GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #104 hoppin' between puddles… 🐸🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re positioning for the rest of this cycle.

And in case you missed last week's Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin's at $75,800, down 1.3% from last Friday's close.

Ethereum's at $2,240, down 0.4%.

On Friday the Nasdaq 100 bounced 1.35% after its worst day since March 2020, and Bitcoin went the other way, dipping under $75,000 for the first time since August.

Since October began, Bitcoin has fallen with stocks on their bad days and sat out most of their gains, and the reason has less to do with AI or the election than with who stopped buying.

It matters right now because Bitcoin's sitting almost exactly on what Strategy paid for its coins.

Bitcoin dipped to around $75,600 as Tuesday's midterm results came in, with Democrats taking both houses of Congress, then climbed to about $80,600 on Wednesday.

Most of that jump came from traders who'd bet on a fall rushing to buy back, with $378 million of those bets wiped out in a single hour.

Thursday took it all back.

The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% and the main index of US chip stocks 12%, on fears a Democratic Congress slows the data centers behind the AI boom, and Bitcoin finished about 5% lower with more than $1 billion of leveraged bets liquidated.

Friday's jobs report then beat forecasts by a mile, chip stocks bounced, and Bitcoin still closed the US session 0.4% lower.

We checked every day since August where the Nasdaq 100 moved 1% or more, and measured Bitcoin from one 4pm New York close to the next.

Between August 7 and September 30, the Nasdaq had six of those up days and Bitcoin rose on five of them, gaining 2.6% a day against the Nasdaq's 1.6%.

On the four big down days, it fell less than stocks did.

From October 1, the Nasdaq's had eight days down 1% or more and Bitcoin fell on all eight, by 2.4% a time.

On the six big up days, Bitcoin rose on only three, and averaged 0.2% against the Nasdaq's 1.2%.

Fourteen days is a small sample, and one of those down days carries the Binance hack, but take it out and Bitcoin still fell on seven out of seven.

The last time Bitcoin rose on a day the Nasdaq fell 1% or more was August 18.

Over the whole stretch, Bitcoin's down 9.3% since October 1, a little less than the Nasdaq's 11.2%, so it isn't falling apart by itself.

From August 7 to September 30, though, the Nasdaq rose just 3.5% and Bitcoin rose almost 30%, because it had buyers of its own.

Lately it's tracked the Nasdaq down with none of that extra lift on the way up, so it needs stocks to recover first, and even then it's been getting a fraction of the move.

Chip stocks had rough days in that stretch too, including a 5.9% drop on September 14, so the AI trade alone can't explain the switch.

What changed is who was buying Bitcoin on the good days, and that list got a lot shorter in October…