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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #814 brewin’ it up… 🧪🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more nerve-wracking than a ticking briefcase handcuffed to a man who can’t stop running… 🧳⏱️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: South Korean Exchange Accidentally Gives Away $43 Billion in Bitcoin - Users Had Five Minutes to Cash Out

Here’s an “interesting” story to start your week.

Imagine expecting $1.37 and getting $140 million instead.

That's exactly what happened on Friday when South Korean exchange Bithumb ran a promotional giveaway that went very, very wrong.

The exchange was supposed to send 2,000 Korean won to lucky winners (roughly $1.37).

Instead, it sent 2,000 BTC… Per person…

At the time, that was worth around $140 million each.

In total, 695 users were accidentally credited with 620,000 BTC - roughly $43 billion worth.

Luckily (or unluckily depending how you look at it…) Bithumb caught the error within five minutes. But that was plenty of time for some users to try their luck.

A handful of recipients immediately started selling their surprise windfall. The flood of sell orders crashed Bitcoin's price on Bithumb to $55,000 - far below the $70,000 it was trading at everywhere else.

Financial authorities estimate users managed to sell over $2 billion worth of phantom Bitcoin before accounts were frozen.

Bithumb has since recovered 99.7% of the mistakenly credited funds.

The remaining 1,788 BTC that had already been sold? The company covered it from its own pocket.

"Bithumb's holdings of all virtual assets are 100% equivalent to or exceeding user deposits," the exchange said.

No customer assets were lost. No hacking was involved. Just one very expensive typo.

To smooth things over, Bithumb announced compensation:

$15 for anyone connected during the incident, full reimbursement plus 10% for users who sold at low prices, and seven days of fee-free trading.

Not quite $140 million. But better than nothing. 🚀

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Tom Lee just described the current crypto environment in two words: rock bottom.

Tom Lee is a Wall Street veteran who’s spent decades studying cycles, liquidity, and market psychology.

To put it bluntly, he’s seen a LOT of cycles. So when he talks about sentiment, it’s worth listening.

Here’s exactly what he just said on CNBC:

And he didn’t sugarcoat the damage:

Sound familiar?

Lee says he heard the exact same panic after FTX.

But here’s the part most people forget.

Every single one recovered.

Now look at the setup.

Waterfall decline.
Sentiment collapse.
People questioning the entire asset class.

According to Lee, that’s usually when bottoms form.

This is the part of the cycle that feels the worst.

Historically… it’s also been where the next move starts. 🎢

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 69.12% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

That's up from 69.09% two weeks ago. Basically flat.

The story here is rotation, not movement.

The youngest LTH cohort (6-12 months) barely budged. The 1-2 year band shed 0.12% as some mid-cycle holders trimmed.

But that supply didn't leave the system.

The 2-3 year group ticked up. The 3-5 year band jumped 0.14% as coins matured into stronger hands.

The deep storage bands remain rock solid. The 5-7 year cohort shed a bit, but the 7-10 year group absorbed it and then some. The 10+ year supply pushed even higher to 17.09%.

This is what stability looks like. Coins aging across bands whilst the overall long-term base holds firm.

Bottom line: supply stays locked, conviction stays intact, and the foundation keeps strengthening. 💎

CoinShares says only 10,200 BTC face real quantum risk, pushing back on 'overblown' estimates. CoinShares said quantum computers would have to become 100,000 times more powerful, which could take a decade of scientific progress, to break Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC's downside volatility is a feature, not a crisis, says hedge funder. The selloff reflects bitcoin’s built-in volatility and market misreads of Fed policy, not structural weakness, aruged Bode.

Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison Sparks New $50,000 BTC Price Prediction. Bitcoin analysis still sees $50,000 as a likely macro bottom target despite the latest BTC price rebound.

Strategy, BitMine, Coinbase Shares Chart Major Rebound as Bitcoin Stabilizes. Strategy (MSTR), BitMine (BMNR), and Coinbase (COIN) helped lead the crypto stock rebound as Bitcoin bounced back from a dip near $60K.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: 2013 🥳

The first Bitcoin ATM was installed in Vancouver, Canada in October 2013 at Waves Coffee House. Made by Robocoin, it allowed users to buy and sell Bitcoin for cash.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.