GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #69 comin’ in with a bang… 💥🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last weeks Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin is at ~$68,000. Ethereum is at ~$1,975. Oil is at $93.

A week ago we were talking about Supreme Court rulings, stablecoin regulations and AI.

Now we're talking about war…

On February 28th, the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggering retaliatory missile attacks across the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Oil has surged from $69 to $93 in a week. Dubai's airport shut down. Markets are in full risk-off mode.

And then Friday's jobs report made everything worse.

The US economy didn't just slow down. It lost 92,000 jobs in February. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. This wasn't a soft miss. This was a complete disaster.

So here we are: oil spiking, jobs collapsing, and a Fed that can't do anything about either one.

Let's unpack what this means. 👇

The Fed Is In Checkmate

This is the single most important thing to understand right now.

The Fed has a dual mandate: keep inflation low and keep employment high.

When one of those breaks, they can fix it. If jobs weaken, they cut rates. If inflation runs hot, they hold or hike.

But when both break at the same time, the Fed is stuck.

That's exactly where we are right now.

Oil at $93 and rising means inflation is going higher. There's no way around that.

Oil feeds directly into transportation, food, energy, and manufacturing costs.

The February CPI and PCE numbers come out next week. Even if they're manageable, the March readings will be ugly because they'll reflect the oil spike we're living through right now.

At the same time, the labour market just cracked. Negative 92,000 jobs. Unemployment at 4.4% and rising.

Year-over-year job creation has collapsed to barely 156,000, down from 1 to 2 million in pre-pandemic years. We are dangerously close to the year-over-year change going negative, which has historically aligned with every recession since 1948.