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- 🥜 Research Report: Bitcoin to $200k, ETH to $22k
🥜 Research Report: Bitcoin to $200k, ETH to $22k
PLUS: Recent Price Action
GM to all 24,538 of you. Crypto Nutshell #167 settin’ sail. 🏴☠️ 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's less tumultuous than a team of superheroes battling against supervillains and their own egos... 🦸♂️🦹♀️
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
👮♀️ Crypto’s only use case is criminal activity?
😳 Research Report: Bitcoin to $200k, ETH to $22k
🤑 Here comes the money
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 7:15am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
CRYPTO’S ONLY USE CASE IS CRIMINAL ACTIVITY? 👮♀️
Breaking: ‘I’d close it down’: Jamie Dimon endorses crypto ban in Senate hearing
JPMorgan has recently made moves into the blockchain space.
However, CEO Jamie Dimon, made statements yesterday that the whole industry should be shut down. (that makes sense?)😱
On Wednesday, CEOs from the worlds top banks gathered to discuss regulation in the banking industry.
Senator Elizabeth Warren shifted the conversation towards crypto with this statement:
“Today’s terrorists have a new way to get around the Bank Secrecy Act: cryptocurrency… Last year an estimated $20 billion in illicit crypto transactions funded every kind of dangerous criminal. North Korea has funded at least half its missile program, including nuclear weapons, using the proceeds of crypto crime.”
When asked why criminals are drawn to crypto, Jamie Dimon had this to say:
“I’ve always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin etc… You pointed out the only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers, anti money laundering, tax avoidance, and that is a use case because it is somewhat anonymous, not fully, and because you can move money instantaneously… If I was the government, I’d close it down.”
This statement from Dimon is a little baffling...
As JPMorgan themselves continue to push into the blockchain space.
They launched their own JPM coin back in 2017 (available for institutional clients).
They also launched their own blockchain platform Onyx in 2020.
To make matters worse, checkout the first minute of this video…
Looks like the banks are getting scared of crypto and the market share it’s taking… 😎
For the full article click here.
TOGETHER WITH THE PHENOM WEEKLY UPDATE ♟️
One reason we love crypto? The returns. 😍
In a bull market? No other asset can compete. It’s not uncommon to see 5x, 10x or even 100x plus returns.
With the Bitcoin Halving coming up, the next crypto bull-run is just around the corner.
That’s why we read The Phenom Update.
They share the best kept secrets on the latest DeFi & small-cap crypto trends. 🤫
The best part?
Just like us, they’re completely free.
Slam that big subscribe button and it’ll automatically add you to their list.
If you’re not a fan, you can always unsub. Nothin’ to lose. 🎉
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BITCOIN TO $200K, ETHEREUM TO $22K 😳
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the biggest catalyst to the crypto space is nearly here.
The spot Bitcoin ETF.
Yesterday’s poll results were a little alarming… 😅
The approval window sits between January 5th - January 10th.
Less than 1 month until the window opens. 🪟
This begs the question:
How high will the ETF send Bitcoin?
That’s what asset management firm: Apollo Crypto, broke down in their latest report.
The report was written by founder & chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson.
Henrik has decades of experience in financial markets & on Wall Street.
His speciality?
Quantitative analysis.
Here’s the predictions the 1500 word report makes:
The total US ETF market is worth $6.5 trillion. A reasonable assumption is that Bitcoin will capture 1% of this
This will see $65 billion flow into Bitcoin
Apollo argues this $65 billion will push Bitcoin to a market cap of $3.25 trillion.
At a $3.25 trillion market cap, Bitcoin would be worth $200,000 per coin.
Apollo doesn’t stop there. They also predict how this will impact the Ethereum price.
They predict that Ethereum will exhibit a similar beta to Bitcoin as it did during the 2020 / 2021 bull market.
From this table, you can see in the last bull run, Bitcoin increased by 4.8x whereas Ethereum increased by 9.8x.
“If the relationship holds for the coming cycle (admittedly a big if) and Bitcoin increases 5x (from US$40,000 to $200,000) then Ethereum would reach US$22,000.”
Bottom Line:
Price predictions such as this are fantastic. It gives us a sense of the potential magnitude that a spot Bitcoin ETF will have on the crypto market.
However, a word of warning before you mortgage your house & go all-in.
Predictions like this are riddled with issues.
They admittedly make a huge amount of assumptions, with a lot of uncertainty.
“We realise this is a bold estimate with a lot of uncertainty.”
With that said, fingers crossed Apollo Crypto are on the money. 😉🥂
To read the entire report to see all the assumptions made, check it out here.
HERE COMES THE MONEY 🤑
Recent Bitcoin price action has seen the majority of Bitcoin holders completely recover from the 2022 bear market.
Today we’ll be taking a look at the percent supply in profit for both short and long-term holders.
Some quick definitions:
Short-term holder (STH): Bitcoin held for less than 155 days
Long-term holder (LTH): Bitcoin held for more than 155 days
Keep in mind these metrics are purely focusing on whether or not a coin is in profit. The amount of profit isn’t taken into consideration. So a coin having a cost basis $0.01 less than the market price would be considered in profit.
2023 has seen the amount of long-term holders in profit increase from 56% to 84%.
Smashing through the long term average of 81.6%
From the chart above you can also see that breaking through this long term average is often a sign of a bull market transition. 🐂
But here’s the insane part:
95% of short-term holders are currently in profit. 😲
This is expected, as Bitcoin has had a fantastic five month streak.
From the chart above you can see that this level of profit is convincingly above the long term average of 57%.
What’s more is that this level of profit is typically associated with periods of strong upwards price movement (red highlighted sections).
Both of these charts tell us one thing.
We have well and truly left the recovery / accumulation phase and are now in the early days of a full blown bull run.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page.
The first commercial bitcoin transaction was for a pizza worth ___ BTC? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) 10,000 🥳
On May 22, 2010, a programmer, named Laszlo Hanyecz, paid a fellow forum user 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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