GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #914 keepin‘ it sweet… 🍬🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more focused than a deputy marshal reading the alias before the train wreck dust settles… 🚂🔎

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: $4 billion gone. Spot bitcoin ETFs are on track for their worst month on record

$4 billion.

That's how much investors yanked out of spot Bitcoin ETFs this month.

The worst single month since the funds launched, blowing past the old high of $3.56B from early 2025.

Remember when SpaceX's IPO was supposed to pour fresh money into crypto?

That was three weeks ago.

Instead, the institutional bid didn't just fade… it reversed.

And the price shows it.

Bitcoin's sitting under $60K, down nearly 7% on the week and roughly 30% for the first half of 2026.

That makes it one of the worst-performing major assets on the board, beaten only to the downside by Strategy's stock, which has cratered 45%.

Which brings us to the elephant in the room.

Strategy is now around $13 billion underwater on its 847,363 BTC.

Its STRC preferred stock, built to hug $100, fell as low as $71. And its whole market value just dropped below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

When the market values you at less than your own stash, raising fresh cash through share sales gets brutally hard. The money machine that funded all that buying starts to grind.

So what does Saylor do?

He posts the orange-dot chart again. Captioned: "We're gonna need more charts."

Translation: another buy is coming.

Which is either conviction or stubbornness, depending who you ask.

Grayscale's research head is openly hoping Strategy sells $3 billion in Bitcoin to shore up confidence.

CryptoQuant says stop buying and rebuild cash.

Ripple's CEO says Saylor "wasn't focused on the right stuff." The buyer everyone relied on is now the risk everyone's watching.

This $50K-$60K zone is the one that's absorbed every selloff since mid-2024.

We're still in it. And some argue STRC self-repairs once it falls below par, since Strategy halts new share issuance and the fatter yield lures buyers back.

Two losing quarters to start a year has only happened twice in Bitcoin's history.

Q3 starts Wednesday.

We're about to find out which way it breaks. 🚀

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When one of the most respected indie builders on the internet maps out Bitcoin's cycles, it's worth a look. Pieter Levels just did exactly that.

Levels, known online as @levelsio, is a legendary solo founder who's built dozens of profitable products and has a massive following for his data-driven, no-nonsense takes.

This week he turned his attention to Bitcoin's four-year cycle.

Here's what he posted:

His framing is refreshingly simple. Bitcoin has always operated in four-year cycles that crash at the end. 2014. 2018. 2022. And now 2026.

And here's the mindset that separates the winners from the rest:

That's the whole game. The despair at the end of each cycle is the opportunity. The people who give up at the bottom are the ones who hand their coins to the people who hold through.

He even built a live, dynamic chart to illustrate it:

The model is tied to the halving, which cuts the reward miners receive every four years and has historically kicked off every boom. His projection? The next bull cycle begins around October 31, 2026, which theoretically marks the bottom.

In other words, we're sitting in the exact part of the cycle where it always feels hopeless. Right before it turns.

The pattern doesn't care about the headlines. Maximum despair. Bottom forming. Next cycle loading.

2027 to 2031 is where the magic happens. And it's almost here. 🔄

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 19.83% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 20.28% two weeks ago - and for the first time, short-term supply has dropped below 20%.

This fortnight the story flips to the front end. Both the youngest bands grew: brand-new coins (<1 day) ticked up, and the 1 day to 1 week band jumped from 1.90% to 2.32%. Fresh buying actually picked up - the opposite of last period, when the front end cooled.

But everything behind it kept draining. The 1 week to 1 month and 1 to 3 month bands both shrank as coins aged forward, and the 3-6 month band bled again - 8.20% down to 7.92% - as another batch crossed the six-month line into long-term territory.

So new buyers are showing up at the door… they're just massively outnumbered by coins graduating out the back.

Net it out: short-term supply has fallen under 20%, down from roughly 30% to start the year. That's nearly a third of the reactive, panic-prone float drained away in six months - and it just hit a fresh low. 💎

The Future Cyberpunk Imagined Is Here: How Much Did It Get Right? From AI to brain implants, the piece looks at where cyberpunk accurately anticipated today’s tech culture and where the bigger prediction was social, not technical.

SBI’s $289 million Bitbank deal is symptomatic of Japan’s crypto consolidation: Architect Partners. The purchase is framed as a regulated-scale bet as Japan reshapes its digital-asset market.

Binance posts over $400M in weekly net outflows as MiCA deadline nears. Early exchange-flow data shows no clear mass migration yet, even as Binance prepares to restrict some EU services before the July 1 MiCA deadline.

SecondFi maps recovery path after $2.4 million Cardano wallet exploit, aims to return funds within two weeks. The exploit drained ADA from 374 addresses through a wallet-generation flaw, and EMURGO says a recovery path is now mapped.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.