GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #928 bringin‘ the circus… 🎪🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more trajectory-smart than a mathematician catching the decimal before the capsule leaves the launchpad… 🧮🚀

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin under $63,000 after new U.S. strike on Iran. Trump's China comment adds to uncertainty

Crypto got everything it asked for this week.

Two cold inflation prints. July rate-hike odds collapsed from 31% to single digits.

Bitcoin ripped to $65.5K earlier in the day.

And it's handed the whole lot back…

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's down at $62,850, off 2.8% on the day and now sitting under its 50-day moving average.

The Fed gave. The chips took it straight back.

Because this isn't the war…

The US struck Iran again overnight, hitting five bridges in Hormozgan and a maritime control tower at Chabahar.

Oil didn't budge, holding near $79.

Bitcoin barely registered it, same as it's done for a month.

The damage is coming from semiconductors.

The chip index has shed more than 20% from its peak in three weeks.

Micron's down over 30% from its June record. The Nasdaq-100 has dropped 2% in five days.

TSMC posted record quarterly earnings on Thursday.

Profit up 77%.

It raised its capital spending guidance to as much as $64 billion.

Chip stocks fell anyway.

When good news stops working, that's not a fundamentals problem. It's a valuation one.

Bank of America's latest fund manager survey found 45% now call an AI bubble the single biggest risk facing markets.

Even SpaceX has slipped below its $135 IPO price. (Cast your mind back to June, when we flagged Morningstar's $63 fair value against that listing…)

Bitcoin's caught in the undertow because it's welded to that trade now.

Ten days ago SK Hynix's record listing hauled it to $64K and we said it then: live by the AI trade, die by it.

This is the dying part.

Underneath the noise, though, crypto's own plumbing is improving.

JPMorgan sees "encouraging signs" - Strategy's rebuilt its cash pile to $3 billion, roughly 20 months of dividend cover, and Bitcoin futures pulled in positive institutional flows even while spot ETFs bled.

So the macro finally turned crypto's way.

It just doesn't matter while the AI trade is unwinding. 🚀

AI isn't just changing business—it's creating entirely new income opportunities. The Hustle's guide features 200+ ways to make money with AI, from beginner-friendly gigs to advanced ventures. Each comes with realistic income projections and resource requirements. Join 1.5M professionals getting daily insights on emerging tech and business opportunities.

Get the guide

Not every voice is calling the bottom. Mike Novogratz just laid out exactly what's still missing, and it's worth hearing.

Novogratz is the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, one of the largest crypto financial services firms in the world, and a former Goldman Sachs partner and Fortress principal.

And in his latest interview, he broken down what Bitcoin needs right now.

His framing is simple.

Bitcoin's bull case stands on 2 legs.

Right now, one of them is broken.

The Iran war pushed the cutting cycle back. And in his read, Kevin Warsh isn't cutting in his first 2 meetings unless something dramatic forces his hand.

So the liquidity leg, the one that historically drives every major Bitcoin run, isn't in place yet.

Which leaves us exactly where the chart shows.

That's an honest read of the range. And it lines up with what the bears and the pragmatists have been saying. Ben Cowen's timeline. The sideways grind Fred Krueger charted. Matt Hougan's "waiting on the CLARITY Act" malaise.

But notice what the missing leg actually is. It isn't demand. It isn't adoption. It isn't the thesis breaking.

It's a catalyst that hasn't arrived yet. The CLARITY Act is still moving. Larry Lepard's call is that Warsh cuts and uses AI productivity as the cover. Novogratz himself has a $500k long-term target.

The second leg isn't gone. It's just late. 🦿

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

2.71 million BTC on exchanges. Down from roughly 2.72 million two weeks ago.

A modest decline - and this time it lines up with ETH rather than diverging from it.

The move itself is small, around 6,000 BTC. But the shape mirrors what we just saw in ether: reserves popped to about 2.722 million in early July, then rolled straight back over to 2.7115 million. That early-month bounce got sold off, same as ETH's did.

So the story that split last edition has re-converged. A fortnight ago ETH was squeezing while Bitcoin sat flat. Now both are pointed the same way - down - with ETH draining hard and Bitcoin easing off its recent top. The exchange drain is back on across the board.

Zoom out and Bitcoin's balance has trended lower for the better part of a year, from around 2.9 million last August to 2.71 million now. This fortnight's dip is a small step in that longer march, not a break from it.

Nothing dramatic in the number. But a Bitcoin balance rolling back over - right as ETH hits a fresh low - says the same thing on both charts: less coin on exchanges, supply still tightening. 💪

Morgan Stanley Launches Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Trading on E*Trade. Eligible customers can now trade BTC, ETH, and SOL through linked Zero Hash accounts.

Citadel Securities invests $400 million in Crypto.com, valuing exchange at $20 billion. Crypto.com’s first institutional funding round will support its tokenized-securities and derivatives expansion.

Trump teleprompter operator made $100K betting on Kalshi markets tied to speeches. Investigators allege he used advance knowledge of prepared remarks to profit from mention markets.

MegaETH sunsets Mega Mafia accelerator program, noting ‘most’ of its successful apps left. The program helped teams raise about $80 million, but MegaETH says too little value remained with its chain.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The total value or number of derivative contracts that remain open. 🥳

Open interest tracks outstanding futures or options positions that have not been closed or settled. Rising open interest can signal that more capital and positioning are entering the market.

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.