GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #920 bringin‘ the news… 🛎️🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more switched-on than a consulting detective spotting the mud pattern before Scotland Yard finds the doorbell… 🕵️🧪

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Michael Saylor's Strategy dramatically ups pace of bitcoin sales, raising $216 million

A month ago, Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin and the market completely lost its mind.

This week he sold 3,588… and barely anyone flinched.

That's the whole story, really.

Strategy offloaded 3,588 BTC last week for about $216 million, more than a hundred times the size of that infamous 32-coin sale in early June.

The cash went straight to covering dividends on its preferred stock and refilling its dollar reserve, now sitting at $2.55 billion.

Cast your mind back to that first sale…

32 coins, $2.5M, and it triggered Strategy's worst week since 2022.

The fear was simple: if the market's biggest buyer becomes a seller, who's left to catch Bitcoin?

This time? Bitcoin gave up maybe a thousand dollars and shrugged it off.

At the time of writing it’s back near $64k.

So what changed?

Strategy built a framework for it.

Selling is no longer a panic move, it's a stated policy, part of the "monetization program" it announced to keep dividends flowing.

The market's had time to price it in, and a scheduled sale scares people far less than a surprise one.

Now here's where the smart money splits.

Grayscale reckons these sales are actually bullish. By shoring up its cash and calming fears about its financing, Strategy removes a big tail risk hanging over the whole market, which helps Bitcoin carve out a more durable bottom.

Bernstein agrees forced selling is off the table (Strategy's debt is just 13% of its Bitcoin) and kept its wild $150K year-end target.

JPMorgan sees it the other way.

A Strategy that both buys and sells adds "two-way risk," a company that used to be a one-way wall of demand is now a wildcard that can hit the bid too.

Underneath it all, the paper losses are still ugly.

Strategy booked an $8.3 billion loss on its Bitcoin last quarter, with its stack now worth $11.4 billion less than it paid.

So the real question isn't whether Strategy is selling.

It's whether a predictable seller is scarier than an unpredictable one. The market just voted "no." 🚀

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Raoul Pal just shared the 1 chart he says explains everything. And most people still don't get it.

Pal is a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and founder of Real Vision. This chart is the foundation of his entire debasement thesis, the reason he holds crypto at all.

Here's what he posted:

And here's the chart up close:

2 lines. Labor force participation versus government debt as a % of GDP, inverted. They move in perfect lockstep.

The story it tells is simple and brutal. As the working-age population shrinks, governments borrow to fill the gap. And since 2008, that borrowing has mostly gone toward servicing old debts while interest payments compound on themselves.

Then comes the line that should stop you cold.

That's the trap. You can't print workers. The demographic hole for the next decade is already locked in. Which leaves only 1 lever: borrow more, debase more.

This is why Pal says currency debasement runs at roughly 8% a year. Why he says holding cash is melting ice. And why scarce assets, Bitcoin above all, are the only life raft.

The chart isn't a prediction. It's a schedule. 🧬

Back to the ETF flow data - our weekly read on institutional appetite.

Green means money flowing in, red means it’s heading out.

Two weeks ago both assets were bleeding hard. This week, the bleeding's easing.

Bitcoin ETFs shed about $526 million over the last five days - down sharply from the $1.71 billion that walked out the week before.

And the streak broke green: July 2nd pulled in $223 million, led by Fidelity and Ark outweighing another day of IBIT redemptions.

Ethereum barely moved - roughly $26 million out on the week, closing with two straight green days.

So the institutional exit is slowing… and both assets finished the week buying rather than selling.

Not a full reversal, though.

Lifetime, these funds still hold over $51 billion in Bitcoin and $11 billion in Ethereum - this recent pressure is a dent, not a drain.

But after weeks of one-way outflows, the first green prints in a while are the thing to watch. 📊

Solana Meme Coin Bonk Treasury Drained of $20 Million in 'Malicious' Governance Attack. BonkDAO’s treasury was drained after a malicious governance proposal, making it a sharp governance-risk quick hit.

Circle’s USDC is leaving Tether behind in the stablecoin volume race, new data from Visa shows. Visa data showed stablecoin volume hitting a record and USDC gaining activity share as banks move deeper into digital-dollar settlement.

UN agency moves Stellar blockchain payment initiative beyond pilot stage. The UNDP’s Stellar-based payment work is moving beyond pilot stage, giving the section a real-world blockchain-payments adoption item.

Paradigm leads $5.5 million seed round in M1X Global to expand tokenized sovereign debt platform. M1X raised funding to expand tokenized sovereign-debt infrastructure, a useful smaller tokenization story.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: An unspent transaction output that can be used as input for a future transaction. 🥳

Bitcoin tracks spendable chunks of value as UTXOs. When you make a payment, your wallet uses one or more unspent outputs as inputs and usually creates new outputs for the recipient and any change.

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