In October, MSCI proposed excluding firms with 50%+ of assets in digital assets. That flagged 39 companies.

Strategy was the biggest target. JPMorgan estimated the company could face billions in outflows if removed from major indexes.

Passive funds tracking those indexes would be forced to sell MSTR shares.

Critics argued MSCI's 50% threshold was arbitrary. Different countries report crypto under different accounting rules.

Strategy argued its Bitcoin buying is core operations, not passive investment.

This isn't over

For now, analysts are still cautious.

Benchmark's Mark Palmer called it "a welcome reprieve" but noted: "This episode is not yet over."

MSCI opened a broader review of "non-operating companies" and may create new criteria to determine DAT eligibility.

What happens next

For now, Strategy and other DATs stay in. But MSCI left the door open for future exclusion.

The fight shifts from "will they exclude DATs?" to "how will MSCI define operating companies?"

Less immediate pressure. But not resolved. 🚀

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Cathie Wood runs ARK Invest and has been one of the loudest institutional Bitcoin bulls for years, so when she talks, it’s not coming from the sidelines.

On Fox Business this week, she basically said what most of the market isn’t ready to hear yet:

The low is already in.

Here’s what she said, verbatim:

Translation: the old playbook was 75% to 90% drawdowns.

But the market’s different now.

Less wild volatility, more real money, more institutions treating BTC like an asset class, not a casino chip.

And if she’s right, then the scary part is this:

Most people are still bracing for lower.

Meanwhile the next all-time highs might be closer than anyone expects. 👀

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.423 (Two weeks ago: 0.416)

That puts us below the 0.5 line, firmly in the low to mid-risk zone.

We're well below the spikes that marked prior blow-off tops, and comfortably above the despair levels of deep bear markets.

In plain English:

If BTC Risk drifts lower, the signal gets more attractive for buyers.

If it grinds up toward 0.8+, that's when you start thinking about trimming, not topping up. 📊

Bitcoin set for big move as whales add 56,227 BTC while tiny wallets sell - this pattern usually ends one way. Bitcoin's return to $94,000 is fueled by macroeconomic shifts, institutional inflows, and reduced speculative leverage.

Bitcoin ETFs Attract $697M in Second Trading Day of 2026. Bitcoin ETFs are signaling a rising demand for digital asset products, as the new year’s “clean-slate effect” is bringing resurgent investments.

Crypto bill markup expected next week as pressure mounts before shutdown deadline. Senators met to restart the high-stakes negotiation over the crypto market structure bill, and one of them reportedly said a markup is planned next week.

'Shocker': Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin and Solana ETF filings signal deep institutional commitment to crypto. One expert says this could nudge other major investment firms to launch in-house branded spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Burned 90% and donated 10% to charity 🥳

Vitalik burned 410 trillion SHIB (worth around $6.7 billion at the time) and donated the rest - worth over $1 billion - to various charities, including COVID relief in India.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.