GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #980 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more fired up than a sports agent bellowing four words down the phone for the only client who didn't fire him… 💰📞

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs Notch Seven-Day Winning Streak as 2026 Flows Turn Green

Friday we asked where you stand on Bitcoin, and 64% of you leaned bullish, with just 12% bearish.

The weekend didn't pay either side.

Bitcoin spent it pinned between about $83,700 and $85,000, never far from where Friday left it.

Nearly a quarter of you picked "chop and range," and you called it.

(That was also the last time we'll ask it that way. Some of you told us the question was getting stale, so from this Friday it changes every week.)

Bitcoin slipped below the weekend's floor as the week opened, after President Trump wouldn't rule out more strikes on Iran.

The flows are on the bulls' side, though, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.4 billion last week, their biggest week since October.

That tipped their 2026 total back into the black, after those same funds sat nearly $6 billion in the red for the year back in July.

The buying showed up every day, from close to $1 billion on Monday down to $134.5 million on Friday, the seventh straight session of inflows.

BlackRock's fund took $1.2 billion of it and Fidelity's another $700 million.

Bloomberg's James Seyffart puts the average ETF holder's cost basis at $81,722.

(That's the average price they paid, so with Bitcoin above it, the typical fund investor is finally in profit.)

For most of this year those investors have been underwater, and a rally back to breakeven usually meets a wave of people selling just to get their money back.

Bitcoin has sat above that line since last Monday, and the funds took in money in every one of those sessions…

The buying still couldn't carry Bitcoin back to $87,000, where it was turned back midweek as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%.

Bond yields are still capping the price, but the investors most likely to sell at breakeven have spent the week buying instead. 🚀

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Fred Krueger reckons he can explain Bitcoin's whole last cycle with one number.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

Here's what he posted:

His rule of thumb is that about 300,000 BTC of net buying doubles the price, and the same amount of net selling halves it.

(Net buying means the coins new buyers take off the market, minus what existing holders sell into it.)

He fits it to both halves of the cycle.

In the run from about $30,000 to $120,000 after the ETFs were announced, he estimates institutions bought 1.2 million BTC while longtime holders sold 600,000, which leaves 600,000 net and two doublings.

On the way back down to $60,000, those early holders sold another 600,000 and Strategy bought about 300,000, so 300,000 net sold and one halving.

Half of what Wall Street bought in the bull run went to soaking up coins from people who'd held since the early days, which is why his count weighs the sellers as heavily as the buyers.

Last week's $2.4 billion of ETF buying works out to roughly 28,000 BTC at today's price, under a tenth of what his rule needs for a doubling.

It's a rough fit to a single cycle, built on his own estimates, and the longtime-holder selling is the hardest part of it to measure.

It still tells you where to look, because every coin the early holders stop selling is one the ETFs no longer have to cover…

On Krueger's maths, getting from here to around $170,000 takes 300,000 more coins bought than sold. 🧮

Let's kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins, with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 10+ years.

Today we're focusing on long-term holders (LTHs), defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here's how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 80.82% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 💎

Down from 81.03% two weeks ago, a 0.21% dip that hands back last fortnight's gain and then some.

That's roughly 42,000 Bitcoin slipping back under the six-month line.

The front mostly aged, with the 6-12 month band giving up 0.44% and the 1-2 year band picking up 0.41% as those coins turned a year old.

The real leak came from the middle, where the 2-3 year band shed 0.17% and the 3-5 year band another 0.03%.

Those coins didn't turn up further out, with the 5-7 year and 7-10 year bands sitting exactly where they were two weeks ago.

When coins leave a band and never reach an older one, the likeliest explanation is that they were spent.

Every coin in the 2-3 year band last moved between September 2023 and September 2024, when Bitcoin traded well below today's price.

The long-term base still holds more than 80% of supply, but some of the two-to-three-year coins are starting to change hands. 💎

Bitget hacker moves $83 million in stolen XRP that Ripple cannot freeze. Bitget raised its theft estimate to $387.5 million and says bitcoin withdrawals resume Sept. 28, with other tokens following by Oct. 2.

‘It’s really not just a blockchain anymore’: Vitalik Buterin maps Ethereum’s path to 2030. Buterin called next year's Hegota upgrade likely Ethereum's last "normal" fork and targets finality of 8 to 32 seconds by 2030.

Bitcoin's Quantum Problem: Three Ways Researchers Are Trying to Fix It. StarkWare says an open competition cut the estimated cost of a quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction from about $320 to roughly $67 in one week.

Kalshi loses appeal, setting up potential Supreme Court case. A unanimous 6th Circuit panel sided with Ohio and Tennessee on sports contracts, splitting from a 3rd Circuit ruling that let Kalshi operate in New Jersey.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt 🥳

The phrase long predates crypto and was famously used to describe IBM's sales tactics in the 1970s. In crypto it means negative news or rumours that scare holders into selling.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.