GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #841 checkin’ the vitals… 💓🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more disorienting than waking up in a room with no memory and a corpse on the floor… 🧩🔦

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: SEC and CFTC unveil new crypto guidance declaring most digital assets are not securities

After more than ten years of uncertainty, the SEC finally drew the line.

On Tuesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued its first-ever guidance defining how it will classify crypto assets - and the message was clear: most cryptocurrencies are not securities.

The 68-page guidance, issued jointly with the CFTC, lays out a new token taxonomy.

It defines four categories, none of which fall under securities law.

Only "digital securities" which are traditional securities issued on blockchain, remain under SEC oversight.

The guidance also clarifies that airdrops, protocol staking, and mining are not securities transactions.

And here's a key nuance: even when a token does become a security through an investment contract, that status can end once the issuer fulfils or fails to deliver on its promises.

This is the complete opposite of what the previous administration did.

Under former Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC refused to create crypto-specific rules.

Instead, it sued Coinbase, Binance, Ripple, and others while broadly claiming that most tokens were securities. That era is now officially over.

The SEC and CFTC issued this guidance together - just days after signing a formal agreement to regulate crypto as partners rather than rivals. That alone is a major shift from the turf wars of recent years.

But this is just the start.

Atkins said a formal rule proposal - expected to be over 400 pages - is coming "in a week or two." It will include an "innovation exemption" for crypto firms and further detail on how the new framework will work.

The guidance also serves as a bridge while Congress works on the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill we've been covering that could codify these changes into law.

As CFTC Chairman Mike Selig put it: "The signal is clear now that it's time to build in the United States." 🚀

That’s what NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang just said about the AI boom, even calling it “the largest infrastructure buildout in human history.”

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Mark Yusko just walked through exactly where we are in the cycle.

And if he's right, the worst is behind us.

Yusko is the founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management.

Before that, he ran the endowment investment offices at both the University of North Carolina and Notre Dame. He's managed billions across every asset class for decades. T

his is a man who thinks in cycles for a living.

And in his latest interview with Coinage Media, he broke down the anatomy of a crypto cycle in a way that makes the current moment crystal clear.

Here's how he explained it:

During crypto winter, the investors step in first. They buy below fair value. That's what causes spring. Then the traders come back and momentum builds.

Then the hedgers, the miners who were holding because prices were below production costs, start selling into strength.

Speculators take the other side of that trade. And then, as prices climb higher, the leverage and the gamblers arrive.

That's what causes the parabolic moves. And eventually the peak. And then the crash.

His point? We are nowhere near that final stage. We're still in the part where serious investors are quickly accumulating below fair value.

And this time, the correction didn't need to go as deep.

Bitcoin only reached 1.5x fair value in October, compared to far more extreme overextensions in previous cycles. Less excess means less unwinding.

Yusko's conclusion:

The cycle isn't broken.

It's playing out exactly as it always has.

And the smart money is already moving. 🧠

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.334 (Two weeks ago: 0.303)

A bounce back up…

After weeks of drifting deeper into low-risk territory, BTC Risk has ticked higher - moving away from the floor rather than toward it.

Does that mean the window is closing?

Not quite. We're still well below the 0.5 midpoint, which means the risk/reward still favours buyers over sellers at these levels. But the direction has shifted. Two weeks ago the metric was compressing toward accumulation territory - now it's expanding.

This is what early recovery looks like on-chain. Price stabilises, risk recalibrates, and the metric starts climbing before sentiment catches up.

The deep discount zone below 0.2 hasn’t arrived this cycle. But anything under 0.5 is still historically favourable ground. 📊

Morgan Stanley exec says crypto ETF adoption still 'very early' as advisors weigh allocations. Most demand for crypto ETFs at major brokerages is still coming from self-directed investors, Morgan Stanley’s Amy Oldenburg said.

Senate is making progress on market structure bill, Banking panel head says. The South Carolina Republican said he might see a draft of stablecoin yield language as soon as this week, and other issues continue to be negotiated.

Mastercard to Acquire BVNK in $1.8B Stablecoin Payments Push. Mastercard is buying stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, expanding its capabilities to connect fiat and blockchain-based payment systems.

Strategy (MSTR) Is About To Own More Bitcoin Than BlackRock. Strategy (MSTR) is closing in on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A pair of tokens locked in a smart contract that enables decentralised trading 🥳

Liquidity pools power automated market makers like Uniswap and Curve. Users deposit pairs of tokens into a pool and earn fees from trades executed against it. This model replaced traditional order books in DeFi and made permissionless trading possible, though it comes with risks like impermanent loss.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.