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PLUS: Ethereum ETF odds
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GM to all 64,612 of you. Crypto Nutshell #329 swoopin’ past... 🦇 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more riveting than a mathematician decoding enemy messages during World War II... 📜🔐
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤑 Ethereum ETF odds
🏁 We’ve seen nothing yet
💪 Wallet check
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:10am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETHEREUM ETF ODDS 🤑
BREAKING: Coinbase expects 30% to 40% chance of spot ETH ETF approval by month-end
Coinbase believe the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.
In a May 15 report, Coinbase states that the main reason the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, also applies to Ethereum.
That is:
“The correlation between the CME futures product and the spot exchange rates is sufficiently high,”
Coinbase also reference the upcoming US election as one of the reasons that their odds are so ‘high’:
“We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%. As crypto begins to take form as an election issue, it’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial.”
Coinbase also noted that not all Ethereum ETFs need to be approved at the same time.
The SEC has to make a decision on VanEck’s application by May 23rd.
BUT, they can decide on BlackRock and Fidelity’s applications as late as August.
However…
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas doesn’t have as much faith in a May approval.
“Our odds of approval remain the same: slim to none.”
The main reason that Eric believes they’ll be denied in May is due to the lack of engagement from the SEC.
In the lead up to the Bitcoin ETFs there was constant back and forth between the SEC and issuers.
Basically ever analyst right now is expecting the Ethereum ETFs to be denied on May 23rd.
Except Coinbase…
Do they know something that we don’t? 🤔
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WE’VE SEEN NOTHING YET 🏁
The institutional adoption of Bitcoin is set to accelerate.
We’ve seen nothing yet.
That’s the latest prediction from Anthony Scaramucci.
For those not familiar with Scaramucci, he’s a well-known American investor.
He’s the founder of SkyBridge Capital, an investment firm that has over $2 billion under management.
Speaking with CNBC, Scaramucci broke down why we have only just seen the beginning of the institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
We’re about to witness demand accelerate rapidly over the coming quarters.
“We believe we are still in the early stages of Bitcoin’s institutional adoption.”
Scaramucci finished the interview by giving his prediction as to how high Bitcoin could hit before the end of the year.
He estimated the market cap of gold to be around ~$16 trillion dollars.
Bitcoin hitting half of gold’s market cap by the end of the year would not be far-fetched.
“Bitcoin’s potential to reach $8 trillion in market cap is not far-fetched. This increasing institutional interest testifies to Bitcoin’s emerging role as a critical component of modern investment portfolios.”
Bitcoin at an $8 trillion dollar market cap would price each Bitcoin just over $400,000 per coin.
Not too shabby. 😮💨
WALLET CHECK 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the number of addresses with a non-zero balance.
It provides a high level overview of the Bitcoin network’s user base/activity.
Keep in mind though, one wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.
What matters here is the trend of the chart.
Increasing number of addresses: increasing adoption levels 📈
Decreasing number of addresses: indicates users are selling their entire balance or consolidating wallets 📉
Notice how this chart has always been trending upwards?
A clear sign that the Bitcoin Network has expanded every single year.
As of today there are 52,575,685 addresses with a positive balance.
Two weeks ago this metric was at 52,521,810 wallets.
That’s an increase of +53,875 wallets. 😱
With Bitcoin’s recent price movement from $60,000 to ~$67,000, it looks like interest is returning…
Simple takeaway from this data:
Bitcoin adoption continues to grow, and 2024 marks the start of the ‘institutional era’.
15 years into its existence and the network is still expanding every single year.
Bullish. 🐂
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Chainlink surges 30% as DTCC explores blockchain for mutual fund data delivery. DTCC and Chainlink collaborate on a Smart NAV pilot, enabling blockchain innovations in mutual fund services.
Tether mints another $1B — Last time, it helped Bitcoin climb to $73K. Bitcoin flipped its old resistance into support following Tether’s newly minted USDT. Can this be the start of the post-halving bull cycle?
Solana's SOL Could Hit $200 By Month End, Hedge Fund Founder Says. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency is benefitting from multiple catalysts, including bustling meme coin and DeFi activity.
Oklahoma passes bill protecting ‘fundamental bitcoin rights’. Oklahoma passed a bill earlier this week that protects state residents' right to self-custody digital assets.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did infamous ponzi scheme "BitConnect" shut down? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) January 2018 🥳
On January 17, 2018, Bitconnect shut down, and BCC prices crashed by 92%
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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