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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin briefly tops $82,000 on improving macro conditions

Recently, we’ve been saying that $80,000 was Bitcoin's confidence line.

It still is…

Bitcoin is trading around $81,000 at the time of writing, which means the market hasn't exactly blasted through the level... but it also hasn't lost it.

That matters after today's move.

BTC briefly pushed above $82,200, its highest level since May 6, then cooled back toward the mid $80Ks.

The constructive part is simple: buyers keep showing up around the same level.

$80,000 has gone from resistance to the line bulls need to defend. Hold it, and the market can keep treating the recovery as alive. Lose it cleanly, and the whole mood probably flips again.

But…

There are still a few reasons not to get carried away.

Santiment says bullish crypto chatter has picked up, which can be a short-term warning when everyone gets confident at once.

Some traders are still watching the $78,000-$80,000 area as support if the market pulls back.

And Tuesday's CPI print could easily make risk assets nervous if inflation comes in hotter than expected.

But today's setup isn't only about the charts.

The CLARITY Act is heading toward a Senate markup this week, and that gives Bitcoin a real policy catalyst in the background.

The Block's analysts also framed the macro backdrop as cautiously supportive, with easing Middle East tension helping reduce the immediate oil and inflation scare, even while Fed uncertainty and sticky inflation still matter.

If Washington moves closer to a clearer crypto rulebook, it supports the broader story we've been tracking all year: crypto is getting pulled deeper into the mainstream financial system.

So yes, Bitcoin is still stuck near $80,000.

But it's stuck there in a much more interesting way than it was a few days ago.

Last Friday's poll was split:

So today’s question is simpler:

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Cut through the noise

Michale Saylor just clarified the most controversial line of his Bitcoin career.

On Strategy's latest earnings call, he revealed that the company would sell Bitcoin to fund STRC dividend payments if needed. The internet exploded.

After years of "never sell your Bitcoin" it sounded like a complete 180.

But, in his latest Bitcoin Magazine interview, Saylor cleaned it up.

The math defuses the panic. Buy 10. Sell 1. Net 9.

Keep stacking.

Strategy isn't liquidating. It's running a yield machine that throws off small amounts of Bitcoin while absorbing massive amounts back through STRC issuance.

The flow is overwhelmingly one direction: into Strategy's treasury.

Catchy slogans go viral. Math wins long term.

And the math still says Saylor is still buying big. 💎

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 26.30% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 26.72% two weeks ago. The slow bleed continues.

Daily activity picked up slightly and the 1 week to 1 month band expanded - signs of fresh participation trickling back in at the front end. New buyers are entering, just not in size.

The 1-3 month cohort shed 0.67% - the largest contraction across any band. Those coins aged forward into the 3-6 month group, which ticked higher as it absorbs supply from below.

That 3-6 month group keeps swelling. It's now the largest short-term cohort by far at 13.83%, packed with coins sitting just weeks away from crossing into long-term holder territory.

Think of it as a queue building at the exit. Every two weeks, a chunk of that supply graduates across the six-month line and becomes part of the long-term base. And it's not being replaced fast enough by new entrants at the front.

The short-term pool has dropped below 26.5% for the first time this year. The market's reactive supply keeps compressing - leaving less and less available for panic-driven selling. 💎

Canton Network creator targets $300M in capital raise. Digital Asset Holdings is reportedly raising at a $2 billion valuation, with a16z Crypto leading a round tied to institutional tokenization infrastructure.

Ethereum down 35% versus Bitcoin in a year: Will the ETH price downtrend continue? ETH/BTC weakness remains the story, with rising ETH reserves on Binance while Bitcoin exchange reserves fall.

Strategy CEO Phong Le says company will sell BTC only in specific cases. Phong Le said Strategy would sell Bitcoin only when it improves Bitcoin per share or handles specific dividend/tax needs.

Morgan Stanley's bitcoin ETF absorbs $194 million in first month with no net daily outflows. Most of MSBT's capital came from self-directed clients since the bank's 16,000-person financial advisor network is not yet cleared to recommend the fund.

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Trivia Answer: 21 million BTC 🥳

Bitcoin's supply cap is one of its core design features. New coins are issued through mining rewards, but the total supply is programmed to never exceed 21 million BTC.

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