GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #96 prowlin’ in… 🐯🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last weeks Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin’s at $77,296, down 2.9% on the week.

Ethereum’s at $2,515, up 2.5%.

For once the split is the story, because ether hasn’t had a week like that against Bitcoin in a while, and it managed it in a week Bitcoin spent going backwards.

But zoom out and both were props in the same show, and the show was about one thing: the Fed decision that lands on Wednesday.

Last Saturday we told you good economic news would keep feeling like bad news until inflation gets near 2% or the Fed stops caring about it, and that neither happens before that meeting.

Five days later the inflation data came in better than it’s been in about five years, and Bitcoin fell anyway.

Friday morning the US published August CPI, the last big inflation read before the Fed meets.

The core reading, which strips out food and energy and is the one the Fed actually watches, came in at 2.4% over the year.

That’s the lowest in about five years, down from 2.5% in July, and it’s exactly the disinflation the whole market has been waiting on.

Bitcoin’s first move was to spike. It ran from around $76,700 up toward $80,000, tagged $79,000, and ether reclaimed $2,600 for the first time in seven months.

Then it gave almost all of it back and finished the day near $77,000, roughly flat.

Because there was a second number in the same report, and it cut the other way.

The monthly core figure was 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% forecast.

It was actually 0.29%, a rounding hair away from a cool 0.2% print, but it rounded up, and the market traded the up.

A soft yearly trend sitting on top of a hot monthly pulse is the most awkward combination this data can produce, because it lets everyone keep the view they walked in with.

And the view the Fed walked in with is that inflation still isn’t beaten.

The gauge it prefers, PCE, is running near 3.7% against a 2% target, and by the Kobeissi Letter’s count the US has now had 60 straight months of inflation above that target.

So a five-year low in one line didn’t change the path.

It just confirmed the path was still pointing at a rate hike, four days out.

The mood didn’t match the price, either. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 73, well into “greed”, in a week Bitcoin lost ground.

That gap between how people feel and where price is tends to close the uncomfortable way.