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- 🥜 Realistic Bitcoin Price Prediction
🥜 Realistic Bitcoin Price Prediction
PLUS: Bitcoin catching gold
GM to all 45,427 of you. Crypto Nutshell #239 slidin’ past. 🐌 🥜
We’re the Crypto Newsletter that's more exhilarating than embarking on a quest to find a legendary artifact... 🏹🗺️
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏃♂️ Bitcoin catching up to gold
🤑 $170,000 sooner than you think
📈 Stablecoins are back
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:45am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
BITCOIN CATCHING UP TO GOLD 🏃♂️
BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs reach $37 Billion in assets, roughly one-third of gold ETF assets
The Bitcoin ETFs currently have $37 billion in assets under management. (25 days of trading)
Comparatively, Gold ETFs have $93 billion in assets under management. (20 years of trading)
As it stands, the Bitcoin ETFs represent ~39.8% of the Gold ETFs.
To reach this level within 25 days is unheard of.
BUT, there’s one important detail you need to consider with this stat.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explains:
“Kinda.. numbers right but GBTC converted w big boy assets so not quite as impressive. But there's been $4b-ish in net net flows + rally = on pace to pass gold much sooner that I estimated. Price of bitcoin is HUGE variable here tho. Moon = quicker, Rekt = take much longer.”
As Grayscale converted their Bitcoin trust to an ETF, they launched with ~600,000 Bitcoin in assets.
After a large amount of outflows, Grayscale’s total assets are currently worth ~$23.76 billion.
That’s 64.22% of that $37 billion number we mentioned earlier.
Here’s another way to visualise what’s going on with the Bitcoin vs Gold ETFs.
That gap is widening…
The important point to note here is that the Bitcoin ETFs are on track to overtake the Gold ETFs very quickly.
Especially if Bitcoin experiences more explosive price action… 😎
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$170,000 SOONER THAN YOU THINK 🤑
Anthony Scaramucci is doubling down on his “conservative” Bitcoin price prediction.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, Scaramucci explained why he believes Bitcoin will hit at least $170,000 this cycle.
For those not familiar with Scaramucci, he’s a well-known American investor.
He’s the founder of SkyBridge Capital, an investment firm with over $2 billion under management.
This is why Scaramucci believes Bitcoin will reach $170,000 this cycle:
“There’s a technical analysis you can do over the past 14 years. The price at the time of the halving, if you multiply that by four, that’s typically where Bitcoin has run to in that cycle.”
Scaramucci used a ~$45,000 Bitcoin price (at the time of the halving) for this prediction.
But he now believes it to be too “conservative”.
Why?
Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamic is ridiculous right now.
(add the halving in and it gets even more insane)
“The network is only producing 900 coins a day. And you’ve got 12 times the demand of that right now. Which is why you’re seeing a price squeeze to the upside”
Now that Bitcoin has this “regulatory ETF wrapper” around it, price predictions like these aren’t impossible.
Take Nvidia as an example.
Over the last 18 months, Nvidia stock has increased by ~348.18% 😱
Citing his 36 years of experience on Wall Street, Scaramucci ends with:
“Wall Street sells product… You have armies of people now that are putting these products into peoples portfolios”
If $170,000 is a conservative prediction…
This cycle is going to get nuts. 😎
STABLECOINS ARE BACK 📈
Today we’ll be taking a look at the stablecoin market.
Stablecoin’s play an important role in the wider crypto market. They are often used on centralized and decentralized exchanges to purchase other digital assets.
By taking a look at the stablecoin market, we can gauge the demand for digital assets.
The chart below tracks the aggregate change in the total stablecoin market cap.
🟢 Increased stablecoin supply: increased demand and capital inflows into the digital asset space 🐂
🔴 Contractions in stablecoin supply: risk-off environments and net capital outflows from digital assets 🐻
When we checked in on this metric two weeks ago, the stablecoin market cap was ~$130 billion.
Today the aggregate stablecoin market cap is ~$132 billion. 📈
Although that may not seem like much of increase, it’s important to take a look at the overall trend.
This metric has only been increasing since October 2023. Liquidity is back.
Let’s also take a quick look at the stablecoin supply dominance:
🟩 USDT: 73.63%
🟦 USDC: 21.28%
🟪 DAI: 4.05%
USDT is clearly the stablecoin choice for most.
Accounting for 73.63% of the entire stablecoin market cap.
Growth is the stablecoin supply is a clear bullish signal. 🐂
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Erik Voorhees advises Apple to tap into Bitcoin to make a billion dollars instantly. Top crypto voices urge Apple to embrace Bitcoin, suggesting a trillion-dollar opportunity for the iPhone maker.
Big banks are nudging the SEC for a slice of sweet Bitcoin ETF action. A banking trade group coalition has sent a letter to the SEC requesting a change to definitions regarding crypto custody.
Bitcoin ETF issuer VanEck to pay $1.75M to SEC over social sentiment ETF. VanEck was charged with failing to disclose the role of a social media influencer for its Social Sentiment ETF BUZZ.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What percentage of Bitcoin has been held for 1+ years? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) 70% 🥳
According to Glassnode’s data, ~70% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has not moved in the last year.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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