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🥜 Most Important Investment Of Our Lifetime
PLUS: Ethereum ETFs?
GM to all 42,168 of you. Crypto Nutshell #215 makin’ moves. ♟️ 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that won't vanish like a group of teenagers facing supernatural occurrences in a small town... 🌌 👻
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🎆 Why Ethereum will explode in 2024
🎯 Most important investment of our lifetime
🤑 Bitcoin’s profitability
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:30am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
WHY ETHEREUM WILL EXPLODE IN 2024 🎆
BREAKING: SEC has a ‘hard no’ stance on spot Ethereum ETFs, but issuers are optimistic
Will the Ethereum ETFs be approved?
That's a tough question to answer.
Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terret, revealed conflicting opinions from issuers and the SEC.
Some asset managers are optimistic about approval.
“[One] issuer with an ETH Spot ETF application says they’re confident the approval and smooth launch of the Bitcoin spots will compel the [SEC] to approve ETH spot ETFs.”
Another unnamed issuer noted the following reasons for why the ETFs will be approved:
SEC has already approved Ethereum futures ETFs
BlackRock’s track record
CFTC believes ETH is a commodity - Ripple court case victory
However, the SEC currently has no plans to approve an Ethereum ETF:
“Another source tells me the line at the SEC at this very moment is a ‘hard no’ and there’s currently ‘some internal resistance’ to the idea.”
BUT, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce had something very interesting to say yesterday...
The SEC doesn’t want to repeat the same mistakes they made in continually denying the Bitcoin ETFs.
“We need to just be applying regular [consideration] to these products. The same kind of consideration that we apply to similar products and, so, we shouldn’t need a court to tell us that our approach is arbitrary and capricious in order for us to get it right.”
To put a number on the approval odds, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes there's a 70% chance we see approval in May.
At the end of the day, only time will tell.
(If you're curious, we're pretty confident we see approval in May)
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MOST IMPORTANT INVESTMENT OF OUR LIFETIME 🎯
Today, Cathie Wood was interviewed by CNBC.
Within the interview, she called Bitcoin one of the most important investments of our lifetime.
“This has not disturbed our point of view at all. We think this is one of the most important investments of our lifetime.”
With Bitcoin falling below $40,000, Cathie was first asked what she thought was the cause of the sell-off.
She made the point, it’s the ghost of FTX, still haunting us. 👻
“Well it turns out, FTX had nearly $1 billion dollars in GBTC. Which has been sold, as the Bitcoin ETF has come out. I think that’s been part of the pressure.”
When comparing the launch of the Bitcoin ETF to its closest comparison, the gold ETF, the price action has been spooky similar.
Gold ETF approved at red arrow (notice the immediate sell-off?)
Cathie finished the interview by confirming that recent price action has not changed ARK Invest's position at all:
“This has not disturbed our point of view at all… Our price target, as you know, is quite high. If you give us the time-horizon to 2030.”
For those who don’t know Cathie’s 2030 Bitcoin price targets are:
Bear Case: $258,500
Base Case: $682,800
Bull Case: $1,480,000
Some major conviction from an O.G investor. Cathie first began buying Bitcoin at just $250.
A true HODLer. 👏
BITCOIN’S PROFITABILITY 🤑
Today we’ll be taking a look at the profitability of the Bitcoin Network.
Are coins being sold at a profit or a loss?
To do this, we’ll be using the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio metric.
Although this metric may sound a little confusing, really it’s quite simple. It tracks the sale of every coin and determines whether it was in profit or not.
This is done by comparing the fiat value of a coin when it is first purchased to the fiat value when it is sold.
aSOPR > 1: on average, coins are being sold at a profit 🐂
aSOPR < 1: on average, coins are being sold at a loss 🐻
aSOPR = 1: on average, coins are being sold at breakeven 😐
The cool thing about aSOPR is that coin volume isn’t considered in the calculation.
This means that whales can’t heavily skew this data by locking in huge profits. Think coins being sold from 2013 etc. All we’re looking at here is if the transaction was in profit or loss.
Today, aSOPR is at 1.029.
And it’s been positive since October 2023.
Indicating that on average, Bitcoiners have been realising profits. 🤑
Glassnode notes that this is just one of the many metrics that indicates healthy market conditions.
(Although it may not feel like it with the recent sell-offs)
Sometimes you just need to zoom out a little…
Things are still lookin’ good! 😎
(we’re focused on the long-term)
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Binance and SEC both criticized by judge during latest court hearing. Binance and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) attended a court hearing on Jan. 22, Reuters reported on the same day.
Bitcoin price often drops 20% in bull markets — but it's becoming less frequent. Bitcoin’s recent retracement only shows that the world’s most liquid cryptocurrency is still volatile.
JPMorgan downgrades Coinbase stock to ‘underweight’ following spot Bitcoin ETF approvals. JPMorgan analysts changed their position on Coinbase stock after the price of Bitcoin dropped under $40,000.
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Approximately, how many Bitcoin's are created each day? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
We’re back 🥲 (that's Michael Saylor btw)
Trivia Answer: D) 900 Bitcoin 🥳
Every 10 minutes, miners verify one block of bitcoin transactions. The current reward for verifying one block of bitcoin is 6.25 bitcoins. So, approximately 900 bitcoins are released into the market every day.
(6.25 × 6 × 24 = 900)
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research
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