⭐ Red September

PLUS: Where are we in the cycle?

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GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #44 piecin’ it together… 🧩🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 3 sections:

  • 🔮 What’s coming? - Macro Outlook

  • ⏰ Market Indicators: time to buy or sell?

  • 🚀 Portfolio Update & Changes

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last weeks Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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What Happens Next? Red September🩸 

Everyone’s panicking about Bitcoin rolling over.

Just 2 weeks ago it printed a new all-time high at $124,000. Now it’s slid back under $110,000.

But the real story isn’t Bitcoin’s pullback.

For the first time this cycle, as BTC sold off… ETH and alts held firm. A few even pushed higher.

That’s the first flicker of pre-altseason - the rotation signal every cycle eventually delivers.

The problem?

We’re marching straight into September - historically crypto’s bloodiest month. 

In every post-halving year (2013, 2017, 2021), September triggered violent corrections: 20%, 30%, sometimes 40% gone in days.

So what wins out this time? The first signs of altseason, or the September curse? 

Let’s dig in. 👇

1. Why September Is Crypto’s Danger Zone

Pull up Bitcoin’s history and one pattern screams out: September is always red.

  • It’s the only month with negative average AND median returns.

  • In 2013, BTC dropped 15% in under two weeks.

  • In 2017, BTC collapsed 40% in 13 days (alts were cut in half).

  • In 2021, BTC slid 25% in two weeks, with alts down 30–40%.

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This isn’t just random. September lines up with:

  • Seasonality → equities also suffer their worst month, draining liquidity system-wide.

  • Portfolio rebalancing → institutions take profits after summer rallies.

  • Macro catalysts → Fed meetings, inflation prints, and policy shifts often hit in September.

  • Psychology → summer euphoria peaks, leverage piles in, then fear cascades when cracks appear.

It’s a brutal combo: thin liquidity, hot positioning, and Fed uncertainty.

Translation: September corrections aren’t a bug. They’re a feature of every bull cycle.

2. The First Signs of Pre-Altseason

And yet… this September is already showing something new.

  • BTC sold off hard ($124K → $110K).

  • ETH hit a fresh all-time high near $4,900.

  • Alts like BNB, Solana, and Tron even pushed higher.

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