🥜 Simple hack to improve your Crypto strategy

PLUS: Coinbase slams SEC

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GM to all 14,694 of you. Crypto Nutshell #114 dashin’ through. 🦌 🥜 

We’re the crypto newsletter that's less chaotic than a group of rebels trying to survive in a zombie apocalypse... 🧟‍♂️🏚️

Today, we’ll be going over:

  • 🥊 Coinbase calls out SEC

  • 🧠 How to improve your Crypto strategy

  • 🧐 Stuck in the middle

  • 🤑 And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

Prices as at 4:50am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

COINBASE CALLS OUT SEC 🥊 

BREAKING: Coinbase pushes SEC to respond to crypto exchange’s petition for rulemaking within 30 days

Top US crypto exchange Coinbase has called out the SEC. Coinbase wants the SEC to respond to a rulemaking petition submitted last year.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal had this to say:

“We’ve filed our response with the Third Circuit. Tl;dr: the SEC’s unilluminating “update” is mere bureaucratic pantomime and confirms that nothing short of mandamus will prompt the agency to take its obligations seriously.”

Paul Grewal

A mandamus is an order from a higher court to a lower court, requiring the latter to perform its duty.

Basically, Coinbase just wants the SEC to do it’s job. 😅

The SEC recently sued Coinbase for operating as an unregistered security exchange.

However, the SEC has never explained how the laws they enforce apply to crypto assets...

“For more than a year, the SEC has refused to act on Coinbase’s petition to begin rulemaking to clarify how in its view the securities laws apply to digital assets.”

Excerpt from Coinbase filing 

Coinbase has been particularly vocal when it comes to crypto regulation. They just want the SEC to clarify laws surrounding digital assets. 

It’s a simple request…

For more on this story checkout this article.

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HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CRYPTO STRATEGY 🧠

Raoul Pal was one of the first analysts to cover Bitcoin.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2013 paper he wrote:

“It’s either worth zero or it’s worth a truly outstanding amount of money.”

Raoul Pal, 2013

Raoul estimated at the time that Bitcoin could be worth upwards of $1 million per coin.

So he bought in. His first buy-in price was ~$200.

Raoul then sold out in 2017 at ~$2,000 over concerns about the forking wars.

He then entered back in to Bitcoin in 2020 with a buy price of $6,500 and has been long ever since.

Sounds like he did pretty good, right?

In his latest interview, Raoul broke down why he played it completely wrong. Due to his strategy, he’s missed out on a fortune.

Raoul went back and analysed his buys & sells. If he had just held on to his original position - he would have done 5x better.

If he had added to his positions during the depths of the bear markets?

He would have done 25x better.

Raoul’s advice to crypto investors?

Don’t try and be cute. Buy & then do nothing. Focus on the highest probability bets. Add to your positions when everyone else is panicking.

“I used to try having a basket of crypto, but really what you end up with is a bunch of shrapnel in your wallet that you don't care about. So I'm like, listen, I'm just gonna keep the focused bets on the things that have the highest probability. Bitcoin, ETH, Solana. I'm pretty comfortable with those bets.”

Raoul Pal

STUCK IN THE MIDDLE 🧐 

Today we’re taking a look at the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio. This metric calculates the difference between unrealized profit and loss for all coins.

Values greater than 0 indicate investors are in profit. 🤑

The colours relate to market psychology levels:

  • Red: extreme market fear and panic selling (perfect time to buy)

  • Yellow: neutral market sentiment (accumulation)

  • Blue: extreme market greed (perfect time to sell)

Bitcoin’s price has recovered nicely since the market bottom of November 2022.

However the NUPL has been stuck in the neutral yellow zone for the majority of the year. Since the markets recovery, price action has been quite "boring". We haven't seen any significant shifts in unrealized profit/loss.

Currently for the whole Bitcoin network, NUPL stands at 0.26. Indicating that the average Bitcoiner is in profit.

Unfortunately for short-term holders (STH) things aren’t looking so good…

Currently the STH NUPL is at -0.035, which indicates on average STH’s are in loss. 😥

The only positive takeaway for STH’s is that this NUPL is just barely negative. A small price rally above $28,000 would turn the NUPL positive once again.

Long-term holders (LTH) on the other hand are chilling.

Currently the LTH NUPL is at 0.23, which indicates on average LTH’s are in profit. 😁

Bottom Line: Historically, yellow zones has been times of accumulation.

The smart money accumulates as much as they can during yellow zones. And they only start to lock in profits once this metric turns green.

We recommend checking in on this metric every now and then. It’s useful to get a quick understanding of where we are in the market cycle. 😎

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Following on from yesterday’s question. In what year did Ethereum first break $100?

  • A) 2015

  • B) 2012

  • C) 2017

  • D) 2016

Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: C) 2017🥳 

ETH prices hit $100 for the first time in May 2017

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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