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BREAKING: Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, as expected

Last Friday, 84% of you said the Fed would hold rates on Wednesday but keep a December hike on the table, and that's how it played out.

Policymakers left the benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, wanted to raise it right away.

Only 12% of you expected a hike, and 4% thought the Fed would signal it's finished for the year.

The Fed's statement also said the economy is now expanding at a "strong pace", up from solid in September, and that inflation remains elevated.

Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting at 86%, up from 78% the day before, by CME FedWatch's count.

The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, so the hold works out to a pause between hikes, and markets have already priced most of the next one.

Bitcoin barely moved and was at about $81,100 after the decision, under the 50-day average near $81,800 that had capped it earlier in the day.

Overnight it slid to around $80,000 when Samsung's chip profit missed forecasts and the tech selloff in Asia spread to crypto.

The 10-year yield closed at about 5.05%, back above 5% a week after dipping under it for the first time in a month.

Oil's still feeding the inflation the Fed is fighting, with US crude over $100 after a report that the US is preparing to restart attacks on Iran after next Tuesday's midterms.

December's hike isn't locked in, though…

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said more information will help decide the right policy, wording CoinDesk took as room to stay on hold if the data softens.

October's jobs report lands on November 6 and its inflation data on November 10, both before the Fed meets again.

Bitcoin pays no interest, so while a Treasury pays about 5% for almost no risk, every hike raises the bar it has to clear to pull that money in… 🚀

Solana’s price collapsed. Its network didn’t.

While the chart looks ugly, the fundamentals tell a different story: dormant wallets are waking up, app revenue is climbing, stablecoin supply has hit $15B, and institutional ETF inflows remain strong. Lower inflation and the Firedancer upgrade are next.

Stop guessing the bottom. Our free Solana guide lays out the full thesis, key metrics and risks. Enter your email and it’s yours.

Get the Free Solana Guide

Matt Hougan reckons the year that dragged Bitcoin through a bear market was a good one for it, and he's attached a bigger number to that view.

Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management and one of the sharpest voices on crypto ETFs and institutional adoption.

Here's what he posted:

Bitwise now sees Bitcoin at $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million in last year's report, which works out to 34.3% a year.

It builds the target by sizing the markets Bitcoin competes in and giving it a slice of each.

The base case hands Bitcoin 25% of the global store-of-value market (gold, mostly) and 1% of institutional money.

Those slices haven't changed, so the raise comes from bigger markets, with the 2036 store-of-value estimate up from $91 trillion to $110 trillion.

Bitcoin's own case rests on the drawdown, about 53% from the $126,080 peak against 86%, 84% and 77% in the last three cycles.

In a follow-up post Hougan summed up the year as "It didn't feel good, but it was actually pretty strong."

He does concede most of the new hard-asset money went to gold, and ETF buying slowed.

That matters, since the store-of-value slice is about 90% of the $1.6 million by our count, and gold's the one winning it right now…

Even the bear case of $130,686 is only about 4% above the current record.

None of this tells you where Bitcoin trades next month (it's at $81,200, down about 4% on the week).

If you're sizing a position, the more useful figure is volatility, which Bitwise now expects to average 27.8% a year, down from 32.9% last time.

It felt like a bad year, but Bitcoin lost less in it than in any of the last three bears 🔭

Time for a check in on Ethereum's supply side dynamics.

To do that we'll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.

Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain's security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.

44.17 million ETH is now locked in staking, down from 44.28 million two weeks ago.

That's the first down fortnight in this run, after gains of 740,000, 550,000, 482,000, 525,000 and 421,000 ETH.

About 105,000 ETH came out of staking on net, roughly 7,500 ETH a day.

That's less than a twentieth of the 2.72 million ETH those five fortnights added.

The run of gains has broken, though almost all the ETH it locked up is still staked. 🔒️

More Americans Have Tried Crypto, But Few Are Sticking With It: Survey. Ipsos found 22% of US adults have ever owned or used crypto, up from 18% last year, but past-year use held flat at 13%.

Bitcoin treasury Datavault AI plunges 50% after firm says it can’t access its BTC. Its Bitcoin has been stuck on the Biconomy exchange since a June withdrawal request, and a restatement cuts its end-2025 assets by $92.2 million.

Wall Street’s Fast Money Fled Bitcoin ETFs, Sovereign Funds Stepped In. Galaxy Research says nine hedge funds and banks cut 68,000 BTC of ETF exposure as the profit on the cash-and-carry trade shrank.

Strategy shareholders approve daily dividends for four preferred stocks. Preliminary results show 99.3% in favor, with daily STRC payments starting November 2 and the other three following in January.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: One billionth of an ETH (0.000000001) 🥳

Gwei is short for gigawei, and a wei is ETH's smallest unit at one quintillionth of an ETH. Quoting fees in gwei keeps the numbers readable, so a fee shows as 2 gwei rather than 0.000000002 ETH.

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