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PLUS: FTX payouts begin
GM to all you nutcases. Crypto Nutshell #559 keepin’ cool… 🧘🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more intense than a high-stakes poker game where the wrong move could cost everything... ♠️💰
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🎬 It begins
👃🏼 Smells like opportunity…
😱 Shaken out
💰 And more…
Prices as at 2:25am ET
IT BEGINS 🎬
BREAKING: Collapsed Crypto Exchange FTX Begins Repaying Billions to Customers
Here's some good news…
FTX customers are finally getting their money back!
Yesterday, FTX began distributing $1.2 billion to creditors with claims under $50,000. (Payouts are being made in fiat)
This repayment marks the first step in a massive $16 billion repayment plan.
After 830 days, those affected by crypto’s most infamous collapse are finally receiving their funds.
"The start of these distributions is an incredible and important milestone for FTX.”
But there's a slight catch.
Even though creditors are getting their lost funds back...
Payouts are being calculated based on the price of crypto at the time of FTX's collapse in November 2022.
Here’s where prices were back then:
Bitcoin: ~$20,000
Ethereum: ~$1,580
Solana: ~$30
Fast forward to today:
Bitcoin is ~$95,000 (Investors missed out on a 4.75x)
Ethereum is ~$2,670 (Investors missed out on a 1.69x)
Solana is ~$165 (Investors missed out on a 5.5x)
"Most users will recover only a fraction of their original holdings. Worse yet, reimbursements will be based on asset prices at the time of FTX's collapse."
Let this be a lesson to everyone holding for the long term:
Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins
Thousands of FTX customers thought their funds were safe—only to lose years of gains by trusting a centralized exchange.
If you're serious about owning your crypto, use cold storage.
DOMINATE THIS ALT-SEASON 🚀
Two weeks ago, in Crypto Nutshell Pro, we called this out:
“We believe RWA’s outperformance won’t be just a short-term trend.”
We were right.
Since adding it to our portfolio, our #1 RWA pick is up +323.11%.
But we’ve nailed other sectors too.
Like memes - currently our #1 Meme pick is up +306.46%.
Compare this to Bitcoin gains of just +58.05% since the inception of the portfolio.
Altcoins have done pretty lousy since the start of 2025… 😢
But thanks to our in-depth research & picks, the Nutshell Portfolio is still outperforming Bitcoin.
Last month, we opened the doors to the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio to 30 new members.
We keep the group small, to really maxmise the alpha.
In 48 hours time we’ll be opening up just 15 spots.
If you’re interested in altcoin coverage, buy recommendations & want to outperform Bitcoin, click below to join the waitlist:
Once the 15 open slots are gone, they’re gone.
First in, first served. (Crypto Nutshell has just under 100,000 daily readers, you do the math)
SMELLS LIKE OPPORTUNITY 👃🏼
Crypto investors are depressed right now.
Altcoins are bleeding. Sentiment is in the gutter.
Meanwhile, institutions are all-in.
Matt Hougan smells opportunity.
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
In his latest memo, Matt broke down the biggest contrast in crypto:
“Retail sentiment in crypto is terrible even though the fundamentals are great.”
Institutions are more bullish than ever. Yet retail thinks it’s game over:
On the one hand, institutional sentiment towards crypto is the most bullish I’ve ever seen… And yet. Today, retail investors are wallowing in despair.
This isn’t just talk - the data proves it:
“We have a proprietary crypto sentiment score at Bitwise that looks at on-chain data, flows, and derivative analytics to determine the mood of crypto investors. It’s at one of its lowest readings of all time.”
Bitwise Proprietary Sentiment Score
Past cycles show what happens next.
When retail panic-sells & institutions accumulate, it’s not a matter of if the market turns - it’s when.
Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamic is undeniable.
Meanwhile, Matt believes the long-term setup for altcoins has never been better:
“But long-term, I think the setup for altcoins is stronger than at any point in history.”
Regulatory uncertainty kept real adoption at bay for years. Now?
The U.S. is embracing crypto, institutions feel safe building, and tokenized assets are taking off.
If you squint, you can already see the shift happening. Soon, you won’t have to.
Smart money is already positioning.
Are you? 🤨
“Retail sentiment is bad in crypto right now, and to me, that signals opportunity.”
SHAKEN OUT 😱
Time for a check in on one of our favourite charts.
The supply last active 1+ years ago metric is super simple to understand and extremely useful.
It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (As a percentage of the circulating supply)
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 61.87% (down from 62.91%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 52.81% (down from 53.09%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 45.41% (down from 45.58%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.47% (down from 30.52%)
This time, every age band saw a decline… 😢
Meaning some long-term holders finally decided to move their coins. (Either taking profits or consolidating holdings)
But zoom out and the bigger picture is clear: 61.87% of Bitcoin’s supply remains untouched for over a year.
Even with Bitcoin dipping below $95,000, the fundamentals haven’t changed.
Short-term volatility shakes out weak hands, but the real long-term holders?
They’re still here, still stacking, and still betting on much higher prices. 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
XRP trading booms on US exchanges as ETF speculation heats up. XRP liquidity also shows signs of robustness, following its market cap closely.
FTX’s $1.2B repayments mark key moment in crypto industry recovery. FTX’s Bahamas wing will honor the first batch of repayments for users who are owed less than $50,000 worth of claims.
Creator of Controversial LIBRA Memecoin Introduced MELANIA, Says He Sniped Both Tokens. Hayden Davis said he refunded $5 million to Dave Portnoy who lost money on LIBRA.
SEC acknowledges spot XRP ETF filing from Bitwise. Once acknowledged, a filing will be published in the Federal Register, initiating the SEC’s approval process.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did popular altcoin Solana launch? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) March 2020 🥳
Solana was first opened to the public in March 2020, with its first block being created on 16 March 2020.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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