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- 🥜 Crypto Expert: The perfect storm ⛈️
🥜 Crypto Expert: The perfect storm ⛈️
PLUS: BlackRock vs SEC
GM to all 18,621 of you. Crypto Nutshell #142 flutterin’ by. 🦋 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's as heart-warming as a friendship between a boy and his alien robot... 🤖👦
🧑⚖️ BlackRock vs SEC
🧨 How high will Bitcoin go?
✊ The tightness of the Bitcoin supply
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:40am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
BLACKROCK VS SEC 🧑⚖️
Breaking: BlackRock argues SEC has no grounds to treat crypto futures and spot ETFs differently
The SEC approving crypto-futures ETFs whilst denying spot ETFs has always baffled everyone. 😕
In BlackRock’s application for a spot Ethereum ETF, they argued that the SEC has no reason to treat spot and futures based ETFs differently.
In its application, BlackRock questions the SEC’s treatment of spot crypto ETFs. BlackRock believes that the SEC has continually denied these ETFs on incorrect regulatory distinctions between futures and spot ETFs.
“Given that the Commission has approved ETFs that offer exposure to ETH futures, which themselves are priced based on the underlying spot ETH market, the Sponsor believes that the Commission must also approve ETPs that offer exposure to spot ETH.”
BlackRock is seriously confident that their ETH ETF should be approved. Checkout this summary from the application:
“In summary, both the Exchange and the Sponsor believe that this proposal and the included analysis are sufficient to establish that the CME ETH Futures market represents a regulated market of significant size as it relates both to the CME ETH Futures market and to the spot ETH market and that this proposal should be approved.“
Both the Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF are a matter of when not if.
TOGETHER WITH VINCENT SPOTLIGHT 🔦
If you’re into crypto, there’s a good chance you want to be wealthy.
Not BMW wealthy, but Bugatti wealthy. 🏎️
Unfortunately, this isn’t the 70’s anymore. Investing in real-estate, bonds or index funds just won’t cut it anymore…
That’s where alternative assets come in.
Alternative assets can be anything from crypto to fine art, trading cards, wine or vintage cars. Investments that have the potential for massive returns.
The problem? There’s so many to keep up with…
That’s where VINCENT SPOTLIGHT comes in:
Breaks down the top opportunities in the alternative asset space ✅
Behind the scenes look into the highest alternative asset sales 🤑
Delivered straight to your inbox in a weekly in 4 min read 📨
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Subscribe now by slamming that big subscribe button below, the alternative asset market awaits… 💰
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HOW HIGH WILL BITCOIN GO?🧨
With the spot Bitcoin ETF closer than ever before, it leaves one question...
How high will Bitcoin go on approval? 🤔
Lucky for us, Charles Yu, a research associate at Galaxy Digital, answered this in his latest research report.
First off, there’s 3 channels that will bring capital to a spot Bitcoin ETF:
Broker Dealers - $27 trillion
Banks - $11 trillion
RIAs - $9 trillion
These 3 channels combined, are valued at $48.3 trillion. Charles Yu then makes 2 assumptions:
Bitcoin will be adopted by 10% of total available assets in each channel
The average allocation will be 1%
Combining these assumptions, this leads to the following inflows to a Bitcoin ETF:
Year 1: $14.4 billion
Year 2: $26.5 billion
Year 3: $38.6 billion
But what does that mean for price? Here's the month-by-month prediction of how inflows will impact price:
Galaxy Digital predicts a +74.1% increase in Bitcoin's price in the first year of the ETF.
Although no one would complain at a +74.1% return in 12 months, even Galaxy Digital themselves admits this is conservative.
“We believe our assumptions on access, exposure and allocation are conservative, so inflows could also be higher than expected.”
Regardless of how much capital the ETF will bring, one thing is certain…
It will be a significant bump in demand.
At the same time as supply is cut in half…
A perfect storm… ⛈
THE TIGHTNESS OF BITCOIN ✊
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Activity-to-Vaulting Ratio (A2VR). This metric is part of Glassnode’s Cointime Economics framework.
It’s provides a simpler view of the divergence between short and long-term holders we discussed two days ago.
It's calculated by taking the ratio between Liveliness and Vaultedness. In other words, we are comparing the amount of active coins to dormant coins.
Here’s how to read the chart:
Uptrends: Investors with old coins are spending, steeper trends indicate aggressive selling
Downtrends: Investors prefer to hold their coins, steeper trends indicate an acceleration of this behaviour
This metric has been on a downtrend since June 2021, with the gradient steepening after June 2022.
Right now it’s at lows similar to that of early 2019 and late 2020. Interestingly these lows both preceded significant market uptrends…
The most fascinating take away from this metric is that the hype of the 2021-2022 cycle has effectively been ‘reset’.
Right now the A2VR is exactly where it was before Bitcoin rallied to it’s all time-high…
The Bitcoin supply is extremely ‘tight’ heading into the halving.
And with the increase in demand from the ETFs (discussed above), this cycle is going to be insane… 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
When was the popular meme token Dogecoin released?
A) Binance
B) Coinbase
C) Bitcoinmarket
D) Mt.Gox
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) Bitcoinmarket 🥳
On March 17, 2010 Bitcoinmarket, the first cryptocurrency exchange went live
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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