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What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Trump went from "winding down" to threatening Iran's power grid in 24 hours and the market felt every second of it.

On Friday, Trump said he was thinking about winding down the military operation in Iran.

By Saturday night, he issued a 48-hour ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz or the US will "hit and obliterate" Iran's power plants.

That deadline lands Monday evening…

That whipsaw wiped out a week of gains across crypto in a single weekend.

Bitcoin slid from $75,900 last week back to around $68,200. Nearly $300 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours - 85% of them longs.

Traders had been leaning heavily bullish after eight straight days of gains. One headline undid all of it.

But this isn't just a crypto story.

Gold and silver erased a combined $2 trillion in market cap in just three hours on Friday. Gold is now down nearly 20% from its January all-time high - approaching technical bear market territory.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 45 basis points in three weeks to 4.40%, putting pressure on everything from metals to equities.

The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March last year. Stocks have fallen four straight weeks.

The traditional safe havens aren't working. Gold is cracking. Bonds are selling off. The dollar is the only thing catching a bid.

And yet - Bitcoin is holding up better than most.

On a monthly basis, BTC is down just 0.2% while the S&P and Nasdaq are each down 4–5%.

Coinbase's John O'Loghlen said Bitcoin has "materially outperformed traditional assets on a risk-adjusted basis" since the war began, thanks to months of earlier deleveraging.

On an M2-adjusted basis, Bitcoin is still in a consolidation range similar to 2024 - retesting its 2021 highs relative to global liquidity.

Historically, each cycle has seen Bitcoin push above prior peaks on this measure.

Long-term holders aren't selling. Institutions are still accumulating. But the geopolitics are calling every shot right now.

Monday's deadline will set the tone for the week.

With gold cracking, bonds selling off, and crypto holding its ground better than most expected - we want to hear from you:

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

People are panicking about a drawn-out Middle East war.

Samson Mow is looking at history.

History says higher.

Samson Mow is the CEO of JAN3, a Bitcoin technology company focused on accelerating hyperbitcoinization.

He's the man who helped architect El Salvador's Bitcoin strategy, served as CSO at Blockstream, ran one of the largest exchanges and mining pools as COO of BTCC, and has a $1 million Bitcoin price target for 2031.

And with the Iran conflict rattling markets this week, he posted 2 tweets that put the entire situation in perspective:

Then he dropped the receipts:

That's the pattern.

Every single major conflict in modern history led to the same outcome: governments printed massive amounts of money to fund the war effort.

And what happens when the money supply explodes?

The value of fiat currencies collapses. Hard assets go up.

Every time.

War doesn't negatively affect Bitcoin's thesis. It accelerates it.

If the Iran conflict escalates, governments will spend.

If they spend, they'll print. If they print, fiat gets debased. And if fiat gets debased, the case for a fixed-supply, decentralized, digital store of value only gets stronger.

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

And right now, the rhyme is deafening. 🔔

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 71.18% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

That's up from 70.41% two weeks ago. Another 0.77% of supply locked up in just 14 days.

The 6-12 month cohort led the charge again - up 0.55% as more coins crossed the long-term holder threshold. That pipeline from short-term to long-term keeps flowing in one direction.

The 1-2 year band was essentially flat. But the 2-3 year and 3-5 year groups both ticked higher.

The deepest bands tell the strongest story. The 5-7 year cohort grew. The 7-10 year group gave back a fraction. And the 10+ year base pushed to 17.29% - yet another all-time high.

Week after week, the pattern repeats. Supply ages. Holders don't flinch. The long-term base expands.

Bottom line: more than 7 out of every 10 Bitcoin haven't moved in over six months. 💎

Bitcoin mining difficulty drops 7.8% as miner exodus accelerates amid AI pivot. Difficulty is now nearly 10% below where it started the year, despite a sharp 14.7% rebound in February after weather-related disruptions subsided.

Crypto Clarity Act may be cleared to move after senators agree on stablecoin yield. One of the major sticking points on the crypto market structure bill may be resolved, at least enough to move toward a Senate hearing to advance the bill.

Fidelity Requests More Clarity From SEC on Tokenized Assets and DeFi. Fidelity Investments is requesting that the SEC provide more up-to-date and clear guidance on tokenized asset trading, crypto exchanges and decentralized platforms.

Strategy CEO Calls Morgan Stanley ETF A “Monster Bitcoin” Bet. The president and CEO of Strategy said Morgan Stanley’s upcoming bitcoin ETF could unlock as much as $160 billion in demand under a modest portfolio allocation scenario.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: An uncollateralised loan that must be borrowed and repaid within a single blockchain transaction 🥳

Flash loans are unique to DeFi and allow users to borrow millions of dollars with zero collateral, as long as the full amount is returned within the same transaction. If the loan isn't repaid, the entire transaction reverts as if it never happened. They're used for arbitrage, collateral swaps, and self-liquidation, but have also been exploited in several major DeFi attacks.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.