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GM to all 71,095 of you. Crypto Nutshell #515 truckin’ on… 🚛🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more surprising than running across America and finding life's box of chocolates... 🏃‍♂️🍫

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 Pain

• 🐋 Big boys are buying

• 🤔 Who is selling?

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

PAIN 🏦 

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs see major outflows following Bitcoin’s dip

There it is…

Following Bitcoin’s recent dip, the Bitcoin ETFs saw combined outflows of $671.9 million.

Surprisingly, the only fund that saw inflows yesterday was WisdomTree with $2 million. (That’s actually a rare inflow day for them coming at the most unexpected time)

Here’s yesterday’s paper hand leaderboard:

1. Fidelity FBTC: -$208.5 million 🥇 

2. Grayscale BTC: -$188.6 million 🥈 

3. Ark Invest ARKB: -$108.4 million 🥉 

BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Valkyrie all had neutral days.

It’s honestly impressive that BlackRock didn’t see any outflows considering the size of their fund. (Is someone putting in huge counter buys behind the scenes?)

But we’ve also got some good news for you today…

The SEC just approved combo ETFs that hold both Bitcoin and Ethereum!

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explains that these ETFs are market cap weighted, meaning that they’ll hold ~80/20 BTC/ETH.

As it stands, the only two issuers that have been given the green light on BTC + ETH ETFs are Hashdex and Franklin Templeton.

And we’ll likely see these products launch in January 2025.

Notably BlackRock hasn’t applied for one of these ETFs…

But now that these products have been approved, we may see them hop on the trend as Nate Geraci explains:

2024 has been a monumental year for Bitcoin and crypto.

We’ve gone from exactly zero crypto ETFs…

To having spot Bitcoin, spot Ethereum and combination ETFs…

And likely many more in the near future.

That’s a huge step forward.

The cherry on top?

As Nate explains in the Tweet above, this was all done without a crypto-friendly SEC.

Imagine what the most pro-crypto government in history can do.

Although right now it looks like we’re going through some short-term pain…

Everything is lining up for 2025 to be an amazing year for Bitcoin & crypto.

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BIG BOYS ARE BUYING 🐋

As we said, today the Bitcoin ETFs saw combined outflows of $671.9 million.

But that’s just today.

If you zoom out, it’s a much different picture.

That’s the latest out from Michael Saylor.

Right now, the market is seeing a lot of pain.

But there’s an old investing adage for times like these:

Today, that’s exactly what Michael Saylor reminded everyone to do.

Saylor posted the previous 15 days of flows for the Bitcoin ETFs:

Although we saw outflows of -$671.9 million today, over the previous 14 days, we saw inflows of +$6.72 billion.

When you zoom out, the picture is clear:

Big boys are buying. 

As a reminder, the fact we’ve seen such a huge year for the Bitcoin ETFs is completely out of the ordinary.

Typically, ETFs start off slowly in their first year and gradually gain momentum over time.

Here’s what typical ETF growth looks like:

Although today is painful, it will pass.

The best is most definitely yet to come. 🌅

WHO IS SELLING? 🤔

When sell offs like this happen, we’re always asked:

Who is selling their Bitcoin right now?

Well, similar to the last sell-off we saw, it’s the long-term holders again…

The chart below shows the volume of profit being realized by long-term holders (LTH).

(Side note: Long-term holders refer to those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days)

And as you can see, there’s currently a substantial amount of profits being taken by the LTH cohort.

In fact, it’s so large that it’s recently peaked at a new all-time high of $2.1 billion a day. 🤯 

But…

Long-term holders is quite a broad category…

So let’s dive a little deeper and find out who is really selling.

The chart below splits the long-term holder cohort into smaller subsets.

The dark yellow area refers to Bitcoin that has been held for between 6 and 12 months.

Whilst the bluer areas refer to Bitcoin that has been held for more than 3 years.

Here’s the full profit taking breakdown since the start of November 2024:

• 6m - 12m Realized Profit: $27.3 billion

• 1y - 2y Realized Profit: $12.7 billion

• 2y - 3y Realized Profit: $8.1 billion

• 3y - 5y Realized Profit: $10.1 billion

• 5y+ Realized Profit: $12.6 billion

Coins aged between 6 and 12 months have dominated sell-side pressure, accounting for 38.5% of the total.

Whilst coins aged 3 years or more have remained relatively steady.

Which means “older” long-term holders are still holding out for higher prices.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

El Salvador agrees to scale back Bitcoin policies for $1.4 billion IMF loan. El Salvador's economic strategy pivots toward IMF-compliant Bitcoin policies as it marks a historic financial deal.

BlackRock sparks Bitcoin 21M debate, saying ‘no guarantee’ it won’t change. One Bitcoin developer argues that any change to Bitcoin’s fixed supply, while theoretically possible, wouldn’t be considered “Bitcoin” anymore.

U.S. Listed Spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Verge of Surpassing Gold ETFs. U.S. spot-listed bitcoin ETFs currently have an AUM of $120 billion compared to gold's $125 billion.

Bitcoin miners MARA, Hut 8 continue to acquire more BTC for their reserves. MARA, the largest publicly-listed miner in the U.S., acquired 15,574 BTC for about $1.53 billion.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

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• Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.