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🥜 Realistic 2025 Prediction
PLUS: SEC goes one step further
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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #680 sneakin’ in… 🥷🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more mind-bending than a detective solving a crime that hasn't happened yet... 🔮🚓
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The pro-crypto SEC
🎯 Realistic 2025 Bitcoin prediction
🤯 Are HODLers selling?
💰 And more…
Prices as at 4:45am ET
THE PRO-CRYPTO SEC 🏦
BREAKING: SEC declares liquid staking is outside of securities laws in latest guidance following 'Project Crypto' initiative
In a landmark shift, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has declared that certain liquid staking activities do not fall under securities laws.
That might sound boring.
But it’s a big deal…
Because this is the clearest signal yet that the SEC - under Chairman Paul Atkins - is entering its pro-crypto era.
Here’s what just happened:
The SEC released new guidance confirming that certain liquid staking activities don’t fall under securities laws.
Specifically: if users stake through protocols like Lido or Jito, and receive receipt tokens like stETH or mSOL, it doesn’t count as a securities transaction - as long as there’s no investment contract involved.
That’s huge.
Because it officially clears the path for major players like Lido, Marinade, Rocket Pool, and others in the $67B liquid staking sector to operate without regulatory fear.
Even bigger?
This could be the final unlock for Ethereum ETF staking.
The SEC’s previous concerns around ETH staking liquidity may now be solved - since liquid staking tokens let ETF issuers manage exposure without needing to unstake.
And this isn’t just a one-off.
It’s part of a broader transformation.
Chairman Atkins recently launched Project Crypto - a sweeping overhaul aimed at modernising the SEC’s stance on custody, trading, staking, and ETFs.
As CoinDesk put it:
“The new SEC staff statement signals how the agency is thinking about the issue and suggests that any crypto industry participant who follows the guidance will not be sued by the regulator.”
Translation?
This changes everything.
With liquid staking now officially outside securities laws…
Ethereum staking ETFs could be just around the corner. 🔓
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T market
The wealthiest companies tend to target the biggest markets. For example, NVIDIA skyrocketed nearly 200% higher in the last year with the $214B AI market’s tailwind.
That’s why investors are so excited about Pacaso.
Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso brings co-ownership to a $1.3 trillion real estate market. And by handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, they’ve made $110M+ in gross profit to date. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
No wonder the same VCs behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso. And for just $2.90/share, you can join them as an early-stage Pacaso investor today.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
REALISTIC 2025 BITOIN PREDICTION 🎯
Do you remember the most accurate Bitcoin pricing model?
It’s the Bitcoin Power Law Model - created by astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi and popularized by mathematician Fred Krueger.
It maps Bitcoin’s long-term growth better than any other model, showing that BTC follows a curved path upward on a log chart… not a straight line.
And every cycle, Bitcoin overshoots that curve at the peak.
So what does it say for the next 6 months?
Well Fred just laid out the 3 possible scenarios for the 2025 top…
So… where could we see Bitcoin realistically land in 2025?
1. Conservative Case
Would see a 0.4 deviation from the power law trend.
Result? $292,000 Bitcoin peak.
2. Base Case
Would see a 0.6 deviation (same as 2021 cycle).
Result? $463,000 Bitcoin peak.
3. Ultra Bull Case
Would see a 0.8 deviation from the curve
Result? $735,000 Bitcoin peak.
All 3 are statistically possible.
All 3 are based on how Bitcoin has already behaved in prior bull runs.
So no wild guesses here. It’s just data and trendlines.
The next 6 months could be historic.
And if Fred's right again…
We're nowhere near the top. 🧨
ARE HODLERS SELLING? 🤯
Let’s check in on one of our favourite metrics: Bitcoin’s supply last active 1+ years ago.
It’s a simple but powerful signal - tracking how much BTC has remained untouched as a percentage of total circulating supply.
Here’s the logic:
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Here’s the latest supply breakdown vs. two weeks ago:
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 61.40% (down from 61.61%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 51.01% (down from 51.39%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 44.00% (down from 44.29%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.05% (down from 30.08%)
That means over 61% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved in a year.
But every long-term cohort is down slightly - a clear sign that some HODLers are taking profits.
And with Bitcoin still hovering just ~7% below its all-time high, that’s not surprising.
Still… the big picture hasn’t changed:
Nearly two-thirds of the entire supply remains untouched.
In a market approaching price discovery, that kind of conviction is rare - and powerful. 💎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Semler Scientific's 'slow money' bitcoin buying strategy should offset diagnostic headwinds, Benchmark says. On the earnings call, Joe Burnett said Semler is avoiding "fast money" tactics like issuing stock quickly for bitcoin buys.
Chainlink launches real-time US equities data stream on 37 blockchains. Chainlink's innovation supports advanced financial products and bridges traditional and blockchain markets.
Brazil's lower house to hold hearing on creating national Bitcoin reserve. Brazil has set an Aug. 20 hearing to debate a bill that proposes to allocate up to 5% of National Treasury funds to a cryptocurrency reserve.
Bitcoin Price (BTC) News: Lower on Tuesday. A stalwart in showing strong economic activity, the ISM Services PMI has moved notably slower over the past three months.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did the first Bitcoin halving take place? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: 2012 🥳
The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, cutting the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC — and kicking off a legendary bull run. 📈🔥
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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