🄜 Rate Cuts

PLUS: Is Ethereum dead?

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Today’s edition is brought to you by Origin Protocol.

Origin has just launched the first supercharged Liquid Staking Token: Super OETH. Start earning over 200% more yield than traditional LSTs with Super OETH today!

GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #440 feelin’ a-okay… šŸ‘ŒšŸ„œ

We're the crypto newsletter that's more exhilarating than Iron Man's first flight in his suit... šŸ¤–šŸš€

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ¦ Rate cuts are here

  • 🧠 Don’t count out Ethereum

  • 😱 Basically zero…

  • šŸ’° And more…

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MARKET WATCH āš–ļø

market data

Prices as at 3:50am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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RATE CUTS ARE HERE šŸ¦

BREAKING: Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, Bitcoin trades higher

Bitcoin

The Fed did what we expected:

It cut interest rates by 0.50%

This is the first time in 4 years that the Fed has lowered interest rates.

Here’s what the Fed had to say:

"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated."

Fed Statement

Continuing on:

"The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance."

Fed Statement

But here’s the thing…

Rate cuts of this magnitude are not common. (usually interest rates are adjusted by 0.25% at a time)

In fact this is only the third time in recent history that the Fed has started rate cuts with a 0.50% cut.

The previous two times (2007 & 2001), the economy crashed…

Is this time different?

Yes, yes it is.

Both 2007 & 2001 were major crises. However, the Fed continues to say that the economy is strong and growing at a solid pace. (Is it really though?)

But it is a little weird that they cut rates by 0.5%, as if we were in a crisis…

Checkout this excellent X thread from The Kobeissi Letter for a deeper dive into this decision.

Regardless, the price of Bitcoin reacted positively to the news.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently at $62,099 and up 2.86% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price

On a more funny note…

105 out of 114 (92%) economists predicted a 0.25% rate cut.

Whereas 52% of the voters on Polymarket got it right.

JL tweet

Professional economists getting out performed by random punters on Polymarket…

What a world we live in.

Origin Protocol
Origin Protocol

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  3. Sit back while the protocol earns additional yield from Layer 2 incentives šŸ¦

  4. Receive staking rewards daily, with no gas fees required šŸ¤‘

Super OETH will earn over 200% more yield than traditional LSTs thanks to Layer 2 incentives on Base.

Now isn’t that crazy…

But it gets even better.

Super OETH users retain full control over their capital while earning a higher yield compared to a traditional LST.

And thanks to a 1:1 ETH peg users can easily swap in and out as they please.

So what are you waiting for?

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DON’T COUNT OUT ETHEREUM 🧠

It’s easy to hate on Ethereum right now.

The Ethereum / Bitcoin ratio just hit its lowest level in 3 years.

But don’t count Ethereum out just yet.

That’s the latest message out from Matt Hougan.

Matt Hougan

Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the 5th largest Bitcoin ETF issuer.

This week Matt broke down why he’s betting on an Ethereum come back:

ā€œIt’s cool to hate Ethereum right now. I bet this ends up looking silly.ā€

Matt Hougan

Why has Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin so much in 2024?

Matt narrows it down to 3 factors:

  1. Election Risk - Bitcoin has largely passed regulatory scrutiny. Ethereum has not. If Harris wins in November and continues the Biden administrations skeptical posture towards crypto, Ethereum could be in trouble.

  2. Rising Competition - Ethereum faces rising competition from newer blockchains that can offer faster & cheaper transactions. For example - Solana.

  3. Mixed ETF results - Although the launch of the Ethereum ETFs were undoubtedly successful, they were not successful on the scale the Bitcoin ETFs were.

However, it’s not all bad.

Ethereum also has major positives:

  1. Stablecoins - Arguably crypto’s best use case, over 50% of all stablecoins are issued on Ethereum.

  2. DeFi - Over 60% of all decentralised finance happens on Ethereum.

  3. Polymarket - One of the biggest applications to come out of crypto settles on Ethereum.

Ethereum has the most active developers, the most active users & its market cap is 5x bigger than its closest competitor.

ā€œFollow the developersā€

Cathie Wood - CEO of ARK Invest

Although Ethereum does face some challenges, Matt’s message is clear:

Don’t count out Ethereum just yet.

ā€œI suspect the market may reevaluate Ethereum as we get closer to the November elections and any regulatory clarity that emerges. For now, it looks like a potential contrarian bet through the end of the year.ā€

Matt Hougan
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BASICALLY ZERO… 😱

Continuing on with the Ethereum talk…

Last cycle it wasn’t unheard of to pay $200 in gas fees for high priority transactions.

These extremely high transaction fees were one of the main criticism’s people had against Ethereum.

And rightfully so…

Absolutely no one wants to spend over $200 in transaction fees. 😔 

But things have changed…

Layer 2 networks have significantly increased Ethereum’s usability.

Speaking at Token 2049, Vitalik Buterin (Founder of Ethereum) mentioned how cheap transactions have become:

ā€œFrom being somewhere between $10 and $0.50 to being under $0.01, basically zero.ā€

Vitalik Buterin

And here’s the chart backing this claim up.

As you can see, transactions fees have essentially gone to zero.

L2 fees

Ethereum Layer 2’s are a game changer when it comes to network scalability.

Perhaps going a bit under the radar, Ethereum’s transaction confirmation time has also seen significant improvements.

Here’s what Vitalik had to say:

ā€œOne of the things that the merge did is it also cut in half the average waiting time until the next block… These days I quietly have my transactions confirmed in 5 to 15 seconds.ā€

Vitalik Buterin

These changes, combined with lower fees, have made the Ethereum network WAY more user-friendly.

And as a result, the number of transactions on Layer 2 networks has exploded. šŸš€

L2 transactions

Transaction count of top 3 Layer 2 Networks: šŸ”µ Base, 🟢 Arbitrum, šŸ”“ OP

As we broke down in the previous section:

Don’t count out Ethereum just yet.

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Singapore's DBS Bank to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading. The bank reported a strong increase in crypto trading volumes on its digital exchange, DDEx.

US lawmaker accuses SEC of ā€˜enforcement abuse’ against crypto firms. Democratic and Republican lawmakers sparred at a hearing addressing claims of the SEC’s ā€˜politicized approach to digital assets.’

Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points, Bitcoin Briefly Hits $61K Before Selloff. Market participants were uncertain about the size of the rate cut prior to the Fed meeting, laying the groundwork for market volatility.

BlackRock's new bitcoin paper outlines the cryptocurrency's qualities as 'unique' hedge against global risks. Bitcoin has outperformed all other major asset classes in seven of the last 10 years, according to BlackRock's whitepaper.

WHAT WE’RE READING šŸ“š

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MEME CORNER šŸ˜‚

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Trivia Answer: C) 9,720 🄳

Tesla still holds 9,720 Bitcoin.

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